Swindon and Wiltshire Economic Assessment Chapter 2: Economic Geography. A report by Regeneris Consulting May 2018

Transcription

1 Swindon and Wiltshire Economic Assessment Chapter 2: Economic Geography A report by Regeneris Consulting May 2018

2 Contents 1 Purpose Theme analysis Travel to work patterns Housing markets Conclusions and policy implications... 17

3 1. Purpose 1.1 The purpose of this report is to describe, analyse and summarise the economic geography of Swindon and Wiltshire. While there is no standard approach to define an area s economic geography, we can usefully consider a number of indicators. Government guidance 1 suggests the use of: Travel to work areas Housing market areas Flow of goods, services and information within the local economy service market for consumers Administrative areas Attachment areas of facilities providing cultural and social well-being And/or transport network. 1.2 In addition, we have access to local Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA analysis) and Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMA) which benefit from a comprehensive evidence base. Table 1.1 RAG Rating for Data Sources Data Source Census, Commuting Flows IGeolise Census, Travel to Work Areas Hardisty Jones Associates, Swindon and Wiltshire Functional Economic Market Area Assessment Regeneris Consulting, Input-Output Model Opinion Research Services, Swindon and Wiltshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment RAG Amber Green Amber Green Red Green 1.1 Introducing Swindon and Wiltshire 1.3 Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership (SWLEP) is located within the South West region of the UK and comprises two unitary authorities: Swindon and Wiltshire. 1.4 The SWLEP area is predominantly rural and includes high quality landscapes and three designated areas of outstanding natural beauty (AONBs) covering the north west, central and south west portions of the LEP (Cotswold, Cranborne Chase and North Wessex Downs). 1 Source: Planning Practice Guidance, CLG,

4 1.5 The DEFRA rural-urban classification 2 categorises 82% of the land mass area as rural village and dispersed, with 8% as rural town and fringes, and just 10% as urban city and town. By contrast 64% of the population live in the urban city and town, 16% in rural town and fringes, and just 20% in rural villages and dispersed settings. Putting this into context, a smaller proportion of the total population reside in rural areas in neighbouring West of England LEP (23%), but significantly more in the South West region (49%). Looking eastwards, in the adjoining Oxfordshire and Enterprise M3 LEP areas 56% and 33% of the population live in rural areas, respectively. The proportion of the population living in rural areas across the South East is 32%, reflecting the density and size of urban settlements, when compared to the South West region 3. A distinct pattern of settlements and rural areas help to define SWLEP 1.6 SWLEP is largely rural in character, interspersed by a number of economic centres which intersect with key transit corridors. 1.7 Swindon is the largest town and largest commercial centre, with distinct economic strengths and a prominent position adjacent to the M4. As well as a major employment centre, Swindon is an important transport interchange and service centre, and has a considerable reach with its strengthening retail offer. 1.8 The southern portion of Wiltshire is home to the important commercial centres of Salisbury and Amesbury which serve large rural hinterlands. Both have economic links to neighbouring local authorities, including Dorset and Hampshire. Sector strengths include a nationally significant Life Sciences cluster centred around Porton. 1.9 The northern and western side of Wiltshire is characterised by a relatively dense pattern of small market towns, which straddle trunk road corridors. This includes Bradford on Avon, Chippenham, Corsham, Melksham, Trowbridge, Westbury, and Warminster. The area has strong links towards Bath, Bristol and includes an important agglomeration of economic activity around the A350 and A The central area of SWLEP is dominated by large expanses of rural land, punctuated by Calne, Devizes and Marlborough. Land based sectors play a significant role, as does the area s natural capital, which is a significant tourism asset. Swindon and Wiltshire has good connectivity and locational advantages 1.11 Swindon and Wiltshire s transport and communication corridors are important economic assets. The area is dominated by the M4 corridor, providing rapid east-west connectivity to London, the West Country and Wales, and interlinking with a wider motorway and road network. It is also close to important transport hubs, such as Bristol Airport, and further afield, Heathrow Airport and major ports at Avonmouth 2 At the MSOA level and consistent with the definition used by ONS 3 ONS, Local Authority Rural-Urban Classification, Note rural population percentage includes large market towns 2

