Sustainable Urban Metabolism for Europe SUME

Transcription

1 FP 7 Research Project: Sustainable Urban Metabolism for Europe SUME 1 Christof Schremmer, SUME project coordinator ÖIR Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (Vienna)

2 Project duration: 11/ /2011 SUME Project Partners & Case study cities Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (OIR, coordinator)) University of Porto, Faculty of Engineering (CITTA FEUP) Nordic Centre for Spatial Development (Nordregio) Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (FORTH) (SE) University of Newcastle upon Tyne (UNEW) Delft University of Technology (GB) (TU Delft) Klagenfurt University, Faculty for (PL) Interdisciplinary Studies (UNI-KLU) Potsdam Institute of Climate Change Research (PIK) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASIA) Warsaw (PT) School of Marseille Economics (FR) (SGH) (DE) Berlin (DE) Potsdam Inst. of Climate Change Impact (AT) (GR) (GR) (CN) Scenario Cities (Countries) SUME Project Partner AT PT SE GR UK NL AT DE CN PL 2 SUME coordinator

3 Background: Social Metabolism Social systems as thermodynamically open Energy and material flows into socio-economic system Internal energy and material flows Energy and material flows back to nature Solar energy Input raw material energy Biosphere (Eco-system) Output Waste emissions heat 3 Main operationalizations: Material and energy flows LCA Stocks and flows dynamics Heat emission radiation to space Spatial form of urban socio-economic systems

4 Challenges for urban development, viewed by an urban metabolism approach What are the developmental perspectives of European urban agglomerations is spatial terms what are potential impacts on the urban metabolic performance ( GHG, climate change, resource use)? Are there consistently better urban spatial structures/urban forms with respect to urban metabolism resource use? How can growth, change, rebuilding cities over time be steered towards a future improvement of the energy-material balance? What are the policies currently applied and how can there be a more comprehensive, resource-minded urban development? 4

5 SUME project: Workpackages ÖIR WP1 Scenarios of urban development in Europe IFF/PIK WP2 Spatially explicit modelling of urban metabolism WP3 Metabolic impact of urban development projects & restructuring CITTA WP4 Urban development policy guidelines UNEW 5

6 Urban form and development in Europe: Diversity of form and dynamics 6

7 Population density on urban fabric (II) 7 Brussels-Antwerp Luxembourg Bordeaux Helsinki-Espoo-Vantaa Toulouse Lille-Roubaix-Tourcoing-...-Roeselare Birmingham Lyon Stockholm Copenhagen Rotterdam Dublin Glasgow Cologne-Bonn Ruhr Area Katowitce-Zory Liverpool-Manchester Leeds - Bradford Newcastle upon Tyne - Sunderland Hamburg Amsterdam Nice-Cannes Porto Wirral Prague Budapest Berlin Milan-Varese Vienna London Lodz Munich Lisbon Rome Marseille Krakow Paris Torino Warsaw Palermo Sofia Madrid Naples Athens Bucharest Thessalonica Valencia Barcelona [inh/km2]

8 [radius perimeter / radius area] Fragmentation Index

9 SUME scenario approach 9

10 Urban development scenarios 2050: Inputs and guiding principles Spatial development paths for different cities, Main drivers: population and job change (projections), development of living space per capita Inputs: Land use, densities and building typologies, protected areas and restrictions, infrastructure plans, larger development projects, development plans 10

11 Urban development scenarios: Guiding principles BASE scenario as the continuation of current spatial trends (densities, spatial configurations) SUME scenario as a path of sustainable spatial planning focusing on the interrelations between urban form and metabolic performance SUME scenarios 4 planning principles: - gradual step up of densities in existing urban fabric - where attractive public transport can be provided - mix of functions (esp. in PT nodes) - enforced thermal renovation and reconstruction (combining replacement activities with densification) 11

12 Scenarios 2050: Overview Vienna Athens Marseille Munich Newcastle upon Tyne Oporto Stockholm 12

13 Vienna 1.8 Mio. population 2050: + 35 % Pop.+jobs/km2 in urban fabric:

14 BASE scenario 2050: urban fabric + 55% 14 Final Draft

15 SUME scenario 2050: urban fabric + 14% 15 Final Draft

16 urban fabric expansion reduced 16 Final Draft

17 Vienna: Inner-city re-development and new growth core 17

18 Inner-city densification/ new subway lines Old urban quarters, densely built up urban stock extension of floor space in cells near the new station scattered development of densification, structural change and some population losses Partly new urban quarters, space for new developments Concentration of structural change (office residential) Extensive increase of population and floor space, some structural changes 18

