Better, faster railways: new maker and breaker of northern cities?

Transcription

1 Better, faster railways: new maker and breaker of northern cities? Professor Ian Wray Department of Geography and Planning and Heseltine Institute for Public Policy and Practice University of Liverpool November 2015

2 High Speed 1.5 If I were advising on what to do about the benighted English regions, I should upgrade plans for electrification of the Liverpool-Manchester- Leeds railway to an inexpensive high-speed project. This would need a small fleet of tilting Pendolino electric trains, some new tracks, station refurbishment and better signalling. It would bring together the labour markets of three huge cities FT, 21 January 2013

3 High Speed North: April 2014

4 The Hall Plan: Phasing 1 Liv Man electric + upgrade, December CP4 2 Man Leeds electric + upgrade inc. tilt trains + Northern hub 2018, + HSN reservation/eccles Stalybridge metrolink route. CP5 3 High speed Liverpool diversion for 20 miles, CP6 4 Line speed upgrades to Huddersfield, Wakefield, Leeds, CP7 5 Stalybridge Huddersfield base tunnel CP8 Details: Town and Country Planning, April 2014

5 Northern Crossrail or HS3?

6 Multi Polar or Bi Polar Growth? We question the suggestion that other English cities should complement London s growth, and that there should be multi-polar growth. Individually, no English city has sufficient scale London s continued growth should be supported but we would suggest a bi polar strategy involving two new super cities, one south and one north

7 Mansheffleedspool If our closely geographically located cities can have the best transport between them then benefits accrue to London could be repeated elsewhere. ManSheffLeedsPool this 7 million person region could generate agglomeration benefits. Jim O Neill, October 2014

8 Northern Powerhouse How do we build the Northern Powerhouse? By joining our northern cities together by providing the modern transport connections they need; by backing their science and universities; by backing their creative clusters; and giving them local power and control George Osborne, 23 June 2014

9 One North, July 2014

10 The detail

11

12

13

14

15 Some questions Who will commission the studies and how will it all relate to: National Infrastructure Plan? (not mentioned) DfT rail strategy? (especially HLOS) Rail North? (local government company for rail franchise decisions) Highways England plans? (semi privatised Highways Agency)

16 Who s who? One North Rail North Transport for the North Northern Powerhouse Combined Authorities and City Mayors

17 We have three big (northern) schemes at the moment the Manchester Sheffield road tunnel, a new transpennine line, and almost certainly a new Manchester Liverpool line October 2015

18 Paradigm shift Oh you just can t find a flat in the city centre. Everybody wants one Mid career finance professional

19

20 Reversing a 90 year US trend

21 Apparent saturation circa 1988?

22 The strange revival of British railways circa 1988?

23 Centripetal technology

24 Centripetal and centrifugal eras Centrifugal dynamics Motorways, uncongested roads, manufacturing dispersal, inner city collapse, new towns, suburbs, road served airports Centripetal dynamics Congested roads, rail revival, high speed rail, manufacturing job loss, city centre jobs and living, city centre cultural renaissance, change in values, rail served airports, regeneration and laptops

25 Where will they work? Percentage increase in jobs Great Britain + 3.9% City regions exc. core cities + 1.4% Core cities + 7.6% Source: Prof Alan Townsend, University of Durham, Prof Tony Champion, University of Newcastle

26 Where will they live? Creative workers Young people Residential Preference Suburban futures Urban values

27 Humans need not apply

28 Effective demand? Which places gain or lose? Where will the 25% live? How will the 25% travel?

29 Systems of cities High speed suburbs City living City hub system

30