TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Retail Demand Study Alcona Settlement Area. Town of Innisfil, Ontario

Transcription

1 Retail Demand Study Alcona Settlement Area Town of Innisfil, Ontario Prepared for: Town of Innisfil, Department of Planning Services June 2011 APPENDICES TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC..

2 Town of Innisfil Retail Demand Study, Alcona Settlement Area Appendix A Inventory of Competitive Commercial Space An inventory of all retail, service and vacant retail space was undertaken by TER in the Study Area in September Tables A-1, A-2 and the map provided, summarize the distribution of retail, service and vacant retail space by node and store type. In addition, photographs of various types of commercial space operating in Innisfil have also been provided. A-1

3 EXISTING RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE CONCENTRATIONS IN INNISFIL th Line 1b 1a 5 Belle Aire Beach Road Alcona & Vicinity 1a. Core Commercial Area 1b. Neighbourhood Commercial Area 1c. Neighbourhood Commercial Special Area 2. Stroud 3. Other Innisfil North (incl. Sandy Cove) 4. Lefroy 5. Innisfil Heights 6. Cookstown 7. Cookstown Outlet Mall 8. Other Innisfil South & West

4 TABLE A-1 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON SUMMARY OF RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE IN THE ALCONA SETTLEMENT AREA (1 Alcona Core Commercial Area (2 Neighbourhood Commercial Area (3 Neighbourhood Commercial Special (4 Other Alcona Alcona & Vicinity (5 Percent Distribution Food Oriented Retail (FOR) Supermarkets - 43,800 37,000-80, % Convenience & Specialty Food Stores 6, , % Sub-Total Food Oriented Retail (FOR) 6,000 43,800 37,000-86, % Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) Department Stores % General Merchandise 7, , % Clothing, Shoes & Accessories % Furniture, Home Furnishings & Electronics % Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores 13, , % Building & Outdoor Home Supplies 13, ,300 14, % Miscellaneous Retailers (6 3, , % Sub-Total Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) 37, ,000 39, % Other Retail & Service Space Liquor, Beer & Wine 6, , % Food Services 30, ,100 35, % Personal Services 5, , % Financial & Real Estate Services 13,500 5, , % Other Services 25, ,200 27, % Sub-Total Other Retail & Service Space 81,200 5,200-8,000 94, % Total Occupied Retail & Service Space 125,000 49,000 37,000 10, , % Vacant 2,000 2, % Vacancy Rate (%) 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Total Retail & Service Space 127,000 49,000 37,000 10, , % Percent Distribution 57.0% 22.0% 16.6% 4.5% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) Based on inventory and site inspections completed by TER in August/September 2010 comprising of Core Commercial Area, Neighbourhood Commercial Area, Neighbourhood Commercial Special Area and Other Alcona. Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet. 2) Inventory excludes 2,800 sq. ft. new 241 Pizza and office space. 3) Inventory excludes 17,800 sq. ft. Shoppers Drug Mart recently opened in Fall ) Inventory excludes 32,100 sq. ft. of new space operating at Trinity Crossing as well as phase 2 consisting of a new Canadian Tire, and other ancillary uses are anticipated in ) At the time of this inventory, TER identified 83 businesses operating in the Alcona & Vicinity area. 6) For the purpose of this study, Automotive retail has been summarized under the Miscellaneous Retailers category.

5 TABLE A-2 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON SUMMARY OF RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE IN INNISFIL (1 Alcona & Vicinity Stroud Other Innisfil North (2 Lefroy Innisfil Heights Cookstown Cookstown Outlet Mall Other Innisfil South & West Subtotal Other Innisfil TOTAL INNISFIL Percent Distribution Food Oriented Retail (FOR) Supermarkets 80,900 16, , , , % Convenience & Specialty Food Stores 6,000 5,800 5,900 10,600-5,400 1,800 4,100 33,600 39, % Sub-Total Food Oriented Retail (FOR) 86,900 22,700 5,900 10,600-15,600 1,800 4,100 60, , % Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) Department Stores % General Merchandise 7, , % Clothing, Shoes & Accessories ,300 1, ,800 1, , , % Furniture, Home Furnishings & Electronics ,300-29,100 1,200 62,600 62, % Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores 13,100 9, ,100 1,600-15,900 29, % Building & Outdoor Home Supplies 14,900 5,100 1,500-10,500 28, ,500 60,000 74, % Miscellaneous Retailers 4,100 6,400 2,000 1,700 61,600 17, , , , % Sub-Total Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) 39,800 21,000 5,000 1, ,700 52, ,800 29, , , % Other Retail & Service Space Liquor, Beer & Wine 6,700 3, , ,100 12, % Food Services 35,500 10,900 2,900 5,800 2,700 20,200 2,800 20,900 66, , % Personal Services 5,900 6, , ,900 18, % Financial & Real Estate Services 18,700 21,900 1,600 1,100-6, ,600 49, % Other Services 27,600 39,600 5,200 3,200-20,400 1,400 10,900 80, , % Sub-Total Other Retail & Service Space 94,400 82,700 10,600 10,700 2,700 53,400 4,200 32, , , % Total Occupied Retail & Service Space 221, ,400 21,500 23, , , ,800 66, , , % Vacant 2,000 16,100 10, ,200 14,400 2,200 54,200 56, % Vacancy Rate (%) 0.9% 11.3% 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 8.8% 3.2% 20.4% 6.3% Total Retail & Service Space 223, ,500 31,800 23, , , ,200 68, , , % Percent Distribution 24.7% 15.8% 3.5% 2.5% 13.1% 14.7% 18.2% 7.5% 75.3% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) Based on inventory and site inspections completed by TER in September Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet. 2) Sandy Cove Mall represents approximately 42.5% of the space located in the Other Innisfil North area. 3) For the purpose of this study, Automotive retail has been summarized under the Miscellaneous Retailers category.

