Bernardo Aliaga. Ken Gledhill. Laura Kong. Programme Specialist Tsunami Unit UNESCO/IOC ICG/CARIBE EWS Technical Secretary

Transcription

1 UNESCO IOC CTIC US NOAA ITIC Regional Training Workshop on Strengthening Tsunami Warning and Emergency Response Standard Operating Procedures and the Development of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS PTWC New Enhanced Products 4-8 November 2013, La Romana, Dominican Republic Public Coastal Evacuation: alerting and moving people, Inundation modeling and maps, Evacuation routes and signage, safe return evacuation planning: Role and value of Tsunami inundation modelling Bernardo Aliaga Programme Specialist Tsunami Unit UNESCO/IOC ICG/CARIBE EWS Technical Secretary Ken Gledhill GeoNet Project Director - Chair, Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System GNS Science, New Zealand Laura Kong Director, UNESCO/IOC NOAA ITIC

2 The starting point is to have inundation maps Evacuation zone boundaries can be determined using a variety of hazard models. Zones ideally need to represent an envelope around all possible inundations from all known tsunami sources. The high degree of uncertainty in tsunami source models, and the very time consuming and resource intensive nature of modeling make this comprehensive approach to tsunami risk assessment unlikely in many countries. The recommended approach to developing tsunami evacuation zones is to map now, and progressively refine the accuracy of boundaries as capacity improves over time. Credible scenarios Expected Arrival Time Worst case/probabilistic approach Level one: thumb estimate -> Yamaguchi Level two: Pre-defined sources, web platforms -> ComMIT Level three: finite differences models -> MOST, COMCOT, NEOWAVE, others

3 Tsunami Modeling Why? Historical tsunamis allow scientists to understand how tsunamis behave Tsunamis are high impact, but infrequent Therefore, modeling scenarios essential Simulate: When and how tsunami will hit coast? Where highest? How far floods inland? Where strong currents are? Science Result: Inundation map - credible scenarios Public Safety Result: Evacuation maps - community

4 Modeling of Near-field Tsunami Wave Resonance Studies provide information on near-shore interactions Depends on near-shore morphology coastline shapes (island, shelf, bays ), water depth Gives details on Prolonged wave activity (extended time of dangerous waves) height amplification (due to summation of waves at different periods)

5 The 2010 Maule Earthquake Tsunami Resonance Study for Near-field Tsunami

6 The 2010 Maule Earthquake Tsunami Resonance Study for Near-fleld Tsunami

7 1946 Alaska Tsunami at Hawaii Propagation, Near-Shore Interactions, Inundation Hawaii Kwok Fai Cheung, Univ. of Hawaii Maui County Kahalui, Maui

8 1946 Alaska Tsunami at Hawaii Illustration of Regional Resonance Resonance min Bathymetry Kwok Fai Cheung, Univ. of Hawa

9 1946 Alaska Tsunami at Kahalui, Maui, Hawaii Wave Transformation over Reefs and Inundation Kwok Fai Cheung, Univ. of Hawaii

10 Inundation Modeling for Evacuation Planning (Using Science for Public Safety) 1. Identify scenarios historical, possible, credible, considered 2. Model scenarios 3. Combine results envelope of all solutions 4. Inundation Map (all scenarios) 5. Evacuation Map (DMO community input)

11 Modeling to Evacuation Map Max Inundation + Currents Evacuation map Long Beach, Washington (NOAA, WA EMD)

12 Tsunami Evacuation Plan (next 20 slides are taken from Asian Disaster Reduction Center-ADRC) Inundation Area Tsunami Arrival Time Town Watching Local Gov. Shelter & Evacuation Route Evacuation Map Community Evacuation Drill

13 Government Community Workshop & Town Watching

14 Workshop & Town Watching 1 st Workshop Study about Tsunami Town Watching Find out the Dangerous Points in the Community 2 nd Workshop Make the Evacuation Map 3 rd Workshop Find out the Future Tasks

15 1 st Workshop - What is Tsunami? - Where is inundation area? - How long will it take after the Earthquake?

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17 Town Watching Let s find out the Dangerous & Safe Points in the Community

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22 2 nd Workshop Let s make a map. - Where we should evacuate? - Which road is good as the evacuation route?

