Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathways

Transcription

1 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathways Phase 1: Gas Technology Pathway Identification May 2018 enovationpartners.com

2 Content Executive Summary Project Scope and Approach Gas Technologies End Use Pathways Vignettes Appendix 1

3 Project scope 3/5 5/20 10 weeks TBD TBD 1. Gas Technology Pathway Identification Identify and assess emerging natural gas enduse technologies that could contribute materially to GHG reductions Assemble candidate gas technologies into end-use pathways for meeting current gas end use needs at lower GHG levels Analyze customer benefits 2. Comparative Pathway Performance (optional) Analyze how penetration of new gas end-use technologies could change costs and emissions at the system and national levels Compare costs of GHG reductions with other pathways Understand cumulative GHG impact of implementing gas pathways today vs. waiting for electrification 3. Policy Implications and Outreach (optional) Develop policy advocacy materials Analyze potential impacts at state level 2

4 Emerging gas technologies can make substantial and cost-effective contributions to GHG reduction goals >100 Innovative gas technologies for Residential / Small Commercial identified in our global search 25-40% GHG reduction potential on a customer basis by integration of these technologies and other efficiency practices 60-80%+ GHG reduction sufficient to meet COP 21 goals with inclusion of future CHP technologies and Renewable Natural Gas Policy goals for sustainable energy can be achieved at significantly lower consumer cost through integrating innovative gas solutions into long-term resource planning, while offering customers more choice and improved affordability, reliability and comfort Gas technologies can enhance energy system reliability (system-wide and as a local backup) and efficiency, while reducing the need for new electric generation and T&D infrastructure and preserving the future value of gas infrastructure. They deserve comparable policy support Electric technologies will also improve, and are supported by incentives, but their GHG impacts depend on the generation fuel mix. In some regions electrification will increase GHG emissions through the 2030s 3

5 Our objective was to identify innovative gas technologies and translate their impact into customer value and environmental benefits 1 Innovation area 1 Condensing Technology Hot water heating / 2 boilers 3 Kitchen 4 On-Site Generation 5 Burners 6 Heat Pumps Changes to laundry 7 processing Solar Thermal / Heat 8 Recovery Improved Energy 9 Management 10 Transportation 11 Building Envelope 12 Miscellaneous 12 Innovation areas Condensing Technology 2. Boilers 3. Kitchen Technologies Integrated contact condensing water heater In-situ flue burner - applying premix burners to storage GWH Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) High efficiency condensing condo packs Residential condensing water heater Condensing wall furnace Rooftop units - heating and cooling Condensing economizer Tankless water heater Solar-assisted heating Thermal compression gas heat pump Combined space and water heating systems Combination steam and heat oven Boilerless steamer Smoke sensors >100 in exhaust system to control ventilation Technologies End-use pathways 7 End usepathways 26 Prioritized technologies 4 Customer value Affordability Sustainability Resilience Comfort Note: Some technologies have multiple end uses and can be used in the residential and commercial sectors. These technologies are represented in all applicable sections 4

6 Global innovation is accelerating in traditional applications as well as emerging applications such as resilience and transportation. RNG will decarbonize gas more fundamentally. Natural Gas End-Uses Energy Management & Building Efficiency Water Heating Cooking Cogeneration/ Resilience Space Heating & Cooling 72 Laundry Transportation Renewable Natural Gas Notes: Transportation technologies were not the main focus of the project; Renewable Natural Gas technologies were outside of the project scope 5

7 Extensive global research, interviews, workshops and conference sessions highlighted over 100 significant emerging gas technologies Residential End Uses and Representative Technologies Commercial Technology Innovation Areas Water Heating 17 Tankless water heater Gas heat-pump water heater Cogeneration/ Resilience 5 Micro CHP Solid oxide fuel cells Building Energy Management 12 Envelope IoT-based energy mgmt. Heating & Cooling 18 Condensing furnace Heat pumps Solar thermal/ Heat recovery Transportation 5 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Home-refueling appliances Cooking 1 Gas oven and cooktop Laundry 3 Advanced gas dryer Ozone washing Water Heating 3 Condensing economizer Grease Trap heat exchange Cogeneration/ Resilience 5 Micro CHP Solid oxide fuel cells Focus of the study Outside of the main focus of the study Building Energy Management 10 Demand controls for HW system Heating & Cooling 13 Heat pumps Condensing Condo Packs Transportation 9 Commercial CNGVs Free-piston linearmotor compressor Cooking 6 High production fryer Boilerless steamer Laundry 5 Ozone washing Advanced gas infra-red burner Customer Value, GHG Impacts Notes: Total number of technologies exceeds 100 due to applicability to both sectors and multiple end uses 6

8 Innovative technologies were assessed, prioritized and aligned with relevant end use pathways 68 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) Unplugged power burners - Two- Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology Combined Space and Water Heating Systems* Ozone and cold water washing High priority technologies by major end use Low-cost residential gas absorption heat pump (GAHP) combination Condensing furnace Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) High production fryers Multistacked boilerless steamer for high volume cooking Combination steam and heat oven IoT thermostats (i.e. Nest, Honeywell) Building envelope (insulation, windows, building materials) Demand controls for HW systems Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head Solid oxide fuel cells* Micro CHP gas recip, sterling engine* Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) Commercial CNG vehicles Note: All technologies were independently evaluated and scored by several SMEs; evaluation criteria primarily considered GHG impact and time to market; aggregated scores were consistent among experts and robust against multiple weightings; * designates technology with multiple end-uses, but listed only once 7

9 Combining emerging end-use technologies in the residential sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions Space Cooling, up to 45% Space Heating, up to 40% Gas heat pump Cooking, minimal change Gas stove Gas oven 72 Building Efficiency, 10-45% IoT based thermostat Building Envelope Water heating, up to 55% Absorption heat pump Laundry, 55% Gas dryer Ozone washing Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in

10 Combining emerging end-use technologies in the commercial sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions Cooking, up to 40% High efficiency fryer Energy Management & Building Efficiency, 10-45% Building Envelope IOT Thermostat Water heating, up to 15% Condensing storage Transportation, up to 20% Commercial compressed natural gas vehicles Electric Generation, Space Heating, up to 50% CHP, Gas Recip Engine Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in

11 Currently available efficient gas technologies can more affordably achieve targeted GHG reduction goals through 2030s 25-40% GHG reduction potential on a customer basis by implementing these technologies and other related efficiency practices Specific illustrative vignettes of customers achieving this level of reduction today through innovative gas technologies were developed, to help communicate the benefits: Zero Net Energy (ZNE) home in Chicago, IL* Low income family renting in Hartford, CT* Home in Queens, NY* Fixed income retiree in The Villages, FL Residential developer/builder in MA Restaurant owner in OH Public bus system in CA Family in harsh winter climate of St Louis, MO* Single family home in MI Notes: * Examples follow Gas infrastructure is already in place. No need to wait for build-out of more expensive all-electric pathways. 10

12 Vignette: Natural gas improves resilience and comfort of a Midwestern Zero Net Energy home, reducing CO 2 at a lower cost Nick Rumas and Shin-ae Kang are building a ZNE home near Chicago, IL. Sustainability is very important to them, as is affordability. Natural gas plays an important part in both of these efficiently heating, cooking, drying, as well as saving them money in construction and monthly bills. Profile Young couple near Chicago, IL Single family residential home, 2,200 sq ft Median income Most concerned about sustainability and affordability, to a lesser degree about comfort and resilience Energy sources Utility delivered natural gas Utility delivered electricity Solar roof PV * Li-ion battery * * Electric bill credits reflect current utility tariffs for customers with PV Technologies Heating: Hydronic radiant system with gas absorption heat pump Cooling: Electric heat pump with exterior condenser and interior evaporator Water heating: Gas absorption heat pump Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave Other: Electric battery, building envelope, programmable thermostat 11

