Sustainable Consumption in Sustainable Cities how to realise the opportunity?

Transcription

1 Lahti Science Day th. November 2007 Sustainable Consumption in Sustainable Cities how to realise the opportunity? Friedrich Hinterberger President SERI

2 An e-presentation This presentation saves around 800 kg of natural resources! (compared to a trip Vienna-Lahti-Vienna) F. Lahti Science Day 2

3 Dr.Friedrich Hinterberger Who I am Born 1959 in Schwanenstadt/Upper Austria Studies : economics and statistics, Universität Linz, Austria PhD : Universität Gießen, Germany Wuppertal Institute : Project leader, later: acting director for Material Flows and Ecological Economics Since 1999: Founding President of the Sustainable Europe Research Institute among many other functions: member of the board of the Austrian Chapter of the Club of Rome F. Lahti Science Day

4 Profile Sustainable Europe Research Institute PanEuropean Network; Headquaters in 1090 Wien; currently 15 staff Euro annual turnover other offices in Germany, soon in F, GR,...? Themes: Ecological Economics, Production and Consumption, Globalisation, Science, Policy and Society, Quality of Life Research: Global, European and national Projects Communication: Public, new Media Consulting: Politics, NGOs, Business F. Lahti Science Day

5 Content 1. Limits to growth revisited 2. Measuring sustainability 3. Economic growth and well-being 4. Scenarios towards a sustainable future F. Lahti Science Day 5

6 Content 1. Limits to growth revisited 2. Measuring sustainability 3. Economic growth and well-being 4. Scenarios towards a sustainable future F. Lahti Science Day 6

7 The history of environmental concerns R.Carlson: The silent spring K.Boulding: Spaceship earth Meadows et al: Limits to growth 1972 Global 2000 F. Lahti Science Day 7

8 What is at stake? At the recently held annual meeting of the Club of Rome in Madrid, the outgoing IMF general secretary Rodrigo Rato talked about three serious risks to the world s economic growth: the instability of the financial markets, climate change, and demographic change. F. Lahti Science Day 9

9 Is there a Climate problem? (New) Limits to growth are still relevant! F. Lahti Science Day 12

10 World Oil Demand By Region By Sector MBD MBD The China Factor ME/AF 100 Power LA Emerging Asia 60 Transportation 40 Japan/Aus/NZ Russia/Caspian Europe North America Res/Comm Industrial

11 The global dimension Der Spiegel: A new cold war F. Lahti Science Day 14

12 Global change The linkages between environmental well-being, vulnerability and poverty emerged as a critical issue in Extreme weather events and new research and data were so dramatic that the year may prove a turning point in the urgency of our awareness and response (GEO, Yearbook 2006) The Munich Re Foundation, part of one of the world s leading reinsurance companies, estimated that 2005 had witnessed the largest financial losses ever as a result of weather-related natural disasters, at more than US$200 billion F. Lahti Science Day

13 Nightlights 2000 Nakicenovic, 2006 F. Lahti Science Day 19

14 Nightlights 2070 Nakicenovic, 2006 F. Lahti Science Day 20

15 Content 1. Limits to growth revisited 2. Measuring sustainability 3. Economic growth and well-being 4. Scenarios towards a sustainable future F. Lahti Science Day 21

16 Indicators you can t manage what you can t measure F. Lahti Science Day 22

17 Measuring what? Achievement of pre-defined goals! F. Lahti Science Day 23

18 Sustainable development Sustainable development is a development that seeks to meet the demand of the present generation without compromizing the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The Brundtland Report (1987) F. Lahti Science Day 24

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21 Competition for attention Frontpage indicators Economic (GDP) growth (Un) employment ( environment )??? F. Lahti Science Day 30

22 From Inputs to Outputs Products and services F. Lahti Science Day 31

23 Measuring the environment Material flows and ecological rucksacks Ecological footprints CO2 rucksacks Water rucksacks F. Lahti Science Day 32

24 Competition for attention Frontpage indicators Economic (GDP) growth (Un) employment Total material consumption, ecological footprint etc. F. Lahti Science Day 33

