Ted Perkins, Hydraulic Engineer US Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle District 8/9/2007
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1 Skagit River Revised Flood Insurance Study Levee Scenario Discussion Ted Perkins, Hydraulic Engineer US Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle District 8/9/2007
2 Skagit Levee Failure Scenarios Challenges of Defining Levee Failures FEMA Regulations Implementation of Regulations Comparison to Actual Observations
3 Past Skagit River Levee Failures
4 Isolated Levee Failures
5 Systemwide Levee Failures
6 General FEMA Levee Failure Policy
7 General FEMA Levee Failure Policy If the subject levee does not meet the requirements stated in Section of the NFIP regulations, as verified by the RPO, the Mapping Partner shall recompute the 1-percent-annualchance flood elevations as if the levee did not exist. (page H-11) H
8 One Levee System
9 General FEMA Levee Failure Policy The above procedures for the determination of BFEs and regulatory floodways also apply to the conditions where levees exist on both sides of the stream. In these cases, the evaluation shall include the possibility of simultaneous levee failure, failure of only the left side, and failure of only the right side, and shall consider simultaneous levee failure for both the BFE and regulatory floodway computations. The Mapping Partner shall contact the RPO for guidance on the evaluation of levee systems under these circumstances. (page H-12) H
10 Levees on Both Sides of the River
11 Levees Inundated
12 General FEMA Levee Failure Policy For levee systems where an area of land may be totally or partially surrounded by levees or where two or more flooding sources join that have levees on both sides of the stream, the Mapping Partner that is performing the analysis shall contact the RPO before proceeding with any analyses for levee failures. For these complex situations, the flood hazard in the area that would have been protected by the non-failed levee(s) must be based on selection of failure scenarios that yield the highest BFE or flood hazard. (page H-12) H
13 Surrounded by Levees
14 Levee Scenarios
15 All Levees Intact
16 All Levees Intact
17 Right Bank Levees Removed Burlington to Samish and Padilla Bays Dark Blue Area
18 Right Bank Levees on Mainstem and North Fork Skagit River Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
19 Right Bank Levees on Mainstem and North Fork Skagit River Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
20 Right Bank Levees Removed Flowpaths
21 Flowpath 1 Burlington Area (Page 60) FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SKAGIT COUNTY, WA FLOOD PROFILES SKAGIT RIVER DELTA, OVERBANK FLOW PATH LEGEND 500-YEAR FLOOD YEAR FLOOD 50-YEAR FLOOD GROUND ELEVATION CROSS SECTION LOCATION OVERBANK FLOWPATH DISTANCE IN FEET ABOVE POINT OF BIFURCATION TO FLOW PATHS 2 AND 3 01P ELEVATION (FEET NAVD 88) (AND UNINCORPORATED AREAS) PULVER ROAD FLOW SPLIT TO FLOW PATHS 2 AND 3 I-5 BURLINGTON NORTHERN RAILROAD S ANACORTES AVENUE N GARDNER ROAD & E FAIRHAVEN AVE START OF OVERBANK FLOWPATH 1 AT RM
22 Levee Failures 1917
23 Levee Failures 1917
24 Burlington 1917
25 Levee Failures 1909 and 1921
26 Levee Failures 1909
27 Levee Failures 1921
28 Newspaper Documentation Burlington Concrete Herald 12/17/1921 The entire city of Burlington was flooded to a depth of from three to five feet Concrete Flow = 240,000 cfs Skagit County Courier 12/2/1909 The water broke the dykes guarding Burlington and almost the entire town was flooded. In the residence districts the water was over eight feet deep in places. Concrete Flow = 260,000 cfs
29 FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SKAGIT COUNTY, WA FLOOD PROFILES SKAGIT RIVER DELTA, OVERBANK FLOW PATH Flowpath 2 Samish Area (Page 61) LEGEND YEAR FLOOD YEAR FLOOD 50 - YEAR FLOOD GROUND ELEVATION CROSS SECTION LOCATION STREAM DISTANCE IN FEET FROM SAMISH BAY 02P ELEVATION (FEET NAVD 88) (AND UNINCORPORATED AREAS) 30 SAMISH BAY SUNSET ROAD FIELD ROAD ALLEN WEST ROAD 20 10
