The re-urbanisation of business and innovation Opportunities and imperatives in the next cycle

Transcription

1 The re-urbanisation of business and innovation Opportunities and imperatives in the next cycle DrTim Moonen September 2016, Amsterdam 1

2 A show of hands In which of these areas do you think architecture can have the biggest impact worldwide in the next 30 years? Social cohesion Productivity and innovation Sustainability Liveability Identity Resilience 2

3 Cities Research Center I 2015 Globalisation and Competition: The New World of Cities Local&Economic& Leadership Density: drivers, dividends and debates Technology, Real Estate and the Innovation Economy September 2015 June 2015 Authors: Prof Greg Clark Senior Fellow, ULI Europe Authors: Prof Greg Clark Senior Fellow, ULI Europe Dr Tim Moonen Director of Intelligence, The Business of Cities Emily Moir Director, The Business of Cities Ltd 3

4 A critical moment for the future of cities We are one third of the way through a 100 year cycle of urbanisation. At the end of which global population will stabilise and c.85% of people will live in cities.....and the system of cities will be established for the next century So the decisions we make about our cities over the next 30 years are of critical importance 4

5 3 fundamental options for global population growth and urbanisation Allow Cities to Sprawl Build New Cities (or Districts) Densify Existing Cities

6 The new cycle for cities and the global economy 6

7 7

8 Growth since Source: Brookings Global Metro Monitor (2015) 8

9 The new mobility Innovators Investors Film & TV Visitors Institutions Firms Research Events and Festivals 9

10 Re-urbanisation in all its forms 10

11 Business and Cities: the key trends Cities are emerging markets for businesses Businesses are (Re)Urbanising The rise of Tradable Urban Services Businesses rebranding for city markets Cities are hubs of business innovation Businesses restructuring to meet city goals 11

12 Rise of Tradable Urban Services City building as a tradable economic cluster Businesses meeting urbanisation needs Internationalisation Paris: Water, Waste and Energy to African cities London: Architecture and Urban Design Worldwide Sydney: Engineering and construction to Gulf cities 12

13 Different types of Globalising Cities Established World Cities Emerging World Cities New World Cities High quality of life Specialised centres Port & airport cities Visitor destinations Knowledge hub Re-emerging capital cities New gateway cities 13

14 Leadership imperatives for each type of city Established World Cities Emerging World Cities New World Cities Population Maintain population growth from international in-migration. Implement a more managed approach to population growth and to rural migration. Build an alliance around talent attraction. Housing Boost new supply in housing markets and confront NIMBY-ist tendencies. Provide attractive entry level housing efficiently and quickly enough. Monitor housing range and affordability to suit under 35s. Inequality Address challenges of urban under-class. Tackle polarisation of income and service access. Ensure a strong focus on inclusive growth via skills development and mixed-use housing. Sustainability Tackle climate change adaptation and resilience. Reduce vulnerability to climate change, flooding, earthquakes. Active leadership on energy efficiency and mix, low pollution, green economy, resilience. Land Undertake big redevelopment efforts to shift from old to new modes and recycle land effectively. Rationalise land use and spatial governance to achieve coherent urban and metropolitan forms. Agreed spatial strategy managed by lead agency. Ensure projects are investment ready. Business framework Maintain competitive business climate and tax regime and IP environment. Improve productivity and business climate, especially legal and regulatory framework. Focus on transparency and confidence. Improve information and co-ordination. Foster start-up growth

15 New CBDs and innovation districts NEW JERSEY Manhattan Applied Sciences Campus Bronx NEW YORK Silicon Alley F-Train Corridor DUMBO Queens Brooklyn Navy Yard Industry City Brooklyn Army Terminal Brooklyn Corporate Economy 1 st Cycle Innovation Economy 2 nd Cycle Innovation Economy 15

16 Brooklyn Navy Yard Building

17 ESTABLISHED WORLD CITIES London Paris New York Tokyo Hong Kong Singapore Sydney Toronto Beijing Shanghai Seoul Dubai Dubai Santiago Sao Paulo Moscow Johannesburg Mumbai Bangkok Ho Chi Minh City Jakarta EMERGING WORLD CITIES Tel Aviv Berlin Cape Town Boston Barcelona Miami Vienna Brisbane Copenhagen Vancouver Oslo Auckland Manchester NEW WORLD CITIES 17

18 San Diego IDEA District 18

19 The rise of airport districts Songdo, Seoul Urban Hub 19

20 Different types of Globalising Cities Established World Cities Emerging World Cities New World Cities High quality of life Specialised centres Port & airport cities Visitor destinations Knowledge hub Re-emerging capital cities New gateway cities 20

21 The New Silk Roads 21

22 The Big Drivers and Disruptors 22

23 The key disruptors AI 23 The Global War For Talent

24 and the demographic disruptors Millennials Ageing populations 24

25 = Four new economies 1. Sharing Economy 2. Circular Economy 3. Experience Economy 4. Platform Economy 25

26 = Four new economies 1. Sharing Economy 2. Circular Economy 3. Experience Economy 4. Platform Economy 26

