patterns of contemporary suburbanization methods of analysis kiril stanilov Urban form contrasts Managing suburban growth in Seattle

Transcription

1 patterns of contemporary suburbanization case studies patterns of contemporary suburbanization methods of analysis Urban form contrasts Managing suburban growth in Seattle land uses 1960 commercial Question How have land use patterns changed as a result of new growth management policies enacted in 1990? industrial multi-family Sub-questions What happened prior to 1990? What is predicted to happen after 1990? What is actually happening? Data sources Documented patterns of land cover changes from Current zoning maps Residential building permits

2 land uses 1970 commercial industrial multi-family land uses 1980 commercial industrial multi-family land uses 1990 commercial industrial multi-family accessibility and commercial uses

3 planned land uses 2020 commercial industrial multi-family land uses 1990 commercial industrial multi-family land uses 2020 commercial industrial multi-family residential permits Consolidation and concentration of growth in large suburban centers Introduction of a new category of mixed uses Drastic increase in the amount of land zoned for multi family uses

4 multi-family permits conclusions Where growth management succeeds: concentrating most of the growth within the growth boundaries concentrating higher density residential development within and around large suburban centers Where growth management fails: allowing too much single family development outside of growth boundaries mixed use zones slow to appear concentrating ti too much development in large suburban centers of questionable scale ignoring development in medium and small suburban centers tri-county shopping center cincinnati ohio tri-county shopping center cincinnati ohio And you may ask yourself What is that beautiful house? And you may ask yourself Where does that highway go? And you may ask yourself Am I right?...am I wrong? And you may tell yourself MY GOD!...WHAT HAVE I DONE? (Talking Heads Once in a Lifetime ) Europe USA retail space (m2) per 1,000 residents 100 1,800 share of national retail sales 12% 50% Mall of America attracts more visitors than Disneyland and Grand Canyon combined Tri-county regional shopping center - 4 million square feet of retail space

5 zoning 1960 buildings 1956 zoning 1960 buildings 1962 zoning 1967 buildings 1962 zoning 1967 buildings 1973

6 zoning 1975 buildings 1973 zoning 1975 buildings 1980 zoning 1984 buildings 1980 zoning 1984 buildings 1990

7 zoning 1991 buildings 1990 zoning 1991 buildings 1997 zoning 1998 buildings 1997 moscow prague sofia ljubljana

8 suburbanization in eastern europe residential growth patterns prague Estonia, Latvia, Croatia, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria are amongst the most sprawling urban areas in Europe of the last two decades moscow sofia drivers of residential suburbanization dense built-up urban cores disinvestment in inner city communities need for closer association with habitat drivers of residential suburbanization demand for larger dwellings Western Europe 36 sq m Prague 18 sq m Bucharest 17 sq m Sofia 15 sq m prague moscow tallinn

9 shopping center retail space (m2) per 1,000 residents commercial suburbanization decentralization of offices suburbanization moscow prague environmental degradationd West London 1875 Bulgaria Slovakia Slovenia Poland Hungary Lithuania Latvia Estonia Czech Republic

10 West London 1895 West London 1915 West London 1935 West London 1960

11 West London 1985 West London km ha Road network Developed land class 1 class 2 class

12 industrial 1875 industrial 1895 industrial 1915 industrial 1935

13 industrial 1960 industrial 1985 industrial 2005 multi-family 1975

14 multi-family 1915 multi-family 1935 multi-family 1960 multi-family 1985

15 multi-family 2005 why cellular automata? CA/CS models are: particularly adept at dealing with spatial phenomena able to capture fine-scale dynamic adaptations able to capture complex behavior decentralized self-organization emergence abrupt change highly adaptable for a variety of contexts open to outside influences (constraints) highly visual environments key issues emphasis on application in urban planning stronger integration of public policies and planning stronger integration of transportation and infrastructure networks from cell-based to object-based modeling integration with agent-based modeling