High-speed Rail and Urban Development in China

Transcription

1 University of Hong Kong Shaping the world since 1911 High-speed Rail and Urban Development in China Pengyu Zhu Assistant Professor Department of Geography University of Hong Kong

2 Introduction --Benefits of High Speed Rail (HSR) Video: Discussion: What are the benefits of HSR?

3 Pictures from: Introduction --Benefits of High Speed Rail (HSR)

4 Reduce congestion Introduction --Benefits of High Speed Rail (HSR)

5 Introduction --Benefits of High Speed Rail (HSR) Reduce travel time for long-distance trips Pictures from:

6 Introduction --Benefits of High Speed Rail (HSR) Appropriate travel distance by different transportation modes Pictures from:

7 Introduction --Benefits of High Speed Rail (HSR) Reduce car accidents Pictures from:

8 Introduction --Benefits of High Speed Rail (HSR) Other benefits: Fast, on time service means predictability vs. Constant delays mean unpredictable travel times (both air and car); Zero emission and environmental benefits; Job creation; Efficient mobility and larger markets; Real estate catalyst; Overall economic development

9 Introduction --Challenges of High Speed Rail (HSR) Challenges???

10 Human settlement patterns prior to automobile age What Economic Geography theory? Impact of Automobile/railway? HSR for 75miles =20min Compete for HSR Station. Why? Source: screen capture from

11 Introduction --HSR, accessibility and market potential HSR reduces the intercity travel time, increases the opportunities in trading, labor market accessibility and knowledge spillover between cities. We use market potential (MP) to measure a city s access (measured in travel time) to the markets for goods, services, and labor. Because the demand for goods and services in a city is the sum of purchasing power in nearby cities, we define MP as the travel time weighted purchasing power of neighboring cities that can be traveled to within 60 minutes.

12 Introduction --HSR, accessibility and market potential Cities with high-speed train stations as of 2012 Market Potential 2006 Market Potential 2012 % change No (num of obs 195) % Yes (num of obs 91) %

13 Research Question Increased market potential = Improved accessibility to labor, capital and market Affecting all industries in cities. Higher demand and supply of production (manufacturing industry) and services (service industry) More land needed and faster economic growth The empirical questions: What is the impact of High-speed Rail (HSR) on land development and economic growth of cities? More specifically, the overall impact of HSR on land development? Large cities vs. smaller cities? Different patterns of decentralization? (IV approach and case studies) How about the impact of HSR on economic development (measured in GDP)? (IV approach)

14 Background 1990: Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Rail Conceptual Scheme; high-speed railway (HSR) network and China s economic development 1990s: debate on whether to utilize steel-wheel rail tracks or maglev technology. 2003: first HSR in China-- Qinhuangdao-Shenyang passenger-dedicated line. 2004: the China State Council passed the Mid-to-Long Term Railway Network Plan, which suggested the construction of a nationwide passenger-dedicated HSR network, with a framework consisting of four horizontal and four vertical lines (four North-South lines and four East-West lines). China unveils world's fastest bullet train:

15 Background

16 Background

17 Background

18 Study Area

19 Impact of HSR on land development Scatter Plot for Cities without HSR station Scatter Plot for Cities with HSR station

20 Impact of HSR on GDP growth Scatter Plot for Cities without HSR station Scatter Plot for Cities with HSR station

21 HSR New Town and Land Development ----Case Studies Two HSR new town cases are introduced to illustrate different decentralization phenomena driven by HSR at different city-levels. We also explain the different causes and effects of the HSR new towns in these two cases. Active decentralization driven by HSR in large cities: the case of Nanjing Passive decentralization driven by HSR in medium-small cities: the case of Suzhou

22 HSR New Town The line of Beijing-Shanghai HSR and distribution of Beijing-Shanghai HSR Station/HSR new town(data source: Chinese Ministry of Railway and other open source)

23 Location of HSR Stations Size of Beijing-Shanghai HSR Cities(mesured by population size)and the location of HSR Stations

24 Active Decentralization Case: Nanjing HSR New Town The Nanjing HSR new town is planned to have a total area of 184 square kilometers, with a population of 1.6 million. Nanjing has a vibrant economy and thus a strong bargining power to negotiate with the Ministry of Railways for its HSR station site selection. As a result, Nanjing has strategically selected the location for its HSR station; and the Nanjing HSR new town is postured to be one of the three major urban centers of Nanjing.