5 and Bristol. There are several roads that intersect the SWLEP area, connecting urban settlements with smaller market towns and remote rural areas. These include the A419, A429, A346, A350, A361 and A303. Connectivity is further enhanced with a wide-reaching train network as explored in the Sustainable Economic Growth chapter. Figure 1.1 SWLEP Map Source: Regeneris Consulting, 2017 Growth Zones bring a natural focus for growth and investment 1.12 Within the SWLEP area there are three Growth Zones which have been identified as the focus for growth, physical development and infrastructure investment. Swindon-M4 Growth Zone Built around the M4 corridor and well-placed to extend growth into the area that has developed out of London through to Reading and Swindon, as well as the potential to draw in investment from the west out of Bristol and Bath. Within the Growth Zone, Swindon s urban 3

6 regeneration (town centre and cultural offer) has been prioritised. Both Chippenham and Corsham are within the Swindon-M4 and A350 Growth Zone. A350 Growth Zone Surrounding the A350, which acts as a key north-south artery, this includes towns such as Chippenham, Corsham, Trowbridge and Warminster 4. The Growth Zone has been established to attract investment through the development of urban sites, improvements to local infrastructure, fostering business expansion, through the delivery of high quality new homes and increasing the resilience of local high streets. Salisbury-A303 Growth Zone The Salisbury-A303 Growth Zone is comparably rural and geographically remote. It is served by prominent A roads, including the A36 and A338, to the A350 and M4 Growth Zones, to the South Coast ports and also Southampton Airport. The Growth Zone is expected to support the In a national context, SWLEP area sits on the boundary of the South West and South East regions. It shares its borders with local authorities that have different economic and physical profiles. These include Bath and North East Somerset (west), Berkshire (east), Dorset (south), Gloucestershire (north west), Hampshire (south east), Oxfordshire (east), and Somerset (south west). 4 Please note that Chippenham and Corsham lie within the A350 and Swindon-M4 Growth Zones accelerated delivery of housing sites in Salisbury and to be a driver of investment in business-critical infrastructure. 4

7 Figure 1.2 SWLEP in a Wider Context Source: Regeneris Consulting,

8 2. Theme Analysis 2.1 Travel to Work Patterns A relatively high level of self-containment 1.13 Self-containment refers to the proportion of residents who live and work in the same area. Overall, the SWLEP area has a self-containment rate of 78%. This varies from 82% (75,300 workers) in Swindon, to 76% (143,300) in Wiltshire. Compared to other local authorities in nearby comparator LEPs this is relatively high and a reflection of the workforce s embeddedness in the area. The 2015 core strategy for Wiltshire clearly highlights the desire for greater self-containment amongst market towns in Wiltshire. Table 1.2 Containment Rate LEP Local Authority Containment Rate Enterprise M3 Guildford 45% Slough 43% Oxfordshire Oxford 73% Vale of the White Horse 50% West of England Bath and North-East Somerset 65% City of Bristol 69% SWLEP Swindon 82% Wiltshire 76% Source: Regeneris Consulting, 2018; and ONS, UK Business Count Taking into consideration the number of people who commute into Swindon and Wiltshire versus the number of people who commute out of SWLEP, there is a net outflow of -16,500. There are clear internal differences, with Wiltshire experiencing a net loss of approximately -16,200 commuters whilst Swindon experiencing a minor net loss of Figure 1.3 Commuting Flows in SWLEP Source: ONS, 2011 Census; and Regeneris Consulting,