6 Innisfil Strip Plaza Retail Uses Alcona CCA Alcona CCA

7 Innisfil Strip Plaza Retail Uses Village Market - Stroud Innisfil Shopping Plaza - Stroud

8 Innisfil Strip Plaza Retail Uses Foodland Anchored Plaza - Cookstown Heritage Plaza - Cookstown

9 Innisfil Strip Plaza Retail Uses Stroud Plaza - Stroud Sandy Cove Mall Sandy Cove

10 Enclosed Shopping Centre Cookstown Outlet Mall Cookstown Outlet Mall - Today Cookstown Outlet Mall Proposed Expansion Concept

11 Major Retailers Occupying Free Standing Units no frills Alcona & Vicinity Home Hardware Alcona CCA

12 Major Retailers Occupying Free Standing Units Sobeys Alcona & Vicinity Home Hardware - Cookstown

13 Retail Uses In Converted Residential Dwellings Alcona CCA Alcona CCA

14 Retail Uses In Converted Residential Dwellings Lefroy CCA Innisfil Beach Road Other Innisfil

15 Retail Uses In Industrial / Highway Commercial Space Innisfil Heights Innisfil Heights

16 Alcona CCA Retenanting & Infill Development Opportunities Vacant Shoppers Drug Mart Alcona CCA New Pizza with 2 nd storey office Alcona CCA

17 New Development In Alcona & Vicinity Trinity Crossing Alcona & Vicinity New Shoppers Drug Mart Alcona & Vicinity

18 Town of Innisfil Retail Demand Study, Alcona Settlement Area Appendix B ICSC Shopping Centre Definitions The following section provides a summary of the International Council of Shopping Centres general parameters distinguishing various shopping centre formats operating in Canada. B-1

19 December 2010 CANADIAN RETAIL REAL ESTATE STANDARD A Framework for Shopping Centre and Other Retail Format Definitions This standard was created with the help of a panel of industry experts. ICSC would like to particularly acknowledge the following individuals for their contribution: (1) Marco Biasiotto, Director, Research, Primaris Retail Real Estate Investment Trust; (2) Robert Boyle, Director, Market Research, Ivanhoe Cambridge; (3) Dr. Tony Hernandez, Director, Centre for the Study of Commercial Activity, Ryerson University; and (4) Susan Williams, Director National Research and Marketing, The Cadillac Fairview Corporation Limited. Basic Shopping Centre Definition As a working definition, this document defines a Canadian shopping centre as a retail property that is planned, built, owned and managed as a single entity, comprising commercial rental units (CRU) and common areas, with a minimum size of 10,000 square feet (Gross Leasable Area or GLA) and a minimum of three CRUs. 1 On-site parking is also generally provided. A shopping area that comprises an agglomeration of retail units resulting from separate and unrelated actions from different developers does not constitute a shopping centre as it is not planned, owned and managed as a single entity. Similarly and despite a definite regional attraction and character, a cluster or supercluster of shopping centres or trading areas/centres should not be seen as one shopping centre type, unless they are planned, owned and managed as a single property. This is also true for a power node, which can be an unplanned cluster of large format retailers and/or shopping centres. 2 Summary The following definitions are meant to be guidelines for understanding major differences between the types of shopping centres and other retail real estate types. A summary is provided on page 6 of this document and a list of examples for each shopping centre type on page 8. 3 There are ten principal shopping centre types, which can be grouped into four categories traditional, specialty, hybrid and mixed-use. They are defined by various characteristics or attributes such as size, number of anchors, dominant use or concept (merchandise orientation types of goods/services sold and site configuration) and trade area, which should be interpreted as typical for each centre type. They are not meant to encompass the operating characteristics of every centre. As a general rule, the main determinants in classifying a centre are its concept and its size. Mixed-used developments that have an important retail component are also included as shopping centres. Although they are not exclusively retail oriented, retail mixed-use projects are shopping 1 A shopping centre may not have been originally developed as such but could have been converted to this use afterwards. A shopping centre can also be jointly-owned and managed. 2 Examples of power nodes: Highways 7 & 400, Vaughan, Ontario or Sunridge area, Calgary, Alberta. 3 ICSC also consulted the following resource when preparing this document: Altus Derbyshire, 2007 Assessment Review Board, Retail Property: Non Recoverables and Capitalization Rate Analysis Enclosed Shopping Centres, Etobicoke, Ontario, pp

