Which burglary security devices work for whom and in what context? BURGLARY & SECURITY PROJECT CONFERENCE

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1 Which burglary security devices work for whom and in what context? Andromachi Tseloni (LU) and Nick Tilley (UCL) Graham Farrell (SFU), Louise Grove (LU), Rebecca Thompson (IPSCJ), Emily Evans (LU) and Emmanuel Aboagye Nimo (LU) BURGLARY & SECURITY PROJECT CONFERENCE 21 January 2015, 9.30am-3.30pm 1 Economic and Social Research Council, Secondary Data Analysis Initiative, Phase 1, ES/K003771/1 (NTU) and ES/K003771/2

2 Issues to be explored Wider research programme Burglary trends & data Which burglary security devices work? Burglar alarms Modus Operandi over time How domestic burglary security has changed over time? Which burglary security devices work for whom? in what context? Distributive justice for security and burglary & conclusions Current work 2

3 Wider research programme Sustaining the Crime Drop in Industrialised Nations: A Crime-Specific Problem-Solving Approach (Farrell, Tilley and Tseloni; ; ESRC) Which burglary security devices work for whom and in what context? (Tseloni, Tilley, Grove and Farrell; ; ESRC-SDAI Phase 1) What is the role of population group- and context- specific changes in personal security and routine activities in explaining the decline in stranger and acquaintance violence? (Tseloni, Farrell, Grove and Tilley; ; ESRC-SDAI Phase 2) 3

4 Burglary trends & Data Domestic burglary trends, /12 Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) CSEW burglary levels peaked in In 2011/12 households were 3 times less likely to be burgled than in 1993 (risk fell from 7% to 2%) /08 1. Burglar alarm 2. Dummy alarm 3. Deadlocks 4. Window locks 5. Security chains 6. Indoor lights 7. Outdoor lights 8. Window bars/grilles Burglar alarm 2. Deadlocks 3. Window locks 4. Lights 2008/ /12 9. CCTV camera 4

5 Which burglary security devices work? 5

6 Security Protection Factors of selected burglary security devices against burglary, 2008/ /12 CSEW WIDE SPF=49 Security Protection Factors WD SPF=12.5 EWD SPF=34 0 Burglar alarm Door deadlocks or double locks External lights Window locks Window & Door locks Security chains, Window & Door locks External lights, Window & Door locks External & Internal lights, Window & Door locks CCTV, Security chains, Window & Door locks 6

7 Most effective security combinations Windows needing a key Internal lights on a timer Double door locks or deadlocks External lights on a sensor 7

8 How domestic burglary security has changed overtime? 8

9 Percentage (%) of total sample Security devices presence, /12 Individual or add-on presence Source ONS Individual presence of security devices Window locks Double locks/deadlocks Outdoor lights Security chains/bolts/bars Burglar alarm Indoor lights Window locks Double locks or deadlocks Security Chains External Lights on Timer/Sensor Burglar Alarm Internal Lights on Timer/Sensor Dummy Alarm Window Bars/Grilles 20.0 Dummy box / / / / / / / / / / /12 No security Window bars/grilles 2 0 CSEW Sweep 9

Percentage (%) of total sample Security combinations presence, 1998-2011/12 16 14 Window and Door locks (WD) 12 10 8 6 4 2 WD+External lights

10 Percentage (%) of total sample Security combinations presence, / Window and Door locks (WD) WD+External lights (EWD) WD+Security chains (WSD) EWD+Burglar alarm (EWBD) EWD+Security chains (EWSD) EWBD+Internal lights (EIWBD) WIDE 0 Crime Survey for E&W Sweep 10

11 Percentage (%) of total sample Households security profiles, / Any most effective security combination (WD, EWD or WIDE) Any individual security 10 5 No security device 0 Crime Survey for E&W Sweep 11

0809-1112 30 20 10 0 Window and Door locks (WD) WD+External lights (EWD)

12 Security Protection Factors Security Protection Factors against burglary for combined devices, / Window and Door locks (WD) WD+External lights (EWD) WD+Security chains (WSD) EWD+ Burglar alarm (EWBD) EWD+Security chains (EWSD) WIDE 12

13 Which burglary security devices work for whom? 13

Odds ratio Burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE within social and private renters compared to home owners, 2008/09-2010/11 3.50 3.