13 Vignette: Efficient natural gas technologies are a lower cost and faster way for property owners to comply with regional climate policies, while also significantly decreasing energy bills for renters in Hartford, CT Paul is a single parent with three children who chose to rent a 1,400 sq ft townhome near Hartford, CT because the landlord had just replaced this older unit s aging, high maintenance appliances with new, more efficient gas appliances. First cost was very important to the landlord, so he chose the least expensive option available, which was modern gas appliances with energy efficiency incentives from the local gas utility. Paul s family was able to enjoy the comfort of a warm and efficient home with lower utility bills and more cash for the holidays. Profile Family of 4 near Hartford, CT Rented 1,400 sq ft townhome Lower income, LIHEAP eligible Most concerned about affordability, and also with comfort and safety with kids in the house Technologies Heating: Natural gas furnace Cooling: Electric AC Water heating: High efficiency gas boiler Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave Other: Building envelope, efficient lighting, low flow shower heads, programmable thermostat Notes: Technology choices represent typical decisions made by a landlord of a rental property, homeowners may make different choices 12

14 Vignette: Gas innovation and efficiency is the only practical path for an NYC home to make a near term impact on state 80x50 goals The owners of single family home in Queens, NY are concerned about meeting their city s 80 x 50 goals. They would like to know what role they can play in GHG emission reduction. While they understand that cutting emissions may raise their energy costs, they also want to make sure those expenditures are worthwhile. How would their GHG emissions and costs for space heating change if they switched to an electric heat pump, using current technologies? Profile 2,000 Ft 2 single family home, NYC Metro area Home heated to 70 o F Outside air temperature cases: 10 o F to 30 o F City Gate Electric System Gas Need: 10 o F: 104,200 Btu 20 o F: 57,900 Btu 30 o F: 34,700 Btu Gas Losses Gas Need: 10 o F: 61,200 Btu 20 o F: 51,000 Btu 30 o F: 40,800 Btu Electrification Gas Generation Marginal Unit (NYC) Gas Losses Direct Gas Use (not including future innovation) Electric Losses Emissions: 10 o F: 12.2 lb CO 2 20 o F: 6.8 lb CO 2 30 o F: 4.1 lb CO 2 70 o F ASHP vs. 80% Efficient Gas Boiler Emissions: 10 o F: 7.2 lb CO 2 20 o F: 6.0 lb CO 2 30 o F: 4.8 lb CO 2 Efficient residential gas heating costs NYC customers much less, and below ~25 o F has lower CO 2 emissions than electric under today s marginal generation mix Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison 13

15 Vignette: Natural gas innovation reduces CO 2 and also delivers resilience and affordability to a family in Missouri The Johnson family of St Louis, MO, has lived through several ice storms, and chose their current house due to its gas appliances. Their previous home was all electric, and they suffered through the multi-day outages that typically follow ice storms. They like the comfort of their gas furnace, and are interested in learning more about money-saving advanced gas solutions. Profile 3,200 sq ft home in eastern Missouri Family of 4 Most concerned about resilience and affordability Technologies Heating: Condensing gas furnace Cooling: Electric heat pump Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave Other: Building envelope, programmable thermostat 14

16 More advanced but proven and scalable gas technologies can achieve COP21 goals for GHG reductions, while also saving money and improving resilience and comfort 60-80%+ GHG reduction sufficient to meet COP21 goals with inclusion of future CHP and Renewable Gas technologies Specific illustrative vignettes of customers achieving this level of reduction in the future through innovative gas technologies were developed, to help communicate the benefits: Large single family home in Oregon* Coastal house in NJ Large residence near Houston, TX Notes: * Example follows 15

17 Vignette: In the future, Renewable Natural Gas is a more affordable and effective way to improve sustainability in an Oregon home In 2033, Liliana and Jay have a home outside Portland that is a showplace of new technology, but only a few years ahead in their progressive neighborhood. They showcase the applications of renewable gas lighting, outdoor heating, indoor, water heating, along with electric EVs, solar roof, LED lighting, battery - and whole home controls and efficiency that minimizes use of energy wherever possible Profile 3,400 sq ft home in Portland, OR Couple in their 50s, no kids Most concerned about demonstrating sustainability commitment while enjoying the full potential of technology Energy sources Utility delivered renewable gas Utility delivered electricity Solar roof PV (with net metering) Li-ion battery Technologies Heating: Retrofitted gas furnace (Transport Membrane Humidifier) Cooling: Electric heat pump Water heating: Gas tankless water heater Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave Other: Building envelope, IoT based thermostat, Energy management and information system; outdoor gas heating, gas lighting, EV Notes: Residential electric rates assume 1% annual escalation per EIA 16

18 Findings and recommendations An extensive global search for innovative natural gas end-use technologies in residential and small commercial sectors surfaced roughly 100 unique potential technologies for all major end-uses available now or in the near term. Based on GHG emission reduction impacts and maturity level, about a third of the technologies were prioritized and further assessed. The identified high priority technologies offer a significant efficiency improvement potential (some more than 50%), which can greatly help to achieve GHG emission reduction goals nationwide. Pathways for GHG reduction were defined for the major residential and commercial gas end uses. Utilizing the combinations of technologies on these pathways could result in as much as 25-40% GHG emission reduction per customer, when compared to the current installed based of natural gas equipment. GHG reductions per customer of over 80% (enough to meet COP21 goals) could be achieved with the future addition of CHP and renewable gas technologies. Customer vignette examples were developed to help communicate how a wide variety of customers can use these gas technologies in their everyday life, and experience the benefits of improved affordability, reliability, sustainability and comfort. The illustrative customer cases quantified in the vignettes demonstrate that the costs of meeting energy needs while complying with GHG reduction goals will be lower at the customer level if gas is encouraged to fulfill its potential contribution. Further analytical work is required to assess the impact of penetration of emerging gas end-use technologies on costs and emissions at the utility system and national levels, and compare key metrics for deep decarbonization pathways with and without new gas technologies The gas industry should expand its engagement with regulatory and governmental policy makers, to help build a sound factual basis for long-term GHG reduction strategies that meet GHG goals most cost-effectively 17

19 Content Executive Summary Project Scope and Approach Gas Technologies End Use Pathways Vignettes Appendix 18

20 Project scope 3/5 5/20 10 weeks TBD TBD 1. Gas Technology Pathway Identification Identify and assess emerging natural gas enduse technologies that could contribute materially to GHG reductions Assemble candidate gas technologies into end-use pathways for meeting current gas end use needs at lower GHG levels Analyze customer benefits 2. Comparative Pathway Performance (optional) Analyze how penetration of new gas end-use technologies could change costs and emissions at the system and national levels Compare costs of GHG reductions with other pathways Understand cumulative GHG impact of implementing gas pathways today vs. waiting for electrification 3. Policy Implications and Outreach (optional) Develop policy advocacy materials Analyze potential impacts at state level 19

21 Key deliverables 1 1. Gas Technology Pathway Identification Long list of emerging gas technologies, with source materials Technical and economic viability of higher priority technologies Defined end use gas pathways of high priority technologies Estimates of GHG emissions reduction potential across gas pathways at customer level First drafts of customer vignettes and core advocacy documents Steering Committee and Board presentations 2. Comparative Pathway Performance (optional) Base scenario definition Assumptions on customerlevel changes in gas capital and operating costs for major gas end uses Estimated changes in gas capital and operating costs at system and national levels Comparison of key metrics for deep decarbonization pathways with and without new gas technologies 3. Policy Implications and Outreach (optional) Sizing of competitiveness gaps Recommendations on effective policy initiatives CSR tools for quantifying gas technology social benefits State and federal communications materials State-level assessment of economics of new gas technologies, from customer perspective Draft and final educational materials for participating stakeholders 1. Partial list of key deliverables 20