20 centres as their retail component comprise important shopping centre characteristics. Freestanding stores (single and multi-stores) complete the retail real estate spectrum as presented in the summary table. Note: There may be shopping centres that are sufficiently unusual as to preclude them from fitting into one of the broad-based definitions presented below. New categories may arise in the future as the industry continues to evolve. I. SHOPPING CENTRES I-A Traditional Shopping Centres A traditional centre is an all-purpose centre that could be either open-air or enclosed/covered. There are five types of traditional centres: 1) Convenience Centre: Open-air centre 4 between 10,000 and 39,999 square feet (GLA) in which tenants provide a narrow mix of goods and personal services to a very limited trade area, including walk-in traffic. A typical anchor would be a convenience store such as 7-Eleven, Mac s Convenience, Couche-Tard or other mini-mart. The configuration is linear in most cases or can have a L or U shape, with an attached row of stores or service outlets owned and managed as a coherent retail unit and with on-site parking usually in front of the stores. Open canopies may connect the store fronts, but a convenience centre does not have enclosed walkways linking the stores. The primary trade area or the area from which 60-80% of the centre s sales originate is generally up to two kilometers. This type of development is generally single title ownership. There may or may not be professional management for this type of centre and the management is often a local business operator. 2) Neighbourhood Centre: Open-air centre between 40,000 and 99,999 square feet (GLA) that is designed to provide convenience shopping for the daily needs of consumers in the immediate neighbourhood. It is typically anchored by a supermarket. In recent years, however, neighborhood centres may have a large drugstore anchor or discount store for anchor. These anchors are supported by a cluster of attached stores offering drugs, sundries, fast food and personal services. A neighbourhood centre is usually configured as a straight-line strip with adequate off-street parking at the front. (Other common configurations include L or U shape.) The configuration usually does not include enclosed walkways linking the stores and common or mall areas. Centres may have a canopy or other façade treatment to provide shade and protection from inclement weather, or to tie the centre together. The primary trade area is generally up to five kilometers. This type of development is often single title ownership although there are some real estate limited partnerships that provide individual investors an opportunity to participate in ownership through equity shares. There may or may not be professional management for this type of centre and the management may be a local or regional/national business operator. 3) Community Centre: Community-serving centres between 100,000 and 400,000 square feet (GLA, including outparcels) that also typically offer products and services focused on daily shopping needs but offering a wider range of soft goods and services than the smaller neighbourhood centre. Community centres are basically a cluster of attached retail units that can be open-air and/or enclosed with significant off-street paved parking surrounding the building that can be accessed in most cases from two or more sides. They could be outdoor developments with walkways or enclosed developments with connecting corridors. They could also have outparcels such a gas station, restaurant or larger-format retailers. Among the more common anchors are convenience-based tenants, such as supermarkets and super drugstores, or more 4 Historically, the open-air configuration has been referred to as a strip centre, with the name originating from the linear form where stores sit side-by-side in a narrow row of stores. 2

21 general merchandise-oriented tenants such as discount department stores. Community centre tenants sometimes include stores value-oriented big-box category-dominant retailers selling such items as apparel, home improvement/furnishings, toys, electronics or sporting goods. The centre is usually configured in a straight line as a neighborhood centre, or may be laid out in an L, U or Z shape, depending on the site and design. The primary trade area is generally five to eight kilometers. This type of development is also generally single title ownership although, as for neighborhood centres, there are some real estate limited partnerships that provided individual investors an opportunity to participate in ownership through equity shares. Most community centres are professionally managed. There are also a limited number of enclosed community centres that typically include smaller-sized condominium style -owned retail units that generally cater to a specific demographic segment (e.g. ethnic-themed centres). 4) Regional Mall: This comparison-based centre includes retailers usually selling fashion apparel, accessories and shoes, home furnishings, electronics, general merchandise, toys, gifts and other discretionary goods but that also provide services in full depth and variety. Its GLA varies between 300,000 and 799,999 square feet. Its main attraction is generally the combination of anchors generally two and sometimes three, which may be traditional department stores occupying in most cases a minimum of 70,000 square feet, possibly large-format discount stores and/or mini-anchors or big-box specialty retailers occupying between 15,000 and 40,000 square feet. A regional centre is usually enclosed with an inward orientation of the stores connected by common areas/walkways or malls, flanked on one or both sides by various entrances. It could be multi-leveled with escalators, stairs and elevators between levels. Off-street paved parking surrounds the outside perimeter. It may be surface or structured and there may be outparcels or pad store locations. A regional mall could be located in downtown areas of major metropolitan markets and be called a downtown regional mall. The primary trade area is eight to twenty kilometers. This type of development is generally managed as one single entity, but may involve multiple owners. Ownership is typically held by large investment groups, pension funds, real estate trusts or similar entity. The property is professionally managed usually by a national company. 5) Super-Regional Mall: Centre similar to a regional mall, but larger in size (GLA over 800,000 square feet), and with a more extensive offering of anchors and/or destination retailers. Superregional malls often include a deeper breadth and depth of stores and merchandise, a larger food court and greater offering of food stores and service uses. It may also offer a more comprehensive mix of entertainment activities and dining options. As for regional malls, there could be three or more anchors, including mini-anchors. As with regional malls, the usual configuration is an enclosed mall, frequently with multiple-levels, with an inward orientation of the stores (and sometimes outward looking as well) connected by common areas/walkways or malls, flanked on one or both sides by various entrances. It could be multi-leveled with escalators, stairs and elevators between levels. There may be also outparcels such as for auto service, theaters, restaurants and big box. In addition to ground parking, parking may also be structured/decked or even underground to accommodate the sheer size and volume of traffic to the centre with access provided at several locations. Super-regional malls are often situated on mass transit lines (e.g. subway, LRT, bus) and along major highway corridors. The primary trade area is ten to thirty kilometers and encompasses an extensive population base. This type of development is generally managed as one single entity but may involve multiple owners. Ownership is held by large investment groups, pension funds, real estate trusts or similar entity. The property is professionally managed usually by a national company. 3