27 = Four new economies FROM 1. Sharing Economy TO 2. Circular Economy 3. Experience Economy 4. Platform Economy 27

28 = Four new economies 1. Sharing Economy 2. Circular Economy 3. Experience Economy 4. Platform Economy 28

29 = Four new economies FROM 1. Sharing Economy 2. Circular Economy TO 3. Experience Economy 4. Platform Economy 29

30 Many opportunities, but Singapore Hong Kong Hamburg, Berlin, Zurich Stockholm, Vienna, Oslo Amsterdam, Shanghai, Beijing New York, Tokyo, Seoul Barcelona, Milan, Mumbai Toronto, Auckland, Sao Paulo London, Manchester (post-2017) Other UK cities, Dublin, NZ cities World Economic Forum, 2016

31 Thermometer of city empowerment Singapore Hong Kong Hamburg, Berlin, Zurich Stockholm, Vienna, Oslo Amsterdam, Shanghai, Beijing New York, Tokyo, Seoul Barcelona, Milan, Mumbai Toronto, Auckland, Sao Paulo London, Manchester (post-2017) Other UK cities, Dublin, NZ cities

32 So what? The opportunities and imperatives in the new cycle 32

33 The journey to good density BAD HIGHER DENSITY GOOD HIGHER DENSITY DENSITY Monotonous Isolated Unmanaged Unliveable Conspicuous Polluting Ugly Inflexible Segregated Crowded Mixed use Connected Planned Spacious Liveable Incremental Designed Green Appropriate Cohesive BAD LOWER DENSITY GOOD LOWER DENSITY PLACE SUCCESS

34 The Tactics of Densification Regeneration of disused sites (e.g. London Kings Cross) Intensification of transport interchanges (e.g. Warszawa Zachodnia station) Redevelopment of existing buildings (e.g. Dresden s Prager Zeile) Different sites for densification Building higher in city centres (e.g. Birmingham Enterprise Zone) Suburban infill and expansion (e.g. Vallingby in Stockholm) Land reclamations and manmade peninsulas (e.g. Atakoy, Istanbul) 34

35 Positive Psychology of Popular Density Densification and opportunity For different age groups and points in life cycle Sharing economy and the shared city Trade off private space for public amenity Urban life-style & vitality Negotiated and incremental participation Identity and Belonging; urban character

36 A new equation on density Fundamentals Execution Momentum Leadership and vision Plan Tactics Multi-cycle approaches +" +" =" Scale Demand Progress on Densification Branding Financing, legal and land-use tools Positive psychology 36

37 7 new themes in cities i. Innovation space ii. Micro Housing iii. Super mixed use iv. Transport hubs v. Schools as anchors vi. Intensified public space vii. New generation of PPPs 37

38 7 new themes in cities i. Innovation space ii. Micro Housing iii. Super mixed use iv. Transport hubs v. Schools as anchors vi. Intensified public space vii. New generation of PPPs 38

39 7 new themes in cities i. Innovation space ii. Micro Housing iii. Super mixed use iv. Transport hubs v. Schools as anchors vi. Intensified public space vii. New generation of PPPs PNP Plaza, Pittsburgh 39

40 7 new themes in cities i. Innovation space ii. Micro Housing iii. Super mixed use iv. Transport hubs v. Schools as anchors vi. Intensified public space vii. New generation of PPPs Downtown Miami station plan 40

41 7 new themes in cities i. Innovation space ii. Micro Housing iii. Super mixed use iv. Transport hubs v. Schools as anchors vi. Intensified public space vii. New generation of PPPs Oslo Cancer Cluster Innovation Park 41

42 7 new themes in cities i. Innovation space ii. Micro Housing iii. Super mixed use iv. Transport hubs v. Schools as anchors vi. Intensified public space vii. New generation of PPPs 42

43 7 new themes in cities i. Innovation space ii. Micro Housing iii. Super mixed use iv. Transport hubs v. Schools as anchors Land value Value capture Master - planning Public land Public and private sector roles are changing and evolving Taxes Joint ventures Investment instruments vi. Intensified public space vii.new generation of PPPs Design Planning commissions Blended investments 43

44 Real Estate Owners and Operators Adopt service provider mindset. Prepare for continuous adaptation Align interests and build transparency between owners and users Provide hands-on stewardship Learn from customised environments Real Estate Investors Look to second districts in established cities as well as second cities. Understand innovation districts and their underpinnings. Redefine and build more core assets. Focus on total values and revenues, rather than rental multiples. Invest in the eco-system and enterprises, not just the RE. Cities Adopt innovation economy intelligence. Organise around anchor institutions and assets Consider total needs of innovation districts Put flexibility into land use planning. Support transition to new business models for operators.

45 Six ideas for Dutch architects 1. Build a brand around best practice in Dutch architecture 2. Intelligent strategy for target markets 3. Join and affiliate with the right urban networks 4. Adopt a total place agenda 5. Demonstrate popular density 6. Enhance co-ordination across the value chain 45

46 Thank you 46