14 Odds ratio Burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE within social and private renters compared to home owners, 2008/ / Social renters have 190% higher burglary odds and 73% lower odds of WIDE presence than owner-occupiers Burglary Victim Presence of WIDE Private renters have 37% higher burglary odds and 73% lower odds of WIDE presence than owner-occupiers 1.00 Home owners = Social renters Private renters 14

15 /02-04/05 05/06-07/08 08/09-11/ /02-04/05 05/06-07/08 08/09-11/12 Odds ratio Burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE within social and private renters compared to home owners, / Burglary odds ratio of social renters relative to home owners nearly tripled when the average household is 3 times less likely to be burgled. Burglary Risk Presence of WIDE Sustained gap in presence of WIDE between home owners and others Social Tenants (Council housing resident) - Private Renting Tenants Home owners = 1 Bars shading reflects the strength of the statistical significance of the effect of tenure on burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE security. Models without area factors. N = 812-3,998 15

16 Odds ratio Burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE within ethnic minorities compared to whites, / /02-04/05 05/06-07/08 08/09-11/ /02-04/05 05/06-07/08 08/09-11/ /02-04/05 05/06-07/08 08/09-11/ Burglary Risk Presence of WIDE White = Black - Asian - Mixed, Chinese or Other Bars shading reflects the strength of the statistical significance of the effect of ethnicity on burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE security. Models without area factors. N = 812-3,998 16

17 /02-04/05 05/06-07/08 08/09-11/ /02-04/05 05/06-07/08 08/09-11/12 Odds ratio Burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE in inner cities and urban areas compared to rural areas, / Burglary Risk Presence of WIDE Rural = Inner City - Urban Bars shading reflects the strength of the statistical significance of the effect of area type on burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE security. Models without area factors. N = 812-3,998 17

18 Which burglary security devices work for whom and in what context? 18

19 Burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE across area deprivation for the base household, 2007/ / Probability of presence of WIDE Probability of being burgled Base = 52 years old white household reference person, two adults without children, professional social class, earning 20k- 29,999, owning their home and 2 cars, living in a detached house in a SE rural area of nationally average area characteristics (% private renting, % under 5yrs olds, & unoccupied household Area poverty (standardised values) 19

20 Burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE across area deprivation for the base and social renting households, 2007/ / Probability of presence of WIDE Probability of being burgled Probability of presence of WIDE within social tenants Probability of being burgled for social renting households Area poverty (standardised values) 20

21 Burglary victimisation and presence of WIDE across area deprivation for social renting households on 5-10k without a car, 2007/ / Probability of presence of WIDE within social tenants Probability of being burgled for social renting households without car earning 5-10K Probability of being burgled for social renting households Probability of presence of WIDE within social tenants without car earning 5-10K Area poverty (standardised values) 21

22 Distributive justice for security and burglary Burglary risk and effective security combinations are highly negatively correlated between households and between Basic Command Units. The following population groups are more burgled and have lower availability of effective security than others: o Social or Private renters o Lone parents o Households with household representative person of Asian (Indian-sub-continent), Chinese or other origin o Households on low (< 10,000) or non-reported income o Households without a car and /or o Households living in deprived areas 22

23 Conclusions Combinations of security devices on average afford 30 times more protection than no security, especially in more recent years and /or by combinations including Window locks, Internal lights, Door double or deadlocks and External lights. Overall WIDE seems to be the combination that confers the best value for number of devices protection consistently since During the burglary falls both the presence of effective security combinations and the preventive power of these combinations increased, reflecting perhaps increases in new housing. Counter-intuitively burglar alarms are associated with increased risk of burglary, especially in more recent years. 23

24 Policy Implications in the afternoon discussion session pm 24

25 Current work Neighbourhood watch effect Burglary signatures 25

26 Thanks to the following Advisory Committee ACPO: Burglary & Secured by Design Home Office: Centre for Applied Science and Technology & Designing Out Crime Team Neighbourhood and Home Watch Network Nottingham Crime and Drugs Partnership Office for National Statistics Police Forces: Nottinghamshire, West Mercia & West Yorkshire Victim Support: Derbyshire, Leicestershire and Rutland & Nottinghamshire Academic experts: Nottingham Trent University & University of Huddersfield Dr Emmanuel Aboagye-Nimo 26

Thank you for listening Contact details: My email: a.

27 Thank you for listening Contact details: My Project Website: research/projects/burglarysecurity/ BURGLARY & SECURITY PROJECT CONFERENCE 27

Which burglary security devices work for whom and in what context? Briefing Note 1. September Background

Which burglary security devices work for whom and in what context? Briefing Note 1 September 2013 Background This is the first briefing note from the ESRC funded Secondary Data Analysis Initiative project