22 I-B Specialty Shopping Centres Specialty centres include specific purpose-built retail centres that are typically open-air and, occasionally, fully or partly covered. They include the following three types: 1) Power Centre: Open-air centre currently (or potentially planned to be) between 100,000 and 1,000,000 square feet (GLA) 5 that often comprises three or more large-format retailers ( big boxes or category-dominant anchors ) that are mostly freestanding (unconnected) or sometimes part of a number of scattered multi-tenant one-level buildings on the same property to offer maximum visibility to most retail units. The minimum size for a commercial unit to be considered large format varies widely from one store category to another. 6 These anchors may consist of discount department stores, hypermarkets, furniture and home furnishings stores, home improvement and hardware stores, electronics and hardware stores, cinemas, office supplies stores, warehouse clubs, off-price stores or other category killers, i.e., stores that offer a vast selection in related merchandise categories at very competitive retail prices. Additionally, the centre may have only a minimum number of small specialty tenants mostly in the scattered multi-tenant buildings on the site. As with other open-air centres, ample on-site paved parking is located in front of the stores and around the site at the ground level. The large land element provides for an interior road network that connects all the individual sites and allows the customers to drive from storefront to storefront. The primary trade area is eight to twenty kilometers. This type of development can be single title or multi-titled ownership with one or several owners. Ownership is generally held by large investment groups, pension funds, real estate trusts or similar entity. The property is most often professionally managed by a national company, however some of the independent multi-tenant buildings may provide their own property management. 2) Factory Outlet Centre: This specific purpose-built centre type consists of separate manufacturers and retailers outlet stores selling their brand-name goods at discounted prices, typically selling surplus stock, prior-season or slow selling merchandise and especially designed merchandise. These centres are generally not anchored, although certain brand-name stores may serve as magnet tenants. Outlet centres are can be either open-air or enclosed and are between 50,000 to 400,000 square feet (GLA) in most cases. The primary trade area is twenty to fifty kilometers. 3) Lifestyle Centre: Most often located near affluent residential neighborhoods, this centre type caters to the retail needs and lifestyle pursuits of consumers in its trading area. It has an openair configuration and typically includes at least 50,000 square feet of retail space (GLA) occupied by chain specialty stores. (The whole centre may range from 150,000 to 500,000 square feet.) Other elements differentiate the lifestyle centre role as a multi-purpose leisure-time destination, including restaurants, specialty food stores, entertainment, and design ambience and amenities such as fountains and street furniture that are conducive to casual browsing. It may be anchored by a large-format specialty store, a smaller version of a big box store and/or entertainment venues such as cinemas. The primary trade area is ten to twenty kilometers. I-C Shopping Centre Hybrid A retail hybrid centre significantly combines predominant elements from two or more distinct traditional and/or specialty shopping centre types, e.g. power centre, regional mall and lifestyle centres, with a minimum GLA of 250,000 square feet. Its primary trade area can vary widely, depending on the composition of the project. 5 A limited number of power centres in Canada (<20) are smaller at between 50,000 and 100,000 square feet. 6 The Centre for the Study of Commercial Activity in Canada has identified over 40 minimum sizes for different retail categories, ranging from 8,000 square feet for fashion retailers to 50,000 square feet for home improvement stores to 90,000 for department stores. As a result, there could be power centres smaller than 200,000 square feet depending on the size of their large-format retailers. However, the other criteria listed above must also be met. 4

23 I-D Retail Mixed-Use Development Projects developed as a single unit where its retail component is predominant and accounts for one of at least two significant revenue-producing uses. The retail space should offer more than site-serving convenience facilities, have a minimum GLA of 50,000 square feet and three commercial retail units or CRUs. The non-retail uses could be residential, office, hotel, transportation (airport, train or bus stations where there is a consolidation of retail units on the premises) entertainment, recreation, sport, civic or cultural venues (convention centres, arenas and stadiums, museums, libraries, performing arts facilities or institutional uses) and/or other uses that mutually support a substantial retail component. The mixed-use centre components should be planned as a coherent entity 7 and well-integrated physically and by function, include uninterrupted walkways and attract a significant market in their own rights, while still having regular interaction between them. 8 The primary trade area can vary widely, depending on the composition of the project. Downtown Retail Mixed-use is a subset of Retail Mixed-use. Located in downtown areas of major metropolitan markets, the retail component of a downtown mixed-use project could share several characteristics with regional malls a reasonably large selection of goods and services and a covered and multi-level layout. It may also comprise underground parking and connections to mass transit, including subways. However, the project is not exclusively retail oriented and may not necessarily include an anchor. If it does have an anchor(s) they are generally not greater than 50,000 square feet. It may be also connected to an underground or above grade system / retail corridors typically connecting large office buildings. II- FREESTANDING STORES This type of retail real estate can be divided in two segments: 1) Single store: Retail store that is stand-alone, self-contained, not physically connected to other stores in the vicinity, or not in outparcels on the peripheries of shopping centres. Therefore, it is not located in a planned shopping centre and is managed and owned as a single entity. The store may have its own parking facility. 2) Multi-stores: Retail stores with a street front, located side by side (e.g. in an urban, suburban or rural community retail strip) but not in a planned shopping centre. Although this cluster of stores may share characteristics of shopping centres (such as common walls or similar facades), they are not considered as such for a few reasons: (1) They generally don t share a common designated parking area owned and managed by the store owner(s) customers may use the curbside or public parking area nearby; (2) they are connected only by public sidewalk; (3) they are not typically managed and owned as a single entity. In some major metro areas, similar retailers may concentrate to form a unique retail destination (e.g. high street / fashion district / entertainment district). 7 The centre s planning process is more complex than for most single-purpose retail projects since it also requires the planning of non-retail uses. 8 Mixed-use centres could appear in one of the following formats: (1) a single vertical structure, (2) a multi-component structure that includes separate buildings connected by an atrium, concourse, or shopping complex with underground parking; (3) an urban village or district developed on large sites where building can be arranged and mixed horizontally as well as vertically and linked by open-air streets, pedestrians connections, parks, plazas and/or squares. They often comprise stacking uses-residential or office over retail in low- or mid-rise buildings. 5