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26 Global Used Extraction by Material Category billion tons Fossil Fuels Metals Ind. & Const. Minerals Biomass F. Lahti Science Day 60

27 Global perspectives Domestic material extraction in EU-25 (2005) Global (domestic) material extraction (2005) EU Total: 7.2 billion t Per capita: 15.7 t Per (EU-12): 0.77 kg World 58.3 billion t 9.0 t 0.?? kg F. Lahti Science Day 62

28 Results De-coupling of GDP and resource extraction (1980 = 100) Quelle: Giljum et al F. Lahti Science Day 63

29 CO2 rucksack of food CO2 emited by transport of food (imported vs. domestic production) Quelle: Der Standard, nach Berechnungen von SERI, 2007 F. Lahti Science Day 65

30 Ecological Footprint Mathis Wackernagel and William Rees (1992) Sum of all impacts on the biocapacity through the human use of natural resources Scale: product, city, region, national and global level Calculation Unit: Area Physical limits of the Planet! Material and Energy Use converted into Area F. Lahti Science Day Dr. Stefan 71

31 Ecological footprint Agriculture Forestry Pasture F. Lahti Science Day 73

32 Ecological footprint Agriculture Forestry Pasture F. Lahti Science Day 74

33 Global Overshoot Growth of > 80% from 1960 to 2003 Global Ecological Footprint, : 25% Overshoot (1,25 Planets) long term destruction of natural capital Source: WWF et al., 2006 F. Lahti Science Day 77

34 Extraction Production/Trade Consumption F. Lahti Science Day 79

35 Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity by Region (2001) Source: WWF et al., 2006 F. Lahti Science Day 81

36 CO 2 -Emissions CO 2 -Emissions (in tons) per capita, 2001 F. Lahti Science Day 87

37 Today: unequal distribution 20% reiche 80% arme Verbrauchen Verbrauchen 20% der Ressourcen 80% der Ressourcen Resource use today: 60 Mrd t F. Lahti Science Day 89

38 Fair share - unsustainable 20% reiche 80% arme Verbrauchen Verbrauchen 80% der Ressourcen 20% der Ressourcen Equal resource use: 240 Mrd t F. Lahti Science Day 90

39 Fair share - sustainable 20% reiche 80% arme Verbrauchen Verbrauchen 80% der Ressourcen 20% der Ressourcen Equal resource use: 30 Mrd t F. Lahti Science Day 91

40 eco-efficiency More well-being less resource use! F. Lahti Science Day 93

41 Some elements Durable products 1 Euro buys 3 kg of nature Meat requires 10x more resources, emissions,... Slowfood Simplify your life! New, dematerialized, technologies Regional products Product- service-systems More leisure, less stress All this has important consequences and sets the requirements for (eco-)innovation and social systems! F. Lahti Science Day 100

42 Does technology save the environment? F. Lahti Science Day 101

43 All in one F. Lahti Science Day 102

44 Or like this? F. Lahti Science Day 103

45 Content 1. Limits to growth revisited 2. Measuring sustainability 3. Economic growth and well-being 4. Scenarios towards a sustainable future F. Lahti Science Day 106

46 Questioning the growth paradigm Economic growth is, together with population growth, an important driver of global environmental change While the poorer parts of the world clearly need significantly more income to improve their standard of living, more income in Europe, America and Japan makes less people happy Stress and loneliness increase, consumption looks more and more like an addiction, illness is increasingly a result of excess (obesity, heart disease etc) and not of lack. F. Lahti Science Day 107

47 Eco-sufficiency While eco-efficiency aims to improve the effectiveness of material, energy, and land use, eco-sufficiency aims at reducing negative environmental consequences through a reduction of the demand for material consumer goods. Eco-sufficiency or strong sustainable consumption requires changes in infrastructures and choices as well as a questioning of the levels and drivers of consumption. F. Lahti Science Day 108

48 Sustainable development Sustainable development is a development that seeks to meet the demand of the present generation without compromizing the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. F. Lahti Science Day 111