25 Active Decentralization Case: Nanjing HSR New Town HSR New Town of Nanjing and Its Relation to Other Urban Centers (Source from:nanjing HSR New Town Master Plan, Southeast Univesity 2010)

26 Active Decentralization Case: Nanjing HSR New Town

27 Active Decentralization Case: Nanjing HSR New Town Housing price appreciation with respect to distance to HSR station ( ) Data Source: (Anjuke.com, a Chinese website of housing information,

28 Passive Decentralization Case: Suzhou HSR New Town Since small and medium-sized cities in China typically lack the economic power to negotiate with the Ministry of Railways for their HSR station site selection, their station sites are often far away from their existing urban areas. However, these cities sometimes use the same planning/construction model as in large cities. Their planned HSR new towns are far away from the existing urban centers, when these old centers still have great potentials to further grow and produce vibrant economic activities. Most of these medium-small cities are not ready yet to proceed with urban decentralization. The construction of HSR new towns in these cities simply absorbs a significant amount of economical activities from the existing centers. In addition, the long distance between the HSR new town and the existing urban center substantially increases the travel costs, which may prohibit economic interactions and thus isolate the two centers. To make things worse, the HSR brings their competitors closer in the region. Small and medium-sized cities now have to face the competitions from neighboring cities as well as large cities more directly. To ensure their success, they need to adjust to their new roles among the new urban hierarchical system.

29 Passive Decentralization Case: Suzhou HSR New Town Suzhou HSR new town is located in a rural area that is 24 kilometers from the existing built-up area. This distance between HSR new town and the existing city is the longest among all 23 cities connected by the the Beijing-Shanghai HSR (Wang L, 2012). According to the Suzhou Master Plan ( ), the entire city will have a population of 1,100,000 by 2030, while Suzhou HSR new town will have a total area of 30 square kilometers and a population of 300,000. The planned HSR new town is 24 kilometers east of the city

30 Passive Decentralization Case: Suzhou HSR New Town Status-quo land use of HSR New Town in Suzhou 2014

31 Impact of HSR on economic development Difference-in-Difference Model and Instrumental Variable Approach Baseline model Endogeneity issue Instrumental Variables: 1)Government staging-posts network in Ming Dynasty ( ) 2)Whether major troops (regiments and above) were deployed in the city in 2006

32 Num of Obs R Table 3 Difference-in-difference model results for GDP growth (1) (2) VARIABLES log (change in GDP ( )) OLS without interaction term log (change in GDP ( )) OLS with interaction term log (change in GDP ( )) 2SLS without interaction term log (change in GDP ( )) 2SLS with interaction term HSR 0.269** 0.863*** 0.894*** 1.245*** (2.55) (6.41) (2.84) (3.69) Population in *** 0.008*** 0.003*** 0.006*** (8.74) (9.99) (6.15) (3.48) HSR * Population in *** * (-6.45) (-1.90) log(δpopulation) 0.004** 0.005*** 0.004** 0.005** (2.27) (3.18) (2.02) (2.55) log(δincome_pc) 1.796*** 1.781*** 1.601*** 1.604*** (8.48) (9.02) (6.68) (7.06) ΔGreen (0.07) (0.35) (0.30) (0.47) Highway improvement (-0.91) (-0.26) (-0.23) (0.14) ΔCompanies above designed size (1.24) (0.18) (1.00) (0.34) ΔProportion of tertiary industry in GDP (-0.70) (-1.05) (-0.04) (-0.26) ΔProportion of secondary industry in GDP (-0.98) (-1.57) (-0.65) (-1.02) Constant (-1.27) (-1.53) (-0.39) (-0.56)

33 Conclusion and Discussion 1) HSR facilitates the rapid land development (i.e., through planned HSR new town surrounding the HSR station) 2) Among cities with HSR stations, smaller cities tend to experience faster land development compared with larger cities. Same pattern for midwestern cities vs. eastern cities. 3) land development driven by HSR station/new town. ----spatial restructuring or leapfrog development? ----active decentralization or passive decentralization? 4) HSR encouraged economic development. And larger cities tend to experience smaller impact of HSR on their GDP growth, compared with smaller cities. 5) suggests that HSR will bring opportunities and challenges to smaller cities as they become closer to larger cities 6) Implications for South East Asia, one-belt-one-road initiative?

34 Sournce from: Asiabriefing.com

35 Chinese high-speed railway in Turkey:

36 Discussion Question What are your own experiences about the impact of high-speed rail on their life and the cities they are living in (or visited)?