22 The focus of our research was on all major end uses for gas in residential sector Primary End Uses Remaining End Uses Space Heating Water Heating Residential Energy End-use, Trillion Btu Cooking 1,802 Other Uses 1,694 Space Cooling Lighting Refrigeration Televisions 282 Clothes Dryers Computers Furnace Fans 104 Dishwashers 94 Freezers 74 Clothes Washers ,051 Comments EIA s 2016 estimate of actual residential consumption by enduse shows space heating, water heating, cooking and other uses accounted for almost all direct gas consumption GHG reduction pathways to be constructed will reflect: - Retaining the customer share of gas in its primary end uses through new technologies (e.g., improved space heating, water heating, cooking) - Displacing central station electric power production by gas-fired onsite production (CHP and mchp) Gas Electric Other Notes: 1. EIA, AEO Natural gas consumption is only broken out by space heating, cooking, water heating, clothes drying, and space cooling. All other end uses of natural gas are represented in Other Uses 21

23 As well as small commercial sector Primary End Uses Remaining End Uses Space Heating Water Heating Cooking Other Uses Refrigeration Space Cooling Ventilation Lighting Computers and Office equipment Commercial Energy End-use, Trillion Btu ,925 Gas Electric Other 3,039 Comments EIA s 2016 estimate of actual commercial consumption by end-use shows space heating, water heating, cooking and other uses (including drying) accounted for almost all direct gas consumption GHG reduction pathways to be constructed will reflect: - Retaining the customer share of gas in its primary end uses through new technologies - Increasing customer share for gas in in some end uses (e.g., cooling) - Displacing central station electric power production by gas-fired onsite production (CHP and mchp) Notes: 1. EIA, AEO Natural gas consumption is only broken out by space heating, cooking, water heating, and space cooling. All other end uses of natural gas are represented in Other Uses 22

24 We found that global innovation is accelerating in traditional applications as well as emerging applications such as resilience and transportation. RNG will decarbonize gas more fundamentally. Natural Gas End-Uses Energy Management & Building Efficiency Water Heating Cooking Cogeneration/ Resilience Space Heating & Cooling 72 Laundry Transportation Renewable Natural Gas Notes: Transportation technologies were not the main focus of the project; Renewable Natural Gas technologies were outside of the project scope 23

25 Our objective was to identify innovative gas technologies and translate their impact into customer value and environmental benefits 1 Innovation area 1 Condensing Technology Hot water heating / 2 boilers 3 Kitchen 4 On-Site Generation 5 Burners 6 Heat Pumps Changes to laundry 7 processing Solar Thermal / Heat 8 Recovery Improved Energy 9 Management 10 Transportation 11 Building Envelope 12 Miscellaneous Condensing Technology 2. Boilers 3. Kitchen Technologies Integrated contact condensing water heater In-situ flue burner - applying premix burners to storage GWH Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) High efficiency condensing condo packs Residential condensing water heater Condensing wall furnace Rooftop units - heating and cooling Condensing economizer Tankless water heater Solar-assisted heating Thermal compression gas heat pump Combined space and water heating systems Combination steam and heat oven Boilerless steamer Smoke sensors in exhaust system to control ventilation End-use pathways 4 Customer value Affordability Sustainability Resilience Comfort Note: Some technologies have multiple end uses and can be used in the residential and commercial sectors. These technologies are represented in all applicable sections 24

26 Wide range of sources from around the globe helped identify gas technologies that contribute to GHG reduction Data Sources (partial list) Desk Research ARPA-E Canada Natural Gas Innovation Fund Canadian Gas Association Center for Climate and Energy Solutions Gas Technology Institute (GTI) reports and Utilization Technology Department Fraunhofer Institute Korea Gas Tokyo Gas US DOE: NETL, NREL Personal communications Engie European Research Institute for Gas & Technology Innovation (ERIG) Gas and Heat Institute (GWI - Germany) Gas Union Fenosa GTI End-Use Department section leaders Orsted Osaka Gas Other members of IGU Utilization Committee UC Irvine Westport Innovations West River Capital List of Technologies (examples) Condensing heat exchangers Condensing economizer Solar-assisted heating Tankless water heater High efficiency thermoelectric generators Enhanced radiant heat transfer Burner technology advancements (multiple) 3D printing for industrial burner design/production Advanced Gas Dryer Development Heat wheels for residential (air-to-air heat exchanger) Kitchen demand control ventilation Gas infrared drying Ozone laundry Liquid desiccant air conditioning/humidity control Gas Engine Heat Pump Gas fuel cell (multiple technologies) CHP : > 50kW and micro CHP (multiple technologies) Intelligent Energy Management (multiple) Hybrid homes (gas + electric) Zero Net Emission Home 25

27 Content Executive Summary Project Scope and Approach Gas Technologies End Use Pathways Vignettes Appendix 26

28 We conducted extensive research, interviews and a workshop to identify over 100 unique gas technologies across 12 categories Technical concept End-Use Sector Condensing Technology Hot water heating / boilers Kitchen On-Site Generation Burners Heat Pumps Changes to laundry processing # of Technologies Reviewed 1 Space cooling Commercial 2 Residential 1 Space heating Commercial 3 Industrial 1 Residential 4 Water heating Commercial 1 Industrial 1 Total >> 13 Space heating Residential 3 Water heating Residential 7 Total >> 10 Cooking Residential 1 Cooking Commercial 4 Water heating Commercial 1 Total >> 6 Space cooling Residential 7 Commercial 3 Space heating Residential 7 Commercial 3 Water heating Residential 1 Total >> 21 Cooking Commercial 2 Laundry Industrial 1 Other Industrial 1 Water heating Residential 2 Total >> 6 Space cooling Residential 5 Commercial 5 Space heating Residential 6 Commercial 5 Water heating Residential 2 Total >> 23 Residential 3 Laundry Commercial 4 Industrial 1 Total >> 8 Technical concept End-Use Sector # of Technologies Reviewed 1 Space cooling Residential 1 Commercial 1 Space heating Residential 3 Commercial 1 Solar Thermal / Heat Recovery Improved Energy Management Transportation Building Envelope Miscellaneous Water heating Residential 1 Other Agriculture 1 Total >> 8 Residential 5 Space cooling Commercial 3 Industrial 1 Residential 5 Space heating Commercial 3 Industrial 1 Water heating Residential 3 Other Industrial 2 Total >> 23 Transportation Transportation 10 Total >> 10 Space cooling Residential 3 Commercial 3 Space heating Residential 3 Commercial 3 Total >> 12 Space cooling Residential 1 Commercial 1 Space heating Commercial 1 Total >> 3 Cooking 7 Laundry 9 Other 4 Space cooling 41 Space heating 49 Transportation 10 Water heating Some technologies have multiple end uses and can be used in both the residential and commercial sectors. These technologies are represented in more than one row Totals 27