9 1.15 The travel to work relationship between the Swindon and Wiltshire Unitary Authorities is reflective of commuting patterns and the draw on labour from neighbouring local authority areas. From the 2011 Census, of the residents who commute to work, only 8% (7,200) of Swindon residents work in Wiltshire, whilst 6% (10,600) of Wiltshire residents work in Swindon. Overall, there is a net flow of -3,400 commuters from Wiltshire to Swindon, illustrative of the role Swindon plays as an employment destination for Wiltshire residents Whilst not explicit in available data, it is likely that the geographical size of Wiltshire obscures patterns of commuting and relative dependency on neighbouring areas such as Swindon. By way of example, one would expect northern areas of Wiltshire, which adjoin Swindon, to be more economically dependent and for travel to work flows to Swindon to be greater as a result. This is also likely to be true where connectivity (road, rail) means that economic centres such as Swindon are more accessible to workers Commuting patterns differ substantially between the two districts: Swindon exhibits strong outward commuter flows with areas to the North and East including the Vale of White Horse (-2,550), West Berkshire (-1,780), and Cotswolds (-1,780). Wiltshire exhibits strong outward commuter flows with districts to the West and South, including Bath and North East Somerset (-8,300), Test Valley (-2,860), South Gloucestershire (-3,160), and Bristol (-2,760), excluding Swindon. Of all SWLEP residents that commute out of the LEP to work, 4,950 or 7% travel to London, 1,270 (25.6%) being Swindon residents and 3,680 (74.4%) from Wiltshire. Real-time travel data helps to explain travel to work patterns 1.18 Our understanding of commuting can be further informed by analysis of real-time travel data. This looks to augment Census-based information but not contradict the expansive and robust assessment of economic geography undertaken as part of the FEMA This considers the economic centres within each of the identified Growth Zones and is based on an assumed maximum one-hour commute. The data is based on arrival at the place of by 9am by car and uses igeolise real-time travel analysis 6. In the figures below, areas shaded in grey are those that are unreachable from the red pinpoint under the criteria as set. 5 FEMA can be accessed here igeolise is a software which draws together a range of live data from public transport timetables to traffic to allow users to derive the catchment area for travel to a defined destination, arrival/departure time and mode of transport. Car travel has been used for this analysis, given the relative extensiveness of the public transport network versus personal car reliance. 7

10 1.20 The analysis is centred on Swindon-M4 (Swindon and Chippenham), A350 (Trowbridge and Warminster) and Salisbury-A303 (Salisbury and Amesbury) Swindon s and Chippenham s respective catchment areas stretch as far west as northern Bristol and south east Wales, respectively, as far east as the outskirts of Reading, and as far north as southern Cheltenham. However, the latter s southern reach covers northern Salisbury whilst the former s eastern coverage goes as far as south east Oxford. A more detailed study of transport infrastructure and its reach can be found in the Sustainable Economic Growth chapter. Figure 1.4 Swindon Catchment Area Figure 1.5 Chippenham Catchment Area Source: igeolise, 2017; and Regeneris Consulting, 2017 Source: igeolise, 2017; and Regeneris Consulting, Unsurprisingly, Trowbridge s catchment area (figure 2.4) covers more settlements to the north compared to Warminster, including southern Cirencester, Bristol and parts of Wales. Whilst Warminster, has a greater southern and eastern reach, stretching as far as Blandford Forum and Andover, respectively. Figure 1.6 Trowbridge Catchment Area Figure 1.7 Warminster Catchment Area Source: igeolise, 2017; and Regeneris Consulting, 2017 Source: igeolise, 2017; and Regeneris Consulting,

11 1.23 Salisbury s catchment area, unlike those above, covers a large area of Southampton and northern sections of Bournemouth. Whilst Amesbury is the only town analysed that reaches residents of Basingstoke. Figure 1.8 Salisbury Catchment Area Figure 1.9 Amesbury Catchment Area Source: igeolise, 2017; and Regeneris Consulting, 2017 Source: igeolise, 2017; and Regeneris Consulting, Analysis of current distances and travel times between key Swindon and Wiltshire centres and large cities reiterates the proximity of Swindon and Wiltshire to major economic centres such as Bath, Bristol, Southampton and London. Figure 1.10 Distances Between Key Swindon and Wiltshire Centres and Large Cities Source: Regeneris Consulting, As described in chapter 4, Swindon and Wiltshire has experienced a significant increase in rail passenger numbers since 2011 as shown by a 10% increase in entries and exits in Chippenham, 11% in Salisbury, and 14% in Swindon. This trend is set to continue with the completion of the Great Western Railway electrification in