24 CANADIAN RETAIL REAL ESTATE TYPES SUMMARY Type of Retail Real Estate Concept I Shopping Centres A- Traditional Shopping Centre 1- Convenience Open-air property with a few tenants that offer a narrow mix of goods and personal services to a very limited trade area, including walk-in traffic. The configuration is typically linear, with an attached row of stores or service outlets owned and managed as a coherent retail unit and with on-site parking usually in front of the stores. 2- Neighbourhood Open-air property designed to address the daily needs of consumers in the immediate neighborhood but with a broader offering than the convenience centre. It is usually configured as a straight-line strip with adequate off-street parking at the front and has in most cases a limited trade area of less than five kilometers. 3- Community Open-air and/or enclosed property that also focuses on daily needs but with a wider range of soft goods and services than neighborhood centers. It is basically a cluster of attached retail units that can be open-air and/or enclosed with significant off-street paved parking surrounding the building that can be generally accessed from two or more sides. Its trade area is usually less than 10 kilometers with exceptions in less populated areas. 4- Regional Mall Enclosed comparison-based centre that focuses on general merchandise or fashion-oriented offerings but that also provides services in full depth and variety. It usually has an inward orientation of the stores connected by common areas/walkways or malls, flanked on one or both sides by various entrances with offstreet surface and/or structured parking surrounding the outside perimeter. It could be multi-leveled with escalators, stairs and elevators between levels. There may be outparcels or pad store locations. A regional mall could be located in downtown areas of major metropolitan markets and be called a downtown regional mall. Its primary trade area is eight to twenty kilometers. 5- Super-regional Mall Similar in concept to the regional mall but has a deeper breadth and depth of merchandise and stores (including destination retailers), a larger food court, a greater offering of food stores and service uses and a more comprehensive mix of entertainment activities and dining options. It is often situated on mass transit lines and along major highway corridors. Its primary trade area is ten to thirty kilometers and encompasses an extensive population base. B- Specialty Shopping Centre 1- Power Open-air centre that typically comprises three or more large-format retailers ( big boxes or categorydominant anchors ) that are mostly freestanding (unconnected). It may also have a few small specialty tenants mostly in the scattered multi-tenant buildings on the site. As with other open-air centres, ample onsite paved parking is located in front of the stores and around the site at the ground level. Its primary trade area is eight to twenty kilometers. 2- Factory Outlet Open-air and/or enclosed centre that comprise manufacturers and retailers outlet stores selling brand-name goods at a discount usually selling surplus stock, prior-season or slow selling merchandise and especially designed merchandise. Its primary trade area is twenty to fifty kilometers. 3- Lifestyle Open-air centre mostly located in a residential neighborhood that generally includes at least 50,000 square feet of retail space (GLA) occupied by chain specialty stores but also restaurants, specialty food stores and entertainment venues. This multi-purpose leisure-time destination has design ambience and amenities such as fountains and street furniture that are conducive to casual browsing. Its primary trade area is ten to twenty kilometers. Gross Leasable Area (Square Feet) Anchor 10,000-39,000 Typically anchored by a convenience store. 40,000-99,999 Generally anchored by a supermarket or, in recent years, a drugstore or a discount store. 100, ,000 Usually anchored by more than one large-format store, which could be a convenience-based tenant, such as a supermarket or a super drugstore, or a more general merchandise-oriented tenant, such as a discount department store or a value-oriented big box categorydominant retailer. 300, ,999 Generally anchored by at least two large-format stores, most often department stores occupying typically a minimum of 70,000 square feet. Possibly anchored as well in recent years by large-format discount stores and/or minianchors or big-box specialty retailers occupying between 15,000 and 40,000 square feet. 800,000+ Generally anchored by at least three large-format stores and of the same type as for regional malls. However, anchors tend to be more numerous in super-regional than regional malls. 100,000-1,000,000 Usually anchored by discount department stores, warehouse clubs, off-price stores or other category killers, i.e., stores that offer a vast selection in relatedmerchandise categories at very competitive retail prices. 50, ,000 Generally not anchored, although certain brand-name stores may serve as magnet tenants. 150, ,000 May be anchored by a large-format specialty store, a smaller version of a department store and/or entertainment venues such as cinemas. 6