29 Long list of end-use gas technologies (1 of 3) Technical Concept Condensing Technology Hot Water Heating / Boilers Kitchen On-Site Generation Code Application/Project End-Use Sector A.1 Rooftop units - heating and cooling Space heating/cooling C A.2 Integrated Contact Condensing Water Heater Water heating R A.3 In-Situ Flue Burner - applying premix burners to storage GWH Water heating R A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) - Retrofit Device for High-Efficiency Residential Heating and Humidification Space heating R A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs Space heating/cooling Water heating A.6 Residential Condensing Water Heater Water heating R A.7 Condensing Wall Furnace Water heating R A.8 Condensing economizer - Extracts latent heat from boiler flue gas; usually in series with (sensible) heat exchanger. Industrial Boilers; high pressure > 85 psi Space and water heating C/I B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters Water heating R B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) Water heating R B.3 Thermal compression gas heat pump Space heating R B.4 SuperPerm Burner for Water Heaters Water heating R B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems Space and water heating R B.6 Steam Boiler with built-in energy recovery Space and water heating R B.7 Residential Vapor Vacuum Heating Water heating R B.8 Oxygen Membrane Enhanced Burner - Polymer in the burner assembly that enriches oxygen constituency in the combustion air; higher permanence than other materials and allows for higher oxygen content which increases combustion efficiency Water heating R C.1 Grease Trap Htx - Extract heat from waste grease to pre-heat hot water Water heating C C.2 Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust C.3 Combination steam and heat oven Cooking R/C C.4 Commercial Pilotless Gas Range Cooking C C.5 Boilerless steamer (duplicate below) Multi-stacked convention steamer for high volume cooking Cooking C D.1 High Efficiency Thermoelectric Generators Water heating R D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw - Conventional Stirling Space heating/cooling R D.3 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw - Resonance Stirling Space heating/cooling R D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw GRI micro-turbine Space heating/cooling R/C D.5 Zero Net Emission Home Space heating/cooling R D.6 1 kwe residential-scale CHP system Space heating/cooling R D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells Space heating/cooling R/C Sources: GTI, UTD, NREL, EP expertise, interviews with industry experts and others Cooking C C 28

30 Long list of end-use gas technologies (2 of 3) Technical Concept Code Application/Project End-Use Sector E.1 Demonstration high production fryers Cooking C E.2 Conveyor Broiler improvements Redesign of existing combustion system Cooking C Burners E.3 Enhanced radiant heat transfer with advanced coatings High emissivity coating that reduces porosity of thermal burners Laundry I E.4 Unplugged ENERGY STAR Water Heater Water heating R E.5 3D-printed industrial process burner Other I E.6 Unplugged power burners Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas water-heater control technology Water heating R F.1 Next Aire GEHP performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in a heating-dominated climate Space heating / cooling R/C F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater Water heating R F.3 Application of innovative gas heat-pump design to space conditioning Space heating / cooling R/C F.4 Thermally-driven ground-source heat pump Space heating / cooling R/C Heat Pumps Thermally-driven fluidic compressor; evaporation phase energy is captured and reused in the refrigeration process; achieve higher F.5 COPs in the cycle Space heating / cooling C Changes to Laundry Processing Solar Thermal/ Heat Recovery F.6 Thermolift heat pump cold-climate, natural gas air-conditioner and heat pump technology Space heating / cooling R/C F.7 Electric heat pump + gas furnace Space heating / cooling R F.8 Solar thermal heat pump Space and water heating R G.1 Next generation advanced gas dryer development high efficiency dryer technology options including, but not limited to, heat recovery, indirect firing, direct venting, and advanced burners. G.2 Commercial dryer modulating gas retrofit Laundry C G.3 Dryer moisture sensor retrofit Laundry R G.4 Chemicals for commercial laundry (non-ozone) Laundry C G.5 Advanced gas infra-red burner to compete with electric Laundry C/I G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics Laundry R/C H.1 Heat wheels (air-to-air heat exchanger) Use enthalpy in HVAC return air to pre-heat inlet air drawn from the atmosphere Apceheating R H.2 Thermal destratification fans recycle the air in your HVAC system Space heating/cooling C/I H.3 Air solar collector system air passing through the collector picks up heat from the absorber plate Space heating R H.4 Multifamily reflective heat barriers reduce hat gain and cooling costs Space heating/cooling R H.5 Flue gas condenser for heat recovery Water heating R H.6 HE grain dryer waste heat exchanger and recovery built into grain dryer Other A Laundry R Sources: GTI, UTD, NREL, EP expertise, interviews with industry experts and others 29

31 Long list of end-use gas technologies (3 of 3) Technical Concept Code Application/Project End-Use Sector Improved Energy Management Transportation Building Envelope I.1 Variable Vent Louvres Wireless sensors communicate to smart thermostat; vary air flow to meet temperature set point Space heating / cooling R I.2 Outdoor-air-temperature-based ventilation control Space heating / cooling R I.3 IoT based thermostats (ie Nest, Honeywell, etc.) Space heating / cooling R I.4 Variable vent louvres - Wireless sensors communicate to smart thermostat; vary air flow to meet temperature set point Space heating / cooling R I.5 Wireless Steam Trap Monitor Detects failed open or close steam trap and provides alarm at centralized control Other C/I I.6 Predictive Analytics Energy Management System Overlay Continuous based commissioning of existing BAS Space heating / cooling C/I I.7 Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set point (potable) Water heating I.8 Thermostatically Controlled Low Flow Shower Head Restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow Water heating R I.9 Energy Management and Information System (EMIS) Space heating / cooling R/C I.10 Innovative On-Demand WH Pump Water heating R I.11 Commercial Pneumatic Thermostat Space heating / cooling C I.12 Automated O2 Control Systems Other I J.1 Natural Gas Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles Running on Compressed Natural Gas Transportation T J.2 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (Hydrogen) Transportation T J.3 Natural-gas Vehicle Home-refueling Appliances Transportation T J.4 Free-piston Linear-motor Compressor Transportation T J.5 CWI 6.7-Liter Medium-duty Engine Development Transportation T J.6 Improvements in High-volume Dispensing Performance Transportation T J.7 Free-piston Linear-motor Compressor Scale-up Transportation T J.8 CNG Fuel Station Safety, Performance, and Best Practices Audit Kit Transportation T J.9 High-Volume, Off-Road CNG Applications Analysis Transportation T J to 15-Liter Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Engines for Class 8 Trucks Transportation T K.1 Insulation Space heating / cooling R/C K.2 Advanced Aerogel Insulating Material for Window Insulation Space heating / cooling R/C K.3 Building Materials Space heating / cooling R/C K.4 Windows Space heating / cooling R/C L.1 Commercial and Industrial Air Barriers Space heating / cooling C/I Miscellaneous L.2 Natural Gas Cooling Space cooling R Sources: GTI, UTD, NREL, EP expertise, interviews with industry experts and others R 30

32 All technologies were first assessed against level of impact and time to market, as well as several other criteria Area Energy and GHG Impacts Technology Maturity Non-energy benefits Economics Regulatory/ Commercial Barriers Scale Assessment criteria Impact on energy consumption (kwh/mmbtu) Impact on electric peak (kw) or gas peak (MMCFD) Overall efficiency improvement and GHG emissions reduction Accessible market size Commercial availability < 5 years Commercial availability 5 to 10 years Commercial availability 10 to 15 years Effective use of waste heat Other factors e.g., comfort; indoor air quality Overall economics Susceptible to use of renewable gas Highly dependent on turnover of current stock Technical barriers relies on high GHG impact materials Practical barriers space to install Safety Building codes Regulator-approved rebates LDC ability to market Standardization of configuration Ease of scaling up to produce modules at scale Comments Assessment framework helped prioritize gas technologies based on relative level of impact and market readiness Additional research gathered data to serve as foundation for: Estimating energy savings and emissions impact at technology level Incorporating into relevant end use pathways Estimating energy savings and emissions impact at customer and pathway levels Mapping economics and barriers into expected market penetration rates 31