12 Travel to work areas demonstrate SWLEP s external economic linkages 1.26 Setting aside administrative boundaries, analysis of commuting patterns from the 2011 Census by ONS identifies seven Travel-to-Work Areas (TTWAs) 7 across Swindon and Wiltshire. The largest TTWAs covering the region are Salisbury, Swindon, and Trowbridge. There are some small overlaps with other TTWAs, including Andover, Bath, and Blandford Forum and Gillingham. Figure 1.11 Swindon and Wiltshire TTWAs Source: Census, 2011; and Regeneris Consulting, The criteria for a TTWA is one where 75% or more of the resident population work in the area and at least 75% who work in the area live in the area. TTWAs are non-overlapping 10

13 Travel to work areas show a strong correlation with functional economic geographies 1.27 The TTWA areas provide a good fit with the identified Functional Economic Market Areas (FEMA), including: Swindon TTWA encompasses the majority of the town centres in the M4 Growth Zone, including Cirencester, which lies just outside of the SWLEP boundary. Economic centres within the A350 Growth Zone are relatively self-contained in the Trowbridge TTWA. The Salisbury-A303 Growth Zone is fully captured in the Salisbury TTWA The FEMA analysis considers spatial economic profiles, travel to work areas, commercial property market areas, housing market areas, consumer market areas, transport and infrastructure networks, economic governance and partnership areas. Growth trajectories in terms of population, employment and housing are also considered The latest assessment (2016) 8 identifies three FEMAs which define the economic geography of Swindon and Wiltshire. These are: Swindon/M4 Corridor FEMA This area stretches beyond Swindon s administrative boundaries to include southern areas of the Cotswolds, northern Wiltshire, and locations to the west in Oxfordshire and Berkshire. A350 Corridor and West/Central Wiltshire Town FEMA Overlapping the Swindon/M4 FEMA in the north, this FEMA is shaped by economic centres along the length of the A350 corridor, which have close economic ties with towns and urban centres immediately to the north and south. Salisbury/Amesbury/A303 Corridor FEMA Located to the south and west of SWLEP, this FEMA overlaps with the A350 corridor. There is an outwardfacing relationship with cities such as Southampton and London, but most travel to work patterns remain self-contained within the Wiltshire boundary. 8 Swindon and Wiltshire Functional Economic Market Area Assessment, Hardisty Jones Associates,

14 Figure 1.12 Swindon and Wiltshire FEMAs Source: Hardisty Jones Associates, Swindon and Wiltshire Functional Economic Market Area Assessment 2016 Commercial property and employment land analysis also reflects FEMAs 1.30 The Employment Land Reviews are an important component to FEMA analysis, providing insight into commercial property markets and the spatial distribution of industrial and office space in the three FEMAs: Swindon/M4 Corridor FEMA The analysis for this FEMA draws from both the Swindon and Wiltshire ELRs: Within the Swindon Unitary Authority, historically, commercial development and land allocation in Swindon has predominantly been focused in urban areas, with development expanding outwards in some cases. This includes areas such as Highworth and Wroughton, for example. Within Swindon town centre, development has generally been concentrated in a few areas. This includes locations that are well connected to the M4 and A419, making them attractive development sites. Westmead, South Marston Industrial Estate, Kembrey Park, Blagrove, Dorcan, Stratton St Margaret, Bridgemead and Techno Trading Estate have all been successful in this regard. Outside of Swindon there is a focus of development in Royal Wootton Bassett, and Marlborough. Most of the available property is at Lydiard Fields Business Park or at Interface Business Centre. Office stock in Swindon is typically found in the town centre, with some larger premises located in the fringe of the centre within 12