25 CANADIAN RETAIL REAL ESTATE TYPES SUMMARY - Continued from Page 6 Type of Retail Real Estate Concept Gross Leasable Area (Square Feet) Anchor I Shopping Centres C- Shopping Centre Hybrid A centre that significantly combines predominant elements from two or more distinct traditional and/or specialty shopping centre types, e.g. power centre, regional mall and lifestyle centres. Its primary trade area can vary widely, depending on the composition of the project. 250,000+ Anchored according to the shopping centre types integrated in the property. D- Retail Mixed-Use Development Multi-component structure developed as a single and coherent entity where its retail component is predominant and accounts for one of at least two significant revenue-producing uses. The non-retail uses could be residential, office, hotel, transportation (airport, train or bus stations where there is a consolidation of retail units on the premises) entertainment, recreation, sport, civic or cultural venues and/or other uses that mutually support a substantial retail component. Its primary trade area can vary widely, depending on the composition of the project. 50,000+ for the retail component and a minimum of 3 commercial retail units Depends on the composition of the project Downtown Retail Mixed-Use is a subset of Retail Mixed-Use that is located in downtown areas of major metropolitan markets. The retail component of a downtown mixed-use project could share several characteristics with regional malls a reasonably large selection of goods and services and a covered and multi-level layout. It may also comprise underground parking and connections to mass transit, including subways. However, the project is not exclusively retail oriented and may not necessarily include an anchor. II Freestanding Stores 1- A single store is stand-alone, self-contained, not physically connected to other stores in the vicinity, or not in outparcels on the peripheries of shopping centres. It is managed and owned as a single entity and may have its own parking. No minimum size Depends on the store 2- Multi-stores (e.g. street front) are retail stores with a street front, located side by side (e.g. in an urban, suburban or rural community retail strip) but not in a planned shopping centre. In some merto areas, similar retailers may concentrate to form a unique retail destination (e.g. high street / fashion district / entertainment district). No minimum size Depends on the stores NOTE TO USERS: As a reminder, the above definitions should be interpreted as typical for each centre type. They are not meant to encompass the operating characteristics of every centre. As a general rule, the main determinants in classifying a shopping centre are its concept and size. 7

26 EXAMPLES OF SHOPPING CENTRE TYPES Centre Name City and Province Centre Name City and Province A- Traditional Shopping Centres A- Traditional Shopping Centres 1- Convenience Connell Street Plaza Woodstock, New Brunswick 5-Super-regional Mall Carrefour Laval Laval, Québec Joseph Howe Drive Plaza Halifax, Nova Scotia Chinook Centre Calgary, Alberta Hamilton-Highbury Plaza London, Ontario Laurier Québec Québec, Québec Place du Marché Dollard-des-Ormeaux, Québec Metropolis at Metrotown Burnaby, British Columbia Plaza Barkoff Trois-Rivières, Québec Pacific Centre Vancouver, British Columbia Plaza des Gerbes Québec, Québec Polo Park Shopping Centre Winnipeg, Manitoba Scott Street Plaza St. Catharines, Ontario Promenades de L'Outaouais Gatineau, Québec Taylor Plaza Red Deer, Alberta Scarborough Town Centre Toronto, Ontario Terwillegar Heights Shopping Centre Edmonton, Alberta Square One Shopping Centre Mississauga, Ontario UAS Plaza Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island Yorkdale Shopping Centre Toronto, Ontario 2- Neighbourhood Bayer's Lake Plaza Halifax, Nova Scotia Burrows Crossing Winnipeg, Manitoba Carrefour Lac-Mégantic Lac-Mégantic, Québec Champlain Street Plaza Moncton, New Brunswick Glamorgan Shopping Centre Calgary, Alberta Hamlyn Road Plaza St. John's, Newfoundland Squamish Station Shopping Centre Squamish, British Columbia Sunnybrook Plaza Toronto, Ontario Centre Name City and Province Tillsonburg Gateway Centre Tillsonburg, Ontario B- Specialty Shopping Centres University Plaza Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1- Power Crossroads Station Shopping Centre Winnipeg, Manitoba 3- Community Aberdeen Shopping Centre New Glasgow, Nova Scotia Grandview & Rupert Street Power Centre Vancouver, British Columbia Capilano Mall Edmonton, Alberta Méga Centre Beauport Québec College Park Mall Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Mégacentre Rive-Sud Saint-Romuald, Québec Fairview Mall Saint Catharines St. Catharines, Ontario RioCan Shawnessy Calgary, Alberta Lancaster Mall Saint John, New Brunswick Saskatoon South SmartCentre Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Northgate Shopping Centre Winnipeg, Manitoba SmartCentres Leaside Toronto, Ontario Oakridge Mall London, Ontario South Edmonton Common Edmonton, Alberta Place Longueuil Longueuil, Québec Trinity Common Brampton Brampton, Ontario Plaza Côte Des Neiges Montréal, Québec Wheeler Park Power Centre Moncton, New Brunswick 4- Regional Mall Royal City Centre New Westminster, British Columbia 2- Factory Outlet Canada One Factory Outlets Niagara Falls, Ontario Avalon Mall St. John's, Newfoundland Cookstown Outlet Mall Cookstown, Ontario Bayshore Shopping Centre Ottawa, Ontario Dixie Outlet Mall Mississauga, Ontario Centre Laval Laval, Québec Factoreries St-Sauveur Saint-Sauveur, Québec Edmonton City Centre Edmonton, Alberta Kings Crossing Fashion Outlets Kingston, Ontario Kildonan Place Winnipeg, Manitoba St. Jacobs Factory Outlet Mall Waterloo, Ontario Masonville Place London, Ontario Southworks Outlet Mall Cambridge, Ontario Mic Mac Mall Halifax, Nova Scotia Windsor Crossing Windsor, Ontario Oakridge Centre Vancouver, British Columbia 3- Lifestyle The Shops at Morgan Crossing Surrey, British Columbia Regent Mall Fredericton, New Brunswick The Village at Vaughan Mills Vaughan, Ontario Richmond Centre Richmond, British Columbia Uptown Victoria, British Columbia 8