19 Athens 3.4 Mio. population 2050: + 9 % Pop.+jobs/km2 in urban fabric:

20 BASE scenario 2050: urban fabric + 24% 20 Final Draft

21 SUME scenario 2050: urban fabric + 0% 21 Final Draft

22 urban fabric expansion avoided 22 Final Draft

23 Munich 1.7 Mio. population 2050: + 18 % Pop.+jobs/km2 in urban fabric:

24 BASE scenario 2050: urban fabric + 41% 24 Final Draft

25 SUME scenario 2050: urban fabric + 13% 25 Final Draft

26 urban fabric expansion reduced 26 Final Draft

27 Newcastle upon Tyne 1.1 Mio. population 2050: + 12 % Pop.+jobs/km2 in urban fabric:

28 BASE scenario 2050: urban fabric + 7% 28 Final Draft

29 SUME scenario 2050: urban fabric + 0% 29 Final Draft

30 urban fabric expansion avoided 30 Final Draft

31 Oporto 1.3 Mio. population 2050: - 4 % Pop.+jobs/km2 in urban fabric:

32 BASE scenario 2050: urban fabric + 0% 32 Final Draft

33 SUME scenario 2050: urban fabric + 0% PT-focus 33 Final Draft

34 Shift within urban fabric 34 Final Draft

35 Stockholm 1.3 Mio. population 2050: + 44 % Pop.+jobs/km2 in urban fabric:

36 BASE scenario 2050: urban fabric + 47% 36 Final Draft

37 SUME scenario 2050: urban fabric +20% 37 Final Draft

38 urban fabric expansion reduced 38 Final Draft

39 Urban spatial development: BASE and SUME scenarios 39

40 Scenarios BASE and SUME: Growth of urbanized zones Vienna 14% 35% 54% Munich 17% 18% 41% Stockholm 22% 44% 50% Porto -4% 0% 0% Athens 0% 9% 24% Marseille 0% 19% 35% Newcastle 0% 8% 12% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 42

41 Urban form: Impact on transport ( energy) 43

42 The second challenge: Transport Vienna (AT) The share of car use for daily trips is influenced by the accessibility of good quality public transport Growing cities tend to expand spatially, they loose in compactness and access to public transport lines But: Urban spatial development scenarios show the trends, SUME scenarios show the potential to improve accessibility 44 Urbanized area

43 The potential to use public transportation, depending on spatial development : UDP indicator for BASE and SUME scenarios UDP = Integrated public transport potential indicator: 12 = max., 3 = min. 45

44 Urban building structures: Future options to reduce energy consumption for heating/cooling 47

45 Transforming urban building stock to reduce energy consumption Cities have different building age structures (and corresponding technical standards), which are decisive for the potential to reduce their energy consumption for heating Replacing after 80 years: the option for putting in zero-energy housing until 2050 in % of total is : 54 % 60 % 56 % 40 % 15 % 42% 51 % 48

46 Building age energy standards 49

47 How energy demand for space heating can be reduced : Scenarios BASE and SUME 50

48 Urban development scenarios: Key findings and conclusions 52

49 Conclusions European policy perspective Great diversity of starting situations and development perspectives BASE scenarios 2050 show urban spatial expansion faster than population dynamics, also in stagnant urban agglomerations with deteriorating access to public transport The SUME-scenario development principles show the large action space for cities over time, esp. in fast growing agglomerations - e.g. reducing of new urbanization in fast growing agglomerations up to 80% Major efforts in the urban agglomeration transport infrastructure will be needed, closely coupled with policies to spatially focus housing, residential and economic development links between sectoral policies needed 54

50 For the urban agglomerations: Key strategy is re-development of urbanized areas Re-development of existing urbanized areas with excellent public transport is the key to reduce large-scale future expansion A new policy-set beyond green-field and brown-field development is needed: 1 Building and energy-oriented renovation strategies + 2 attractiveness: better green area and open space quality of inner-city neighborhoods + 3 densification strategies and mobilizing building land in areas with lower densities and good access to public transport Large scale development-projects are to form new centers and nodes of transport as strategy to improve the overall urban diversity pattern (mix of uses, services) and give an impulse to densification 55

51 Inner-city densification/ old railway station I 56

52 Inner-city densification/ old railway station II 57

53 Urban re-densification in areas of good transport service 58

54 Thank you. 59