33 High potential technologies were prioritized for further analysis Technical concept Condensing Technology Hot water heating / boilers Kitchen On-Site Generation Burners Heat Pumps Changes to laundry processing Application/project A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) - Retrofit Device for High-Efficiency Residential Heating and Humidification 3.8 A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs 3.2 B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters 3.2 B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) 3.4 B.3 Thermal compression gas heat pump 3.2 B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems 3.1 Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust C.2 Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust 3.4 C.3 Combination steam and heat oven 3.7 C.5 Boilerless steamer Multi-stacked convention steamer for high volume cooking 3.2 D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw - Conventional Stirling 3.1 D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw - GRI 3.2 D.5 Zero Net Emission Home 3.3 D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells 3.1 E.1 Demonstration high production fryers 3.3 E.6 Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas-water-heater control 4.0 F.1 Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in a heating-dominated climate 3.4 F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater 4.1 F.3 Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning 3.9 G.4 Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone) 3.7 G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics 3.3 I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits 3.2 Improved I.3 IoT based thermostats (e.g. Nest, Honeywell) 3.7 Energy Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems - Automated controls learn behavior and temperature Management I.7 patterns and adjusts set points (potable) 3.1 I.8 Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow 3.2 Transportation J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) 3.1 Building Envelope K.1 Insulation 3.7 Notes: Technologies were scored on 5-point scale (5=best) across multiple criteria by Enovation, GTI, and other industry experts. Prioritization results were robust across different experts and alternative weighting schemes. Overall Score 32

34 Scoring details for high priority technologies Technical concept Condensing Technology Hot water heating / boilers Kitchen On-Site Generation Code Application/project Efficiency Benefit GHG Benefit Non-Energy / Emission Benefits Barriers to Adoption Econo mics Accessible Market / Scale Rating (1 = worst, 5 = best) A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) - Retrofit Device for High-Efficiency Residential Heating and Humidification A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) B.3 Thermal compression gas heat pump B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems C.2 Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust Overall Score C.3 Combination steam and heat oven C.5 Boilerless steamer - Multistacked convention steamer for high volume cooking D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw - Conventional Stirling D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw - GRI D.5 Zero Net Emission Home D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells E.1 Demonstration high production fryers Burners Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and E.6 ultra-low power gas-water-heater control technology Heat Pumps F.1 Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in a heating-dominated climate F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater F.3 Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning Changes to G.4 Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone) laundry Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and processing G.6 providing better wash characteristics I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits I.3 IoT based thermostats (ie Nest, Honeywell, etc.) Improved Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems - Automated Energy I Management controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable) Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts I automatically based on temperature and flow Transportation J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) Building Envelope K.1 Insulation Notes: Technologies were scored across multiple criteria by Enovation, GTI, and other industry experts. Prioritization results were robust across different experts and alternative weighting schemes. 33

35 Content Executive Summary Project Scope and Approach Gas Technologies End Use Pathways Vignettes Appendix 34

36 Prioritized current and near-term technologies were combined into coherent end use pathways* to illustrate customer benefits Pathways Technology Estimated First Cost GHG Reduction Gas engine heat pump + building envelope + IoT based thermostats N/A 50-55% Space heating & cooling Gas recip CHP + building envelope + IoT based thermostats $4,000-6,500/kW + $1,000-2, % Condensing furnace + building envelope + IoT based thermostats $3,000-$4, % Tankless water heater $1,200-1, % Available Today Water heating Condensing storage water heater $1,500-3, % Residential gas heat pump water heater $1,600-2, % Combined space and water heater $6,000-10, % Laundry Ozone clothes washing $ % High production fryers $5,000-6, % Cooking Boilerless steamer $9,000-10, % Available Near Term Combination steam and heat oven $14,000-15, % Transportation Commercial compressed natural gas vehicles Variable 10-20% Low-cost residential gas absorption heat pump (GAHP) combi N/A 50-55% Space heating & cooling Solid oxide fuel cell N/A 55-75% Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) $ % Water Heating Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) $1,000-1, % Laundry Advanced gas dryer N/A 0-5% Transportation Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) N/A >50% * Many other technologically compatible combinations possible 35

37 Combining emerging end-use technologies in the residential sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions Space Cooling, up to 45% Space Heating, up to 40% Gas heat pump Cooking, minimal change Gas stove Gas oven 72 Building Efficiency, 10-45% IoT based thermostat Building Envelope Water heating, up to 55% Absorption heat pump Laundry, 55% Gas dryer Ozone washing Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in

38 Combining emerging end-use technologies in the commercial sector creates multiple pathways for customers to reduce GHG emissions Cooking, up to 40% High efficiency fryer Energy Management & Building Efficiency, 10-45% Building Envelope IOT Thermostat Water heating, up to 15% Condensing storage Transportation, up to 20% Commercial compressed natural gas vehicles Electric Generation, Space Heating, up to 50% CHP, Gas Recip Engine Notes: GHG reduction potential is estimated based on efficiency improvements over stock average gas equipment efficiency and building envelope in

39 Content Executive Summary Project Scope and Approach Gas Technologies End Use Pathways Vignettes Appendix 38

40 Customer vignettes are an effective way of communicating gas technology benefits to participants in energy policy discussions Value Drivers Sustainability Affordability Resilience Comfort Time Customer type State Possible Customer Vignettes Today Residential IL 1*. Zero Net Energy home Future Residential Today Residential Commercial OR/CA CT NY 2*. Large single family home in suburban area goal of being sustainable and technologically advanced 3*. Low income family renting a townhome trying to manage their utility bills while maintaining comfort 4*. Middle income family in Queens, NY in a single family home Matching Gas Technologies (showcase examples) Hydronic radiant system with gas absorption heat pump Renewable natural gas Retrofitted gas furnace with Transport Membrane Humidifier Natural gas furnace High efficiency gas boiler Gas dryer Gas boiler FL 5. Fixed income retiree in a small house TBD MA OH CA Today Residential MO 6. Residential developer/builder deciding whether to include access to gas in the new development 7. Restaurant owner wanting to make high quality healthy food at affordable prices 8. Public bus system in a city looking to provide the service cheaply and sustainably 9*. Single family home choosing gas powered appliances after having lived through power outages TBD TBD TBD Future Residential NJ, VA, NC 10. Coastal house TBD Today Residential MI 11. Single family home TBD Future Residential TX 12. Large residence near Houston with a heated pool, hot tub and backup generation * Examples follow Note: Vignettes can be easily customized by gas utilities or other interested parties. Please contact AGA for assistance. Condensing gas furnace Gas fired tankless water heater TBD A portfolio of vignettes can represent a range of customer circumstances and value mixes. 39

41 Vignette 1: Natural gas improves resilience and comfort of a Midwestern Zero Net Energy home, reducing CO 2 at a lower cost Nick Rumas and Shin-ae Kang are building a ZNE home near Chicago, IL. Sustainability is very important to them, as is affordability. Natural gas plays an important part in both of these efficiently heating, cooking, drying, as well as saving them money in construction and monthly bills. Profile Young couple near Chicago, IL Single family residential home, 2,200 sq ft Median income Most concerned about sustainability and affordability, to a lesser degree about comfort and resilience Energy sources Utility delivered natural gas Utility delivered electricity Solar roof PV (with net metering) Li-ion battery Technologies Heating: Hydronic radiant system with gas absorption heat pump Cooling: Electric heat pump with exterior condenser and interior evaporator Water heating: Gas absorption heat pump Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave Other: Electric battery, building envelope, programmable thermostat 40