27 EXAMPLES OF SHOPPING CENTRE TYPES - Continued from Page 8 Centre Name C- Shopping Centre Hybrid CrossIron Mills Vaughan Mills Park Place Park Royal/Village at Park Royal D- Retail Mixed-Use Development Brunswick Square Century Park Maple Leaf Square First Canadian Place Place Ville-Marie Quartier Dix30 Shops at Don Mills Station Square The Village at Thunderbird Centre Toronto Eaton Centre World Exchange Plaza Centre City and Province Calgary, Alberta Vaughan, Ontario Barrie, Ontario West Vancouver, British Columbia Saint John, New Brunswick Edmonton, Alberta Toronto, Ontario Toronto, Ontario Montréal, Québec Brossard, Québec Toronto, Ontario Vancouver, British Columbia Langley, British Columbia Toronto, Ontario Ottawa, Ontario Super-regional/Outlet Super-regional/Outlet Power/Lifestyle Regional/Lifestyle Retail/Office/Hotel Retail/Office/Residential Downtown mixed use with retail and office. Retail/Office Additional Information Retail/Office/Hotel Retail/Office/Residential Downtown mixed use with retail / residential / office Downtown mixed use with retail / office Retail/Office Retail/Offices/Hotel/ Residential Retail/Office/Residential 9

28 Town of Innisfil Retail Demand Study, Alcona Settlement Area Appendix C Licence Plate Survey Licence plate surveys are commonly employed to determine the customer draw of a single retail location, retail shopping plaza / centre, or retail node. Typically, the results are used as input into the delineation of a Study Area. Licence Plate Survey Approach and Limitations Licence plate surveys consist of recording the licence plates of vehicles leaving a retail parking lot. Typically, the recording of licence plates is distributed over two to three days (including a Saturday) at various times of the day, to ensure a representative sample. Once the licence plates have been recorded, they are submitted to the Ministry of Transportation ( MTO ). The MTO provides the corresponding Dissemination Area ( DA ) code based on the address of the registered owner of the vehicle. Leased vehicles are also tracked to the address of the registered operator, not the leasing company. A DA is a small geographical area composed of one or more neighbouring blocks, with a population of 400 to 700 persons. All of Canada is divided into DAs. The results of the DA information obtained from the MTO are summarized and mapped by TER. This information is used in determining the customer draw of the various locations surveyed. If licence plate surveys were conducted at multiple locations, the aggregated results provide an indication of the customer draw of the node or community. It should be noted that licence plate surveys have limitations when determining the customer draw of a single retail location, retail shopping plaza / centre, or retail node. Some of these limitations are outlined below: Licence plate surveys do not factor in pedestrian traffic or customers using public transit; The user of the vehicle may not be the owner of that vehicle and therefore, the DA corresponding to the address of the registered owner of the vehicle may not reflect the customer draw; and A licence plate survey counts the number of cars at a location, but does not survey the actual expenditures made. Therefore, although the survey approximates the customer draw of the retail location, the proportion of expenditures may differ geographically. Despite these limitations, a licence plate survey is a valuable tool when determining the customer draw of a single retail location, retail shopping plaza / centre, or retail node. C-1

29 Town of Innisfil Retail Demand Study, Alcona Settlement Area Licence Plate Survey Typically, licence plate surveys are conducted to estimate Study Area boundaries and inflow factors. A survey of vehicle licence plates was undertaken by TER in the parking areas of major retailers located within the existing commercial area established along Innisfil Beach Road in Alcona. The following locations were surveyed over the period of August th 2010: In the parking area of the Sobeys supermarket in Alcona; and, In the parking area of the Home Hardware in Alcona. The recorded vehicle plate numbers were sent to MTO for conversion into location data known by Statistics Canada as Dissemination Area codes. This information was plotted on the maps provided and taken into consideration when determining the Study Area of this analysis. The survey distribution is illustrated in Table C-1. The time periods, distributions and locations of the sampling areas were determined by TER. Table C-2 illustrates the results of the licence plate survey sorted by location. Maps plotting the origins of shoppers, as defined by the approximate location of the registered owners of vehicles, are also provided for each sample location. C-2

30 TABLE C-1 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON ALCONA VEHICLE LICENCE PLATE SURVEY SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION (1 Sobeys Samples Percent Distribution Home Hardware Samples (2 Percent Distribution Thursday, August 16, :00-11:00am 25 20% 25 20% 11:00-2:30pm 31 25% 31 25% 2:30-5:00pm 31 25% 31 25% 5:00-8:00pm 38 30% 38 30% Daily Total % % Friday, August 17, :00-11:00am 30 20% 30 20% 11:00-2:30pm 38 25% 38 25% 2:30-5:00pm 37 25% 37 25% 5:00-8:00pm 45 30% 45 30% Daily Total % % Saturday August 18, :00-11:00am 52 30% 61 35% 11:00-2:30pm 44 25% 61 35% 2:30-5:00pm 44 25% 53 30% 5:00-8:00pm 35 20% n/a n/a Daily Total % % Total Surveys Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) Samples based on traffic flow patterns, field observations and site inspections. 2) Samples taken at Home Hardware from 2:30 to close on Saturday.