30 Newspaper Documentation Samish Mount Vernon Argus 12/15/1921 In some of the houses in the Samish flats water was 6 or 7 feet and the occupants were forced to move to the second story. Concrete Flow = 240,000 cfs
31 Left Bank Levees Removed Mount Vernon to Stanwood Brown Area
32 Left Bank Levees on Mainstem and South Fork Skagit River Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
33 Left Bank Levees on Mainstem and South Fork Skagit River Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
34 Left Bank Levees on Mainstem and South Fork Skagit River Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
35 FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SKAGIT COUNTY, WA FLOOD PROFILES SKAGIT RIVER, OVERBANK FLOW PATH Flowpath 5 Conway Area (Page 67) LEGEND YEAR FLOOD YEAR FLOOD 50 - YEAR FLOOD GROUND ELEVATION CROSS SECTION LOCATION STREAM DISTANCE IN FEET FROM LEVEE AT STILLAGUAMISH RIVER 08P ELEVATION (FEET NAVD 88) (AND UNINCORPORATED AREAS) 30 SKAGIT COUNTY LINE MILLTOWN ROAD CONWAY FIR ISLAND ROAD W JOHNSON ROAD
36 Levee Failures 1951
37 Levee Failures 1951
38 Conway 1951
39 Newspaper Documentation Conway Mount Vernon Argus 12/15/1951 Conway residents declared the 1951 flood was two feet, 10 inches below the 1921 inundation in their community... Concrete Flow = 139,000 cfs Mount Vernon Flow = 144,000 cfs
40 Fir Island Red, Pink and Light Blue Areas
41 Fir Island Levees Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
42 Fir Island Levees Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
43 South Fork Skagit River Right Bank Levee Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
44 South Fork Skagit River Right Bank Levee Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
45 North Fork Skagit River Left Bank Levees Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
46 North Fork Skagit River Left Bank Levees Removed While All Other Levees Remain Intact
47 Fir Island Flowpath
48 Flowpath 4 Fir Island Area (Page 65) FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SKAGIT COUNTY, WA FLOOD PROFILES SKAGIT RIVER, OVERBANK FLOW PATH LEGEND YEAR FLOOD YEAR FLOOD 50 - YEAR FLOOD GROUND ELEVATION CROSS SECTION LOCATION STREAM DISTANCE IN FEET ABOVE COASTAL LEVEE AT SKAGIT BAY 06P ELEVATION (FEET NAVD 88) (AND UNINCORPORATED AREAS) COASTAL LEVEE AT SKAGIT BAY MANN ROAD FIR ISLAND ROAD POLSON ROAD MOORE ROAD START OF FLOW PATH 4 FIR ISLAND AT SPLIT INTO TWO FORKS 10
49 Fir Island 1949 Flood
50 Fir Island 1990 Flood
51 Fir Island 1990 Flood
52 Newspaper Documentation Fir Island Seattle Times 11/13/1990 Seattle Times 11/13/1990 Workers have punched a hole in a dike to drain flooded Fir Island but water from the raging North Fork of the Skagit River is filling the island faster than the water can leave Water is reportedly as deep as 10 feet That break sent a wall of water 10 feet high over fertile farm land Waves were 8 to 10 feet high He estimates he has 9 to 10 feet of water at his house. Concrete Flow = 149,000 cfs Mount Vernon Flow = 142,000 cfs
53 Big Bend Area Yellow Area
54 All Left Bank Levees Removed with Right Bank Levees Intact
55 All Left Bank Levees Removed with Right Bank Levees Intact
56 Big Bend Flow Path
57 FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SKAGIT COUNTY, WA FLOOD PROFILES SKAGIT RIVER, OVERBANK FLOW PATH Flow Path 6 Big Bend OVERLAND DISTANCE IN FEET FROM LOWER BEND TO RIVERSIDE BRIDGE LEGEND YEAR FLOOD YEAR FLOOD 50 - YEAR FLOOD 1984 FIS 100-YEAR GROUND ELEVATION CROSS SECTION LOCATION P ELEVATION (FEET NAVD 88) (AND UNINCORPORATED AREAS) 20 RE-ENTRY AT RM 13.8 I-5 RIVERSIDE DRIVE START OF FLOW PATH 6
58 1917 Levee Failures
59 1917 Levee Failures
60 Newspaper Documentation Big Bend North Mount Vernon Burlington Journal 1/4/1918 The Riverside district south of the river on the Pacific highway to Mt. Vernon s limits suffered The highway was under from two to ten feet of water Mount Vernon Herald 1/3/1918 The Riverside section was badly hit, in some places as much as fifteen feet of water covered the ranch property. Concrete Flow = 220,000 cfs
61 Base Flood Elevation Map
62 Questions/Comments/Concerns?
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