15 business parks, and industrial property in inner urban areas, with the newer spaces locating on the edge of the town centre. A350 Corridor and West/Central Wiltshire Town FEMA Development is much more widespread along the A350 corridor, which possesses the largest concentration of industrial property, and also the most buoyant property market in terms of transactions and availability. Industrial property as well as industrial parks can be found along the corridor s towns and cities. However, office space is more concentrated in Chippenham. Salisbury/Amesbury/A303 Corridor FEMA Amesbury and Salisbury, in tandem with the A303 FEMA, are the core areas for development for both industrial and office space. For the former, industrial estates and business parks containing available industrial space are centred in and around the city of Salisbury and Amesbury. Regarding the latter, almost all available office stock resides entirely in Salisbury with some pockets of office space in Amesbury. Supply chain analysis further illustrates the importance of external trade 1.31 It is also helpful to consider supply chain linkages of important sectors in SWLEP to consider the movement of goods and trade. This analysis provides insight into how embedded sectors are within the SWLEP area, and highlights areas of dependency on external supply chains. Input-Output Analysis Outline Method 9. Input-output analysis is a form of economic assessment which looks at the interdependencies between economic sectors. The model contains large tables of data that outline inter-industry transactions and help to track the flow of money from one industry through to its supply chain. The ONS publishes input-output tables to help assess the effect of economic interdependencies in relation to economic shocks and major investments. This includes estimates of industry inputs and outputs, product supply and demand and Gross Value Added (GVA) for the United Kingdom. Embeddedness was calculated by studying the input-output interdependences between different sectors, to understand linkages, within differing supply chains. 9 Note that supply chain analysis relies upon regionalised input output table assumptions. Results presented here are proxied against South West input output assumptions, so should be treated with a degree of caution and be observed in the context of localised knowledge of supply chain relationships 13

16 Table 1.3 Supply Chain Analysis Priority/Watch List Sectors in a South West Context Number of Businesses % share all businesses Embeddedness within SWLEP UK Supply Chain Spend (excl. SWLEP) Supply Chain Spend outside of the UK Advanced Manufacturing % 8% 68% 24% Agri-Tech 80 13% 8% 79% 13% Creative Industries 3,235 16% 15% 77% 8% Energy 1,465 20% 10% 80% 10% Envirotech % 13% 76% 11% Food and Drink % 10% 75% 15% Health and Social Care % 11% 74% 15% ICT/Telecoms % 13% 74% 12% Knowledge Sector 10,845 16% 12% 77% 10% Lifesciences % 12% 78% 10% Professional Business Services 8,170 15% 13% 81% 6% Tourism 2,995 11% 11% 79% 10% Source: Regeneris Consulting, 2018; and ONS, UK Business Count Looking at the supply chain dependencies of SWLEP s priority and watch list sectors in a South West context, the relative degree of embeddedness of leading sectors can be inferred. Sectors with the greatest amount of supply chain expenditure retained within Swindon and Wiltshire are Creative Industries (14.7%), ICT/Telecommunications (13.2%) and Envirotech (12.8%) The sectors with the lowest levels of embeddedness include Advanced Manufacturing (8.0%), Agri-Tech (8.2%), and Food and Drink (9.6%). Whilst dependences on overseas imports vary between SWLEP s priority and watch list sectors with spend varying from 6% in the Professional Business Services to 24% in advanced manufacturing. 2.2 Housing Markets Housing market areas illustrate SWLEP s economic interconnections 1.33 Housing Need Assessments take into account house prices, short-term movements, and commuting patterns. The Strategic Housing Market Assessments for Swindon and Wiltshire identifies the need for housing in local planning authority areas, taking into account projections of demographic change, economic growth expectations, and the influence of housing policy As a result of the above analysis SHMA define four best fit Housing Market Areas (HMAs) as portrayed in the figure below. Currently, Swindon and Wiltshire are working together on a Joint Spatial Framework (JSF) which will inform the Local Plan 14