31 TABLE C-2 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON ALCONA LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS BY STUDY AREA ZONE Licence Plate Survey Results Municipality / Zone Sobeys Jans Blvd. Home Hardware Innisfil Beach Rd. Innisfil Alcona Primary Market % % Innisfil North Zone % % Innisfil South & West Zone % % Total - Innisfil % % Other Ontario Barrie % % Bradford West Gwillimbury 3 0.7% 8 1.9% Essa 1 0.2% 6 1.4% New Tecumseh 3 0.7% 0 0.0% Newmarket 1 0.2% 3 0.7% Toronto % % Mississauga 6 1.4% 6 1.4% Brampton 5 1.2% 3 0.7% Vaughan 1 0.2% % Ottawa 6 1.4% 4 0.9% Rest of Ontario % % Total - Other Ontario % 32.2% Total Ontario % % Other - Outside Ontario 2 0.5% 1 0.2% TOTAL LICENCE PLATE SAMPLE % % Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) Survey results based on Ministry of Transportation "Vehicle Ownership Registration" information for licence plates recorded over the period of October See Table B-1 for sampling distribution information.

32 LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS FOR SOBEYS Legend - Alcona Primary Core - Innisfil North Zone and Innisfil South & West Zone NOTE: In most cases single icons represent multiple customers.

33 LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS FOR HOME HARDWARE Legend - Alcona Primary Core - Innisfil North Zone and Innisfil South & West Zone NOTE: In most cases single icons represent multiple customers.

34 Town of Innisfil Retail Demand Study, Alcona Settlement Area Appendix D On-Street Intercept Survey Research TER completed an on-street interview survey of 431 pedestrian visitors contacted in the commercial areas of Alcona and Stroud over the period of August 23 rd - 31 st These surveys consisted of 9 interview questions, and provided TER with insight from local patrons regarding the purpose of their visit to the Town, proposed retail merchandising and tenanting concepts, as well as quantifying shopping patterns such as the types of stores / services visited, frequency of shopping, stores / services desired, etc. In addition, TER recorded the postal codes of visitors. This information was taken into consideration when determining the Study Area. The following graphs summarize the results of the Intercept Survey. D-1

35 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT/ VISITOR SURVEY RESULTS 1. What is the name of the community in which you permanently reside in? Sandy Cove Acres 0.7% Lefroy 0.9% Churchill 0.4% Toronto 2.8% Barrie 7.0% Other 5.0% Bell Ewart 0.9% Sandy Cove 1.5% Stroud 2.8% Innisfill 46.5% Alcona 31.4% 2. Which of the following describes you? You are a person who... Works in Innisfil and resides elsewhere? 3.3% Is a seasonal resident occupying a cottage or other seasonal dwelling? 3.5% A first time visitor or day tripper? 6.1% Is a guest of a resort, motel, seasonal dwelling, etc.? 0.4% Other 2.0% Is a permanent residnet of Innisfil? 84.7%

36 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT/ VISITOR SURVEY RESULTS 3. What is the main purpose of your trip to Alcona/Stroud today? a. Have you or are you planning to do any shopping or visit any service today? No 3% Yes 97%

37 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT/ VISITOR SURVEY RESULTS 4b. Can you tell me how much money you have spent or plan on spending in Alcona/ Stroud today in the following three categories? Resident Spending Restaurant & Fast Food 6% Non Food Items (excluding items purchased at Supermarkets) 33% Supermarket Items (including Food and Non Food Items) 61% Non-Resident Spending Non Food Items (excluding items purchased at Supermarkets) 19% Restaurant & Fast Food 10% Supermarket Items (including Food and Non Food Items) 71%

38 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT/ VISITOR SURVEY RESULTS 4c. Aside from your visit to Alcona / Stroud, can you tell me if you have shopped or if you are planning on shopping elsewhere? Residents Yes 37% No 63% 4d. Where? (Other shopping locations) Cookstown 2% Bradford 2% Newmarket 4% Toronto 4% Stroud 2% Other 9% Residents Barrie 77%

39 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT/ VISITOR SURVEY RESULTS 4c. Aside from your visit to Alcona / Stroud, can you tell me if you have shopped or if you are planning on shopping elsewhere? Non-Residents YES 40% NO 60% 4d. Where? (Other shopping locations) Non-Residents Stroud, 3 Cookstown, 3 Bradford, 3 Other, 12 Newmarket, 5 Toronto, 6 Barrie, 109

40 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT/ VISITOR SURVEY RESULTS 5a. Are you a regular shopper in Alcona / Stroud? No 3% Yes 97% 5b. Can you tell me how frequently you shop in Alcona/Stroud? 2 or 3 times per month 4% Monthly 3% Rarely 2% First Time 1% Occasionally 1