42 Vignette 2: In the future, Renewable Natural Gas is a more affordable and effective way to improve sustainability in an Oregon home In 2033, Liliana and Jay have a home outside Portland that is a showplace of new technology, but only a few years ahead in their progressive neighborhood. They showcase the applications of renewable gas lighting, outdoor heating, indoor, water heating, along with electric EVs, solar roof, LED lighting, battery - and whole home controls and efficiency that minimizes use of energy wherever possible Profile 3,400 sq ft home in Portland, OR Couple in their 50s, no kids Most concerned about demonstrating sustainability commitment while enjoying the full potential of technology Energy sources Utility delivered renewable gas Utility delivered electricity Solar roof PV (with net metering) Li-ion battery Technologies Heating: Retrofitted gas furnace (Transport Membrane Humidifier) Cooling: Electric heat pump Water heating: Gas tankless water heater Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave Other: Building envelope, IoT based thermostat, Energy management and information system; outdoor gas heating, gas lighting, EV Notes: Residential electric rates assume 1% annual escalation per EIA 41

43 Vignette 3: Efficient natural gas technologies are a lower cost and faster way for property owners to comply with regional climate policies, while also significantly decreasing energy bills for renters in Hartford, CT Paul is a single parent with three children who chose to rent a 1,400 sq ft townhome near Hartford, CT because the landlord had just replaced this older unit s aging, high maintenance appliances with new, more efficient gas appliances. First cost was very important to the landlord, so he chose the least expensive option available, which was modern gas appliances with energy efficiency incentives from the local gas utility. Paul s family was able to enjoy the comfort of a warm and efficient home with lower utility bills and more cash for the holidays. Profile Family of 4 near Hartford, CT Rented 1,400 sq ft townhome Lower income, LIHEAP eligible Most concerned about affordability, and also with comfort and safety with kids in the house Technologies Heating: Natural gas furnace Cooling: Electric AC Water heating: High efficiency gas boiler Laundry: Standard electric washer and gas dryer Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave Other: Building envelope, efficient lighting, low flow shower heads, programmable thermostat Notes: Technology choices represent typical decisions made by a landlord of a rental property, homeowners may make different choices 42

44 Vignette 4a: Gas innovation and efficiency is the only practical path for an NYC home to make a near term impact on state 80x50 goals The owners of single family home in Queens, NY are concerned about meeting their city s 80 x 50 goals. They would like to know what role they can play in GHG emission reduction. While they understand that cutting emissions may raise their energy costs, they also want to make sure those expenditures are worthwhile. How would their GHG emissions and costs for space heating change if they switched to an electric heat pump, using current technologies? Profile 2,000 Ft 2 single family home, NYC Metro area Home heated to 70 o F Outside air temperature cases: 10 o F to 30 o F City Gate Electric System Gas Need: 10 o F: 104,200 Btu 20 o F: 57,900 Btu 30 o F: 34,700 Btu Gas Losses Gas Need: 10 o F: 61,200 Btu 20 o F: 51,000 Btu 30 o F: 40,800 Btu Electrification Gas Generation Marginal Unit (NYC) Gas Losses Direct Gas Use (not including future innovation) Electric Losses Emissions: 10 o F: 12.2 lb CO 2 20 o F: 6.8 lb CO 2 30 o F: 4.1 lb CO 2 70 o F ASHP vs. 80% Efficient Gas Boiler Emissions: 10 o F: 7.2 lb CO 2 20 o F: 6.0 lb CO 2 30 o F: 4.8 lb CO 2 Efficient residential gas heating costs NYC customers much less, and below ~25 o F has lower CO 2 emissions than electric under today s marginal generation mix Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison 43

45 Vignette 4b: New York City and Westchester rely heavily on gas; electrification means fundamental redesign Summary Total energy delivered by the gas system significantly exceeds the energy delivered by the electric system At summer peak, the gas system delivers more than twice the energy delivered by the electric system (1,770 MDt/day vs. 870 MDt/day) as gas also supports local electric and steam generation At winter peak, gas is about 60% more than summer (2,780 MDt/day vs. 1,770 MDt/day), and 3X more than the electric energy delivered at summer peak One fundamental reason for the primacy of gas customer heating needs require changing room temperatures up to 60 o F, while cooling requires less than 25 o F Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison 44

46 Vignette 4c: Electrification of New York City and Westchester to achieve 80 X 50 presents technical and customer cost challenges Summary System impact of electrification: building the electric delivery system to well beyond its current peak day delivery With about 23% Electric System Energy Efficiency and 80% Renewables, a shift to 100% electric heat and hot water may need to support a winter peak of up to ~29,000 MW, compared to a current electric peak of ~13,300 MW in summer and ~9,000 MW in winter With about 60% Electric System Energy Efficiency and 70% Renewables, a shift to 100% electric heat and hot water may need to support a winter peak of up to ~18,500 MW, compared to a current electric peak of ~13,300 MW in summer and ~9,000 MW in winter Customer impact of electrification to achieve 80 X 50 GHG Reduction Goals will lead to significantly higher energy bills and significant retrofit expense Higher bills: ~ $3,700/ year today (2018$) to ~ $9,000/year in 2050 ($2018) for 2,000 Ft2 single family home Direct customer cost for incremental electric retrofit: ~ $25k-$35k ($2018) Note: Developed in collaboration with Con Edison 45

47 Vignette template 5: Fixed-income retiree in Florida Primary values: Affordability and Comfort Mary retired to a senior development in The Villages, Florida in Her primary energy concerns are around future increases in her utility bills, and surprises when she needs to spend her savings on home repairs. She enjoys cooking with gas and the warmth of her heating system on the occasional chilly evening. Profile 1,600 sq ft home in northern Florida Retired for over a decade, with careful budgeting to enjoy lifestyle and family Most concerned about predictability of bills and minimization of maintenance Illustrative Technologies Heating and Cooling: High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs (A.5) Water heating: Condensing water heater (A.6) Drying: Standard electric Cooking: Standard gas range and oven 46

48 Vignette template 6: Home developer Primary values: Affordability, Sustainability and Customer Choice A residential developer in greater Boston is faced with the decision to incorporate gas infrastructure in her development plan. She is worried about additional cost, but doesn t want to limit customer choice, and may receive a price premium for offering highly efficient gas to buyers Profile Home developers have to make a decision on how much electrical and gas infrastructure to provide Level of electric and gas delivery capacity installed depends on view of future technology and usage trends Including gas infrastructure provides homeowners a choice of using gas appliances, which are often more economical Access to gas also allows for additional amenities, e.g. gas fireplaces, grills which increase comfort and the value of homes and provide more choices to homeowners Technologies Heating: Electric heat pump + Gas furnace (F.7), Cooling: Electric heat pump Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater (B.1) Drying: Standard electric Cooking: Standard gas range and oven Other: Gas fireplace, building envelope (K.1, K.3, K.4), IoT thermostat (I.3) Future: CHP micro-turbine (D.4) Illustrative 47

49 Vignette template 7a: NGVs on a RNG Primary goals: Sustainability and Affordability The state of California is looking to reduce carbon emissions from transportation via several policies: Assembly Bill 32 (AB32), Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Renewable Fuel Standard Program (federal) Policy LCFS uses a market-based cap and trade approach to lowering the greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum-based transportation fuels Signed into law in 2007 beginning with a 0.25% in 2011 culminating in a 10% total reduction in 2020 in carbon intensity Outcome Policies have created financial value in converting current fleets of medium and heavy duty vehicle to CNG or other cleaner fuels (via RIN and LCFS credits) Resulting adoption rate is very high. More than 80% of NGVs on the road currently use RNG Illustrative 1. The same mileage is assumed for both types of vehicles 48

