ADAPTIVE EVACUATION PLANNING FOR FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT

Transcription

1 ADAPTIVE EVACUATION PLANNING FOR FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT Bas Kolen Senior consultant at HKV PhD candidate Radboud University Nijmegen

2 HKV consultants Private Company, 65 people Applied research and consultancy in: Risk analyses Emergency management GIS and IT software and applications (FEWS, FLIWAS, etc) Water systems (hydrology, hydraulics, morphology) Information management Asset management 4 offices (Lelystad, Delft, Aken GER-, Jakarta -South East Asia-) 10% of budget for Research and development (Partner in Flood Control 2015) 15% of turnover of projects outside The Netherlands

3 This presentation Introduction in evacuation planning Objective of research Adaptive evacuation planning Conclusion and implication for emergency planning

4 Evacuation The process of alerting, warning, preparing, departing and (temporarily) holding people, animals, personal belongings and corporate stock and supplies from an unsafe location at a relatively safer location given the actual circumstances Potentially reduce the loss of life & damage to movable goods in case of a flood. Cause loss of life, economic or social damage and damage to the image of the authorities. Evacuation due to the threat of flooding results in a crisis by definition But can prevent a worse crisis in the case of an actual flood.

5 Types of evacuation preventive vertical time shelter in place acute escape rescue

6 Flood forecasting and evacuation Phase 0: Planning and design Phase 1: warning and strategy building Phase 2: Phase 3: Transition Move from A to B Adaptive evacuation planning Detection & Warning (Td) Decision (Tc) Transition (Tt) Expected onset of Flood (T0) time (hours) lead time Planning and decision making implementation À vailable time for evacuation

7 Example of uncertainties: Lead time Event A Expected Detection & Warning (Td) Decision (Tc) Transition (Tt) Expected onset of Flood (T0) time (hours) required time Strategies for evacuation rtp rtv T0 time (hours) Event B Unexpected Td Tc Tt T0 time (hours)

8 Effectiveness of evacuation Parameters to describe consequences of evacuation (damage, loss of life in case of a flood etc) Effectiveness of evacuation for loss of life Result of EvacuAid (probabilistic evacuation model)

9 Apaptive evacuation planning takes uncertainties into account and offers the opportunity to anticipate the response to the actual circumstances after detection of a threat, available capacities of infrastructure, shelters and emergency services and autonomous response of citizens and decision makers as well. Relevant when: When preventive evacuation cannot be always succeeded (river flooding, storm surges, hurricanes, ) Lead time Time for decision making Coordination and Command and Control When inside the flood zone some shelters or (relatively) safe places exist Multiple areas or polders are involved

10 QuickTime?and a PNG decompressor are needed to see this picture. Concept of Adaptive Strategy Building 1. Normal life: Preparation Evacuation bricks (EvacuAid) Expert team Forecasting / Infrastructure 2. Early warning Threatened area Lead time 3. Strategy building (balance model) Estimate effectiveness per area and overall Develop alternatives 4. Decision making QuickTime?and a PNG decompressor are needed to see this picture. flood zone QuickTime?and a PNG decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime?and a PNG decompressor are needed to see this picture. 2 evacuation route QuickTime?and a PNG decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime?and a PNG decompressor are needed to see this picture. Evacuation zone organisation zone Evacuation building bricks (consequences of different types of evacuation for an area as function of time) assistance evacuation brick

11 Example strategy building Optimal strategy area 1 area 2 area 3 area 4 area 5 Strategy Builder using evacuation bricks and boundary checks (capacity of infrastructure, assistance, behavior ) Objectives: minimise loss of life, risk... area 1 area 2 area 3 area 4 area 5 Default strategy evacuation

12 Discussion - Limited experiences with evacuation - Manu measures have not been tested yet in these circumstances - Use a default strategy for evacuation or keep it open? - Believe in succes of coordination and command and control?

13 Conclusion Adaptive evacuation planning can reduce risk for areas in which a preventive evacuation cannot always be executed. Adaptive evacuation reduces complexity of emergency structures because of pre-defined evacuation bricks and strategy builder. In case of a need for adapative evacuation planning, vertical evacuation (combined with shelter in place) is a better default strategy than preventive evacuatoin because of uncertainties, the possibilty that people can leave an area is a bonus. More research is needed after effectiveness of communication and warning in relation to loss of life reduction and vertical evacuation / shelter in place.

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