Bangkok: Chaos or System? 30 years of urban development and transport planning

Transcription

1 Bangkok: Chaos or System? 30 years of urban development and transport planning H. D. Kammeier, Bangkok This is a selection of 18 slides from an earlier presentation on long-term review of urban development issues (56 slides, 200 1

2 Urban development in a nutshell Enormous growth: Population, economy, spatial expansion Growth and structural change without any significant influence of urban planning (until very recently) Main factors or drivers : Accessibility (public providers), plus Land Development (private sector) Economic structural change in the extended metropolitan area: Manufacturing >> Services Spatial changes: Several CBDs, leapfrogging, land fragmentation Models : Tokyo, Los Angeles, Asian Mega City Bangkok as one of the patterns of urbanization in Asia (but there are many fine differences among cities!) 2

3 Assumptions (1972) Reality (2002) (Bangkok Transportation Study, completed in 1975) Explicitly: Wrong! Still rather poor.. Urban planning exists and functions well (experts, 1970) National pop n growth slowly down Much from faster, > 3% down ( ) to < 1% Projected growth (Greater Bangkok Area, 1990) Correct 8 million estimate Implicitly: Long-term projection of economic Dynamics growth impossible and structural to imagine change for the whole country More important than assumed Role of the private sector as a driving force Linkages with and impacts of Much the global stronger economy than anticipated Changes of public awareness Much of environmental more than ever issues assumed 3

4 4

5 Trends (1): Economic growth in Thailand 15,0 10,0 Wachstum % p.a. 5,0 0,0-5,0-10,

6 Trends (2): Primacy of the Bangkok Region Comparison between Bangkok and Vicinity and Thailand as a whole Population (as of Dec. 1999) GRP (1997, at current market prices) Million persons % Million Baht % Bangkok Vicinity of Bangkok ,835, , Subtotal ,387, Richest subregion (Eastern subregion of the Central Region) Poorest region (Northeast) , , Thailand total ,724, Source: Compiled from Thailand in Figures,

7 Bangkok defined Pathumthani Nonthaburi BMA Samut Prakan 1. BMA only km 2 2. Greater Bangkok: BMA + 3 Provinces km 2 3. Bangkok and Vicinity : BMA + 5 Provinces km 2 4. Extended Metropolitan Region ; Industrial Heartland 7

8 Extended Metropolitan Region: Eastern Seaboard Industrial clusters Transport corridors 8

9 S W b t

10 The extended Bangkok Region, a mega-city bsystem Characteristics Built form Drivers Population Major threat ore Knowledge, tertiary economy Polynuclear Mixed land use Hotels, offices, condominiums Mass rail transit Global / national fusion & synergy Increasingly 2 nd / 3 rd generation Slowing immigration Too rapid deconcentration burbs Residential (commuters) Retailing Mature (lower value) industry Suburban villages (muban) Gated communities Mega malls Expressways Radial development (North & East) Thai property developers Households from Core, seeking space at affordable price Some worker housing Mature industry threatened by international competition (Samu Prakan, Pathum Thani, e.g.) urbia Industrial estates Industrial support infrastructure Industrial estates Ports Spontaneous (squatter) worker settlements Exogenous FDI driven Infrastructure loan driven (OECF, e.g.) Rural migrants primarily from Northeast Overly dependent exogenous drivers Source: Siriluck and Kammeier (2002), based on Webster (2000) 10

11 Land Use Scenarios, Bangkok Transportation Study (1) Uncontrolled Growth (2) Polycentric Development ) Similar Pattern: Greater Bangkok Plan 11

12 MRT Systems: Politics and Planning ar MRTA Subway (formerly Skytrain ) Cabinet resolution for MRT; feasibility studies, design; bids for private investment... Bids invited, Lavalin (Canada) successful, concession approved Lavalin terminated MRTA founded BOT concession given & scrapped; system to go underground Construction of Blue Line commenced Slow & expensive End-2003 target for opening of Blue Line Hopewell Project (MRT + Expressway) 1990: Concession without design or feasibility work (!) 1992: Ground breaking Unbelievably sloppy and 1994: Construction starts corrupt project... Public 1997: Work suspended, investment contract scrapped lost Open question: Continuation scaled-down project? Bangkok Transit System (BTS) For many years ( ): No implementation 1991: Bids invited Main reasons: National political priorities Institutional chaos 1992: BTSC approved 1993: Tenders 1994: Fast, Cabinet efficient... decision: G underground; A ray of reversed hope (! 1995: Construction for Bangkokstarte Dec. 99: Opening Plans for extending lines 12

13 One, two, three... MRT Systems in competition ar MRTA Subway (formerly Skytrain ) Hopewell Project (MRT + Expressway) Bangkok Transit System (BTS) 76 Cabinet resolution for MRT; feasibility studies, design; bids for private investment... Everything lost - Time and money years lost, but then 85- Bids Nearly invited, Lavalin (Canada) years successful, lost concession in incoherent approved 92decisions Lavalin and terminated haggling MRTA founded BOT concession given & scrapped; system to go underground Construction of Blue Line commenced Slow progress, expensive project End-2003 target for opening of Blue Line 1990: Concession without design or feasibility work (!) 1992: Ground breaking Unbelievably sloppy and 1994: Construction starts corrupt project : Work suspended, contract scrapped Open question: Continuation scaled-down project? 1991: Bids invited 1992: BTSC approved 1993: Tenders Fast, efficient : Cabinet A ray of decision: hope G underground; reversed (! for Bangkok 1995: Construction starte Dec. 99: Opening Plans for extending lines 13

14 Bangkok s pride: BTS, in full swing since December 99 14

15 MRT Status System 1995 Proposal 1974: Four Lines 15

16 Underground lines: Blue Line under construction ?? Red Line Planned 16

17 Grand design for 2020? Existing system

18 Freeways and bridges Los Angeles style 18

19 Some conclusions Chaos? System? Some Bangkok Projects can be added to The Great Planning Disasters (Sir Peter Hall, 1982) The Chaos Principle is on the decline Notions of a System are increasingly noticeable The Vitality / Resilience is simply amazing Progress in Urban Management (including environmental management and action) Prognosis: Cautiously optimistic, but obstacles and risks must be recognized realistically 19