50 Vignette 7b: CA Policy vignette California Whole Home Energy Efficiency Upgrade Program Rebate up to $5,500 for whole-home EE upgrades (based on efficiency points) Includes furnace, water heater, windows, insulation, air conditioning Specially trained contractors provide advice on whole-home approach Has the potential to generate much more reduction than piece-by-piece rebates California Heavy Duty Vehicle Incentive Program (HVIP) Focused on a difficult to address segment (HD Trucks) Up to $40,000 per truck employing ultra-low-nox engine 49

51 Vignette 9: Natural gas innovation reduces CO 2 and also delivers resilience and affordability to a family in Missouri The Johnson family of St Louis, MO, has lived through several ice storms, and chose their current house due to its gas appliances. Their previous home was all electric, and they suffered through the multi-day outages that typically follow ice storms. They like the comfort of their gas furnace, and are interested in learning more about money-saving advanced gas solutions. Profile 3,200 sq ft home in eastern Missouri Family of 4 Most concerned about resilience and affordability Technologies Heating: Condensing gas furnace Cooling: Electric heat pump Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater Laundry: Standard electric washer and dryer Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; standard electric refrigerator, dishwasher and microwave Other: Building envelope, programmable thermostat 50

52 Vignette template 12: Large home near Houston Primary values: Comfort and Resilience Profile 10,000 sq ft house Access to electrical grid and gas connection Owner most concerned with ongoing large energy consumption, but also with power outages during hurricane season Largest energy uses are: heating pool, cooling and heating house and domestic hot water heating Technologies Power: Micro CHP (D.4), grid electricity and utility delivered gas Heating: Micro CHP (D.4) Cooling: Electric heat pump Water heating: Gas fired tankless water heater (B.1) Drying: Standard electric Cooking: Standard gas range and oven; outdoor gas grill Other: Building envelope (K.1, K.3, K.4), IoT thermostat (I.3), gas fireplace Owners of a large residence near Houston, TX want to make their home comfortable for family, and welcoming for entertaining. Natural gas plays a role in the enjoyment of their home, and with innovative technologies, the homeowners can substantially improve efficiency. Their energy needs include heating and cooling their 10,000 sq ft house, hot water for 6 bathrooms, cooking, lighting, heating a pool and a hot tub and backup generation. Despite the volume of use, they are concerned with on-going monthly energy costs and wants to make sure that their home stays safe and online, even in severe storms. Illustrative 51

53 Content Executive Summary Project Scope and Approach Gas Technologies End Use Pathways Vignettes Appendix 52

54 Detailed scoring for all technologies (1 of 5) Technical concept Condensing Technology Hot water heating / boilers Kitchen Code Application/project Efficiency Benefit GHG Benefit Non-Energy / Emission Benefits Barriers to Adoption Econo mics Rating (1 = worst, 5 = best) Accessible Market / Scale A.1 Rooftop units - heating and cooling A.2 Integrated Contact Condensing Water Heater A.3 In-Situ Flue Burner A.4 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) A.5 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs A.6 Residential Condensing Water Heater A.7 Condensing Wall Furnace A.8 Condensing economizer - Extracts latent heat from boiler flue gas; usually in series with (sensible) heat exchanger. Industrial Boilers; high pressure > 85 psi B.1 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters B.2 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) B.3 Boost Heat - Thermal compression B.4 SuperPerm Burner for Water Heaters B.5 Combined Space and Water Heating Systems B.6 Steam Boiler with built-in energy recovery B.7 Residential Vapor Vacuum Heating Oxygen Membrane Enhanced Burner - Polymer in the burner assembly that B.8 enriches oxygen constituency in the combustion air; higher permeance than other materials and allows for higher oxygen content which increases combustion efficiency C.1 Grease Trap Htx - Extract heat from waste grease to pre-heat hot water Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and C.2 using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust C.3 Combination steam and heat oven C.4 Commercial Pilotless Gas Range C.5 Boilerless steamer (duplicate below) - Multistacked convention steamer for high volume cooking Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. Overall Score 53

55 Detailed scoring for all technologies (2 of 5) Technical concept On-Site Generation Burners Heat Pumps Code Application/project Efficiency Benefit GHG Benefit Non-Energy / Emission Benefits Barriers to Adoption Econo mics Accessible Market / Scale Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best) D.1 High Efficiency Thermoelectric Generators D.2 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw - Conventional Stirling D.3 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw - Resonance Stirling D.4 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw - Tim Kingston - GRI D.5 Zero Net Emission Home D.6 1 kwe residential-scale CHP system NS 2 NS NS NS NS NS NS D.7 Solid oxide fuel cells D.8 Advanced direct carbon fuel cell E.1 Demonstration high production fryers E.2 Conveyor broiler improvements E.3 Enhanced radiant heat transfer with advanced coatings - High emissivity coating that reduce porosity of thermal burners E.4 Unplugged ENERGY STAR Water Heater E.5 3D-printed industrial process burner E.6 Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-lowpower gas-water-heater control technology F.1 Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation F.2 Residential gas heat-pump water heater F.3 Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning F.4 Thermally-Driven Ground-Source Heat Pump F.5 Thermally-Driven fluidic compressor; evaporation phase energy is captured and reused in the refrigeration process; achieve higher COPs in the cycle F.6 Thermolift heat pump NS NS NS NS NS NS NS F.7 Electric Heat Pump + Gas Furnace F.8 Solar thermal heat pump Overall Score Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. 2. Not scored 54

56 Detailed scoring for all technologies (3 of 5) Technical concept Changes to laundry processing Solar Thermal / Heat Recovery Improved Energy Management Code Application/project Efficiency Benefit GHG Benefit Non-Energy Barriers to Econo / Emission Adoption mics Benefits Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best) Accessible Market / Scale G.1 Next-Generation Advanced Gas Dryer Development JC to review UTD document G.2 Commercial Dryer Modulating Gas Retrofit G.3 Dryer Moisture Sensor Retrofit G.4 Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone) G.5 Advanced gas infra-red burner to compete with electric G.6 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics H.1 Heat wheels (air-to-air heat exchanger) - Use enthalpy in HVAC return air to pre-heat inlet air drawn from the atmosphere H.2 Thermal Destratification Fans H.3 Air Solar Collector System H.4 Multifamily reflective heat barriers H.5 Flue Gas Condenser for heat recovery H.6 HE Grain Dryer- Waste heat exchanger and recovery built into grain dryer I.1 A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits I.2 Outdoor-air-temperature-based ventilation control I.3 IoT based thermostats I.4 Variable vent louvres - Wireless sensors communicate to smart thermostat; vary air flow to meet temperature set point I.5 Wireless Steam Trap Monitor - Detects failed open or close steam trap and provides alarm at centralized control Overall Score Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. 55

57 Detailed scoring for all technologies (4 of 5) Technical concept Improved Energy Management (cont ed) Transportation Code I.6 I.7 I.8 Application/project Predictive Analytics Energy Management System Overlay - Continuous based commissioning of existing BAS Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems - Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable) Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow Efficiency Benefit GHG Benefit Non-Energy Barriers to Econo / Emission Adoption mics Benefits Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best) Accessible Market / Scale Overall Score I.9 Energy Management and Information System (EMIS) I.10 Innovative On-Demand WH Pump I.11 Commercial Pneumatic Thermostat I.12 Automated O2 Control Systems J.1 Natural gas internal combustion engine vehicles running on compressed natural gas J.2 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) J.3 natural-gas-vehicle home-refueling appliances J.4 Free-Piston Linear-Motor Compressor J.5 CWI 6.7-Liter Medium-Duty Engine Development J.6 Improvements in High-Volume Dispensing Performance J.7 Free-Piston Linear-Motor Compressor Scale-Up J.8 CNG Fuel Station Safety, Performance, and Best Practices Audit Kit NS 2 NS NS J.9 High-Volume, Off-Road CNG Applications Analysis NS NS J to 15-Liter Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Engines for Class 8 Trucks NS 2 NS Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. 2. Not scored 56

