Forecasting gas demand for heating in Belgium

Transcription

1 Delta Energy & Environment Ltd Registered in Scotland: No SC Registered Office: Floor F, Argyle House, 3 Lady Lawson Street, Edinburgh, EH3 9DR, UK Forecasting gas demand for heating in Belgium Interim results of Gas.be study, TAG 2018 Stephen Harkin, Delta-ee November Stephen.harkin@delta-ee.com

2 Today I will discuss Scope of the study for Gas.be Gas demand in Belgium today Drivers for change Outlook for gas demand to 2030 and 2050 Next steps for the Gas.be study 2

3 Delta-ee: Helping clients navigate the transformation of the energy system Advisory services to succeed in the transition from old energy to new energy. Old energy Centralised Carbon intensive Commodity sales Meter points Value is upstream New energy Distributed Low carbon Service-orientated Customer centric Value is downstream 3

4 Delta-ee: What Delta-ee offers to clients Research Services and Multi-Client Studies New Energy Business Model Service Alternative Business Models in the Energy Sector Heat Research Digital Research Distributed Generation & Flexibility Research Electric Vehicles & Electricity Heat Insight Service Electrification of Heat Service Gas Heating Service Connected Home Service Customer Data Value Advisory Service Flexibility Research Service Energy Storage Research Service Distributed Power Service Microgrids Multi-Client Study EVs & Electricity Research Service Smart Energy Customer Panel Knowledge Based Consulting Market analysis and forecasts Strategy Propositions and customer research Technology and product Policy & regulation Demand forecasts 4

5 Today I will discuss Scope of the study for Gas.be Gas demand in Belgium today Drivers for change Outlook for gas demand to 2030 and 2050 Next steps for the Gas.be study 5

6 Scope of project: Forecasting gas demand in Belgium to study DSO connected Residential heating Commercial heating Industrial process heat BRUSSELS FLANDERS WALLONIA ANNUAL PEAK Today

7 Today I will discuss Scope of the study for Gas.be Gas demand in Belgium today Drivers for change Outlook for gas demand to 2030 and 2050 Next steps for the Gas.be study 7

8 GWh GWh Gas demand in Belgium today 700 Total gas demand by region Jan Jun Dec Brussels Wallonia Flanders Residential & non-residential gas demand in Belgium Jun Jan Dec Residential Non-Residential Source: Fluxys,

9 Regional variations will drive different outlooks for gas demand FLANDERS BRUSSELS WALLONIA Multi family homes: 0.7 million dwellings 25% 33% Single family homes: 0.2 million dwellings Multi family homes: 0.3 million dwellings 19% 75% Single family homes: 2.2 million dwellings Multi family homes: 0.3 million dwellings 67% 81% Single family homes: 1.3 million dwellings Dwellings by main fuel type Dwellings by main fuel type Dwellings by main fuel type 61% 77% 39% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Natural Gas Fuel Oil Coal LPG Electricity Wood 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Natural Gas Fuel Oil Coal LPG Electricity Wood 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 39% Natural Gas Fuel Oil Coal LPG Electricity Wood Dwellings by age million 1,5 1 0,5 0 Pre Dwellings by age million 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Pre Dwellings by age million 1 0,5 0 Pre Mainly single family homes 60% on gas More modern dwellings Two thirds flats Three quarters on gas >70% very old Mainly single family homes Lowest share on gas (39%) >70% very old 9

10 Today I will discuss Scope of the study for Gas.be Gas demand in Belgium today Drivers for change Outlook for gas demand to 2030 and 2050 Next steps for the Gas.be study 10

11 Drivers of change Customer attitudes & awareness Technology costs Energy prices Technology performance Policy & regulations Manufacturer push Installer attitudes Housing stock Current heating market structure. 11

12 Drivers of change More efficient gas appliances Condensing gas boilers Gas driven heat pumps Micro-CHP / fuel cell Boiler plus options Better controls Energy efficiency Insulation New build regulations Electrification of heat Heat pumps (air source & ground source) Hybrid gas boiler with electric heat pump 12

13 % uptake Applying these drivers to our forecasting approach Summary of high level approach for forecasting the uptake of heating appliances in Belgium: Annual replacements in one segment Step 1: Scenario development & assumptions. 1 Step 2: Housing stock segmentation of the Belgian dwelling stock. 2 3 Step 3: Techno economic modelling of different heating appliances in different housing segments. Economics Physical fit Soft factors Step 4: Step 5: Calculate the market uptake % of each technology in each housing segment. Apply the final market uptake % for each appliance to the addressable market in each housing segment Customer awareness Installer attitude Customer appeal Market Push Customer familiarity/trust Government commitment 13