17 Review for both authorities, adding consistency also in terms of using the LEA evidence and delivering the objectives of the LEP in planning terms. Consultation on the JSF took place in late 2017 and further consultation is planned for autumn An analysis of performance to date on housing completions and starts is detailed in the Sustainable Economic Growth chapter. Figure 1.13 Swindon and Wiltshire s Best fit Functional Housing Market Areas Source: Opinion Research Services, Swindon and Wiltshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment

18 2. Conclusions and Policy Implications 1.36 The Swindon and Wiltshire economy is embedded within a wider regional, national and global context. This context will determine the area s resilience to change and susceptibility to shocks, its potential for inclusive growth, and its ability to support the development of sustainable communities The SWLEP area is made up of three individual FEMAs. The three FEMAs are considered to be the most robust and appropriate way to understand the economic geography of Swindon and Wiltshire. They should be used to inform spatial planning and economic development interventions aimed at accommodating future growth. The three designated Growth Zones align with the FEMAs and are considered to have the greatest capacity for supporting sustainable growth in the future. The Growth Zones provide a strong platform to communicate and promote Swindon and Wiltshire s key growth locations Commuter patterns demonstrate the SWLEP area s interrelationship with neighbouring economic centres such as Bath, Bristol and the wider M4 corridor. This flow of labour is likely to have evolved since the 2011 Census as a result of infrastructure improvements such as the Great Western Rail electrification that may not be reflected in official statistics. Obtaining access to open data sources on rail travel and ticketing could enhance this understanding The importance of connectivity both within and between urban areas as a mechanism for securing growth is acknowledged as facilitating agglomeration benefits. The more recent Industrial Strategy White Paper identifies the need for government support to enhance connections across regional corridors of economic growth. Amongst other enhancements, connectivity improvements have the potential to expand labour market catchments and support the competitiveness of the business base by ensuring they have access to the skills needed. Given the extent of interconnectedness with neighbouring local authorities and markets and labour flows, SWLEP has an important role to play in delivering transport improvements which reduce congestion, costs and travel times. This includes supporting network managers and operators in the delivery of transport improvements by providing necessary funding and informing prioritisation Input-output table analysis of supply chains for important sectors, provides an insight to the extent to which these sectors are embedded in the SWLEP area. This shows that there are no standout sectors which exhibit high levels of embeddedness within SWLEP Creative Industries (15%), Professional Business Services (13%), ICT/Telecoms (13%) and Envirotech (13%) rely most heavily on locally-based supply chain companies. Areas which SWLEP may seek to influence include working closely with DiT and local authority partners to strategically manage foreign-owned companies and those dependent on EU supply chains to embed them further in Swindon and Wiltshire by facilitating stronger links with local supply chains, thereby fostering new economic opportunities for local businesses SWLEP will need to work closely with DiT and industry representatives to explore trade and investment opportunities, and work in partnership with industry to develop sector strategies which support local supply chain 16

19 development amongst other interventions pertaining to their competitiveness (e.g. skills, innovation, physical infrastructure) At a more localised level, some economic geographies such as Growth Zones could be more exposed to the consequences of Brexit than others. This will be driven by the nature of the economy, the sectoral composition of the business base and labour market challenges. Each Growth Zone will therefore need a nuanced policy response. Evidence presented at the level of each Growth Zone, particularly sector composition and performance detailed in chapter 2, provides a useful reference point to inform policy-making The identified housing market areas provide an appropriate geography for meeting housing need. SWLEP has a key role in supporting the delivery of housing to support economic growth More generally, the provision of supporting infrastructure such as a quality education, retail, leisure and culture offer contribute to the reach and influence of Swindon and Wiltshire s economic geography. SWLEP has a part to play in facilitating investment in these areas. 17