58 Detailed scoring for all technologies (5 of 5) Technical concept Building Envelope Miscellaneous Code Application/project Efficiency Benefit GHG Benefit Non-Energy Barriers to Econo / Emission Adoption mics Benefits Rating (1 to 5; 1 = worst, 5 = best) Accessible Market / Scale K.1 Insulation K.2 Advanced aerogel insulating material for window insulation NS 2 NS NS NS NS NS NS K.3 Building materials K.4 Windows L.1 Commercial and industrial air barriers L.2 Natural gas cooling Overall Score Notes: 1. Scores robust across multiple weightings and corroborated with GTI and other industry experts. 2. Not scored 57

59 Additional references for prioritized technologies (1 of 4) Technical concept Code Technology/Reference Condensing Technologies Hot water heating / boilers Kitchen A.4 A.5 B.1 B.2 B.3 B.5 C.2 C.3 C.5 Transport Membrane Humidifier (TMH) Center for Energy and Environment, Field Study of a moisture and heat transfer furnace retrofit device, 2015 Research Project Summaries , UTD, 2017 High Efficiency Condensing Condo Packs Technology Snapshot, Residential, Multi-Family, Through-the-Wall Condensing Furnace/AC Package, GTI, 2017 Tankless water heater - Maintenance-free approaches for tankless water heaters End-Use Solutions, Volume 4, Number 1, GTI, May 2009 Solar-assisted heating - PV assisted domestic hot water heater (potable) Solar Water Heaters, DOE Boost Heat - Thermal compression BoostHeat, Combined Space and Water Heating Systems Advanced Gas Water Heaters for High Performance DHW and Combi-System Applications, 2015 ACEEE Hot Water Forum Kitchen ventilation improvement by using smoke sensors in exhaust stream and using information to control variable speed fans in the exhaust Demand control kitchen ventilation (DCKV) using sensor and optimization of fan use Demand control (DCKV) systems were developed that adjust CKV Design Guides, Food Service Technology Center Kitchen Ventilation Publications, Food Service Technology Center Research Project Summaries , UTD, 2017 Combination steam and heat oven Blodgett BLCT-6E Electric Mini Combi Over Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2017 Unox XAVC-10FS-GPR Gas Combination Over Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2017 Alto Shaam CTP20-20G Gas Combination Over Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2016 Boilerless steamer (duplicate below) - Multistacked convention steamer for high volume cooking Accutemp Evolution Gas Steamer Test Report, Food Service Technology Center, 2014 Market Forge Sirius II Gas Steamer Test Report, Food Service Technology Center,

60 Additional references for prioritized technologies (2 of 4) Technical concept Code Technology/Reference On-Site Generation Burners Heat Pumps D.2 D.4 D.5 D.7 E.1 E.6 F.1 F.2 F.3 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw - Conventional Stirling Catalog of CHP Technologies, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Combined Heat and Power Partnership, 2017 Combined Heat & Power Production: Micro-CHP with Stirling Engine, Siemens, 2009 Micro CHP 1 to 50 kw GRI Catalog of CHP Technologies, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Combined Heat and Power Partnership, 2017 Zero Net Emission Home Zero Energy Ready Home, DOE Zero Energy Project Research Project Summaries , UTD, 2017 Solid oxide fuel cells Osaka Gas, Demonstration high production fryers Research Project Summaries , UTD, 2017 Unplugged power burners - Two-Phase Thermo-Syphoning (TPTS) technology and ultra-low power gas-water-heater control technology Two Phase Thermo-Syphon Water Heater Technology Development, TPTS Development Company, 2018 Next Aire GEHP - performance evaluation. Natural-gas-engine driven heat pump in a heating-dominated climate Gas Engine-Driven Heat Pump (GHP) Cold Climate Field Demonstration (EW ), DOD s Environmental Research Programs, 2015 Research Project Summaries , UTD, 2017 Residential gas heat-pump water heater Commercial Water Heating Using Gas Absorption Heat Pumps, ACEEE Hot Water Forum, 2016 Research Project Summaries , UTD, 2017 Application of Innovative Gas Heat-Pump Design to Space Conditioning Gas-Fired Absorption Heat Pump, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, DOE Research Project Summaries , UTD,

61 Additional references for prioritized technologies (3 of 4) Technical concept Code Technology/Reference Changes to laundry processing Improved Energy Management G.4 G.6 I.1 I.3 I.7 I.8 Chemicals for Commercial Laundry (non-ozone) Commercial Laundry Facilities Introduction, Alliance for Water Efficiency Energy Intensive Process in Professional Laundry Service: Up-to-date Approach, CHEMICAL ENGINEERING TRANSACTIONS, Vol.35, 2013 Use ozone and cold water instead of detergent and hot water, saving energy and providing better wash characteristics Nicor Gas Energy Efficiency Emerging Technology Program, 1005: Ozone Laundry, 2013 Research Project Summaries , UTD, 2017 Emerging Technology Program, 2014, GTI A simplified method for determining duct leakage in weatherization audits Research Project Summaries , UTD, 2017 IoT based thermostats (ie Nest, Honeywell, etc.) Nest Learning Thermostat Pilot Program Savings Assessment, Bonneville Power Administration & Franklin Public Utility District, 2016 Evaluation of the Programmable and Smart Thermostat Program, The Cadmus Group, 2015 Smart Thermostats, A CLEAResult White Paper, prepared for Commonwealth Edison, 2015 PG&E Smart Thermostat Study: First Year Findings, PG&E s Emerging Technologies Program, 2016 Certified Products, Energy Star Smart Thermostats Certified to Deliver Smart Saving, Energy Star National Study of Potential of Smart Thermostats for Energy Efficiency and Demand Response, ACEEE, 2016 Multi-family Demand Controls for Central Domestic HW Systems - Automated controls learn behavior and temperature patterns and adjusts set points (potable) Energy-Efficient Controls for Multifamily Domestic Hot Water, DOE, Building America Webinar, 2015 Central Domestic Hot Water Systems in Multi-Family Buildings, ACEEE 2010 Hot Water Forum On-Demand Controls for Central Hot Water Systems White Paper, GTI, 2014 Thermostatically controlled low flow shower head - restriction head adjusts automatically based on temperature and flow Pilot Study for a Thermostatic Shower Restriction Valve, Evolve Technologies, 2015 Low Flow Showerheads and Aerators, PG&E,

62 Additional references for prioritized technologies (4 of 4) Technical concept Code Technology/Reference Transportation J.2 Building Envelope K.1 Fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Natural Gas for Cars, DOE, 2015 Insulation Energy Saver, Weatherization, DOE Energy Savings at Home, Energy Star Insulation GWT, GTI 61

63 More detailed examples of emerging gas technologies Conference panel organized by Enovation Partners as part of search for relevant gas technologies Emerging Gas Technologies for Lower GHG Emissions May 16, 2018 MODERATOR: BILL KEMP Director, Enovation Partners PETER OLLIKAINEN Head of Business Development, Finno Energy PHILIPPE DUJARDIN Chief Financial Officer, BoostHEAT NADÈGE LECLERCQ Director, Market Development, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Westport Fuel Systems MICH HEIN CEO, Electrochaea [Insert link to AGA Web site with full conference panel presentations] 62