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24 3 rd Workshop - We should improve the evacuate route for children and elderly people. - We should put the sign for the shelter.

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27 Evacuation Map Sample

28 Evacuation Plan For Each Area

29 Evacuation PLAN Evacuation DRILL

30 Check an evacuation route Evacuation Drill A drill for revival

31 TR-RaMm Tsunami Risk - Rapid appraisal Mapping method

32 Photo Google Earth CENTRE NATIONAL DE L INFORMATION GEO-SPATIALE» (C.N.I.G.S)

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35 First job Draw contours (black marker), put names and all details to identify the area Draw floodable area(blue area) Draw evacuation area (red marker) Estimate and write total population to be evacuated, provide demographic details(black marker) Identify Operations Center (blue sticker) Identify critical facilities, vulnerable population spots, hazardous materials storage areas (hospitals, schools, gas stations, pipelines, bridges, raceways) (red stickers), number them and describe these in writing

36 How that looks like?

37 Second job Draw contours (black marker) Define and decide on evacuation routes (green marker ) Define meeting points and shelters(green marker and blue or green sticker) Define capacity of shelters with demographic details ( men, women, childs, handicap, elders) Use Sphera to calculate needs for 48 horas usar Manual ESFERA Define signage (red and green stickers) : Green stickers=evacuation route signs, estimate time and distance to closer shelter Red sticker= floodable area, can include max high recorded (historic) or estimated

38 How that looks like?

39 Use simple color codes to restitute information Red Zone: The red zone is intended as a shore-exclusion zone that can be designated off limits in the event of any expected tsunami. This represents the highest risk zone and is the first place people should evacuate from in any sort of tsunami warning. People could expect activation of this zone several times during their life. Orange Zone: The orange zone is intended to be the area evacuated in most if not all distant- and regional-source official warnings where sufficient information is available to assess the 2 threat and the threat is assessed to extend beyond the red zone but below the yellow zone. Local differentiation of this zone can be achieved using terms that are familiar to the community such as street names and key landmarks. Activating the orange zone will prevent over-evacuation in most events. Yellow Zone: The yellow zone should cover all maximum credible tsunami, including the highest impact events. The intention is that the yellow zone provides for all source maximum credible events, based on locally determined risk. People should evacuate this zone in natural or informal warnings from a local source (i.e. in the absence of or before official warnings are issued).

40 Examples/good-not good practices

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42 Evacuation signs Decide on sign locations as part of the evacuation mapping process It is difficult to locate signs without first laying out the evacuation zones and routes on the map Five prioritised categories of sign in the MCDEM Technical Standard: Tsunami Signage as follows:

43 Priority 1 - Evacuation zone Placed within zones to indicate a person should evacuate this zone in a warning. Contain natural warning sign information. zone boundaries can be moved as hazard understanding improves, implicit required action TSUNAMI EVACUATION ZONE TSUNAMI EVACUATION ZONE ORANGE In case of strong earthquake shaking, unusual ocean behaviour or noise, move to high ground and/or inland following evacuation routes where present Wait for official all-clear COUNCIL LOGO In case of strong earthquake shaking, unusual ocean behaviour or noise, move to high ground and/or inland following evacuation routes where present Wait for official all-clear COUNCIL LOGO

44 Priority 2 Information Boards Board including evacuation map Map as board

45 Priority 3 - Evacuation route (generic) (add white adhesive arrow) TSUNAMI EVACUATION ROUTE

46 Priority 3 Evacuation route (in place) TSUNAMI EVACUATION ROUTE Tsunami Safe Zone above third floor After earthquake or warning move above third floor

47 Priority 3 Evacuation route (vehicle, foot) TSUNAMI EVACUATION ROUTE TSUNAMI EVACUATION ROUTE

48 Priority 4 Safe location TSUNAMI SAFE LOCATION Wait for official all clear

49 Priority 5 - Previous event (must be a maximum event) ELEVATION REACHED IN 2008 CHILE TSUNAMI

50 Evacuation Zone Planning Documents

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52 Consistent Messages

53 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. UNESCO IOC CTIC US NOAA ITIC Regional Training Workshop on Strengthening Tsunami Warning and Emergency Response Standard Operating Procedures and the Development of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS PTWC New Enhanced Products 4-8 November 2013, La Romana, Dominican Republic