49 or Sustainable development is a development that allows for happiness of the present generation without compromizing the ability of future generations to be happy. F. Lahti Science Day 112

50 A first step! The renewed European Strategy for Sustainable Development (EU SDS achieved under the Austrian Presidency): Europeans value quality of life Well-being and quality of life as an overarching principle various references throughout the document... (eg. on public health) F. Lahti Science Day 122

51 WHAT makes us happy? Security of person Security of health Security of slow time / leisure economy Belongingness (neighbourhood / spirituality) Tim O'Riordan F. Lahti Science Day 124

52 The role of the economy The good economy should serve the good life! E.Phelps, Nobel laureate in economics (2006) F. Lahti Science Day 125

53 Beyond GDP Correcting GDP -> towards a Green GDP Long lists of indicators Combined indicators DIRECT measurement of quality of life/wellbeing/happiness Relate these figures to environmental indicators F. Lahti Science Day 126

54 GDP and well-being (1) GDP and Life Satisfaction % 180% 160% 140% Life Satisfaction GDP 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% F. Lahti Science Day 127

55 Content 1. Limits to growth revisited 2. Measuring sustainability 3. Economic growth and well-being 4. Scenarios towards a sustainable future F. Lahti Science Day 138

56 Is Europe sustainable? Modelling opportunities and limits for restructuring Europe towards sustainability Funded by the 5th Framework Programme of the European Union (sub-programme environment and sustainable development) Endorsed by the Industrial Transformation Project of the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP-IT) F. Lahti Science Day 139

57 Key research questions What are the effects of environmental policy measures oriented towards higher resource and energy efficiency on economic policy goals such as growth, competitiveness and employment? How effective are different policy measures to reduce environmental pressures (natural resource use / energy and climate)? What are the impacts of the implementation of these policy measures for other world regions? F. Lahti Science Day 140

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59 Scenario results from the MOSUS project ( win-win-win is possible! reduced environmental pressure increased economic growth more jobs Note: Large differences between countries! F. Lahti Science Day 144

60 But Rebound effects! GDP increases by 41 % Resource productivity increases by 49 % Domestic extraction reduces only by 5 % This might give room for further decrease of environmental impacts F. Lahti Science Day 150

61 Sustainability problems Overconsumption? (in highly industrialized parts of the world) How to avoid rebound effects? F. Lahti Science Day 151

62 How to realize this opportunity? Sustainable Cities need sustainable urban life styles! F. Lahti Science Day 152

63 Integrated policies UNEMPLOY MENT and SOCIAL SECURITY Reduction of annual working times and increased flexibility Social security through negative income tax (basic income) ENVIR RONMENT AL CHANGE and PUBLIC FIN NANCE Replace income tax (partly) by material input tax, CO2 tax subsidy-shift, regulations Quelle: F. Lahti Science Day 154

64 mixed work mixed qualifications, income mixes Paid work (full time, part time; selfemployed, unemployed) Work as self-provider and self educator Caring work Volun ntary work in the comm munity F. Lahti Science Day 155

65 Less paid work = less income = less (material) consumption F. Lahti Science Day 156

66 A Scenario UNEMPLOY MENT 10,5 % 3,1 % GOVERNME NT-DEFICIT +/- 0 WORKING TIME 37,5 h 30 h F. Lahti Science Day 157

67 Beyond GDP Reduce our Environmental Space! Increase our Well-Being / quality of life! Gross Domestic Product (GDP)??? F. Lahti Science Day 159

68 What do we need for all this? Policy and business action Civil society's and individual responsibility Communication and education Cultural creativity And the right facts and figures (measuring SD!) F. Lahti Science Day 183

69 MICRO: companies and households Multi-level sustainability MESO: industries regions networks MAKRO: countries EU world META: institutions F. Lahti Science Day 184

70 ... In a holistic way heart brain spirit hands F. Lahti Science Day 186

71 Kiitos! Thank you for your attention! Presentation will be available for download at F. Lahti Science Day 187