14 Today I will discuss Scope of the study for Gas.be Gas demand in Belgium today Drivers for change Outlook for gas demand to 2030 and 2050 Next steps for the Gas.be study 14

15 Outlook for Flanders FLANDERS Gas demand impact 2021; Gas grid extensions no longer allowed. HP tariff / carbon tax on gas introduced?? Oil / electric impact Other Renovation Pact coming into force. Electricity prices rise more strongly in light of nuclear phase out HP & low carbon gas appliance costs come down, and installer & customer acceptance grows. Gradual displacement of gas boilers Incentive for condensing gas boilers. Increasing premiums for HPs. Phase out noncondensing boilers Oil no longer allowed in new build Increasing push for low carbon gas appliances, as part of ambition to accelerate 'transition' system uptake Energy Pact: oil boiler replacement ban. Insulation improvements driving down thermal demand of housing stock Energy Pact: all new builds no longer allowed to connect to gas. Share of gas appliances decreases strongly in favour of HPs, but they still make up more than 50% 15

16 Installed base of heating appliances Appliance mix to 2030 in Flanders provisional results Evolution of the installed base of heating applainces in Flanders Appliance type 2018 forecast Volume in 2030 Share of installed base Gas 2,031,000 61% Oil 815,000 24% Share of gas appliances remains similar to 2030 Electric 461,000 14% Other 48,000 1% Gas appliances Oil appliances Electric appliances Other 16

17 Installed base of heating appliances What happens to the appliance mix to 2050? - provisional results Evolution of the installed base of heating applainces in Flanders Electric appliances (mainly ASHP) increase to ~1.4 M Oil appliances almost disappear Gas appliances ~1.75 M by Gas appliances Oil appliances Electric appliances Other Forecast extended in the 2018 study 17

18 Installed base of heating appliances What happens to gas appliances to provisional results Evolution of the installed base of GAS heating applainces in Flanders 2018 forecast Small amount of low carbon gas by 2030 Appliance type Noncondensing Volume in 2030 Share of gas appliances 28,000 1% Condensing 1,756,000 87% Non-condensing almost disappears by 2030 Low carbon gas 248,000 12% Gas boilers - low efficiency Gas boilers - high efficiency Lower carbon gas appliances 18

19 Installed base of heating appliances What happens to gas appliances to provisional results Evolution of the installed base of GAS heating applainces in Flanders ~945,000 low carbon gas appliances by ~820,000 condensing gas boilers by Gas boilers - low efficiency Gas boilers - high efficiency Lower carbon gas appliances Forecast extended in the 2018 study 19

20 Installed base of heating appliances What happens to gas appliances to provisional results Evolution of the installed base of GAS heating applainces in Flanders Micro CHP / fuel cells Gas heat pumps Hybrid heat pumps Condensing gas boilers - Gas boilers - low efficiency Gas boilers - high efficiency Gas boiler 'plus' Hybrid heat pump gas boiler Gas heat pump Micro-CHP & fuel cells 20

21 Annual gas demand (GWh) Annual gas demand to 2030 in Flanders - provisional results Annual gas demand in Flanders to 2030 by appliance type ~19% reduction by Condensing gas boilers Other Micro-CHP & fuel cells Gas heat pump Hybrid heat pump gas boiler Gas boiler 'plus' Gas boiler high efficiency Gas boiler low efficiency

22 Annual gas demand (GWh) Annual gas demand to 2050 in Flanders - provisional results Annual gas demand in Flanders to 2050 by appliance type Lower carbon gas appliances Condensing gas boilers ~30% reduction by 2050 Other Micro-CHP & fuel cells Gas heat pump Hybrid heat pump gas boiler Gas boiler 'plus' Gas boiler high efficiency Gas boiler low efficiency - 22

23 Next steps: Repeat forecasting for Brussels and Wallonia 23

24 Next steps: Commercial and industrial analysis Commercial heating Retail Education Private offices Public offices Hospitals Healthcare Hospitality Industrial process heat Chemicals Mineral products Basic metals Food and drink Car manufacturing Agriculture Paper and pulp Cement Glass 24

25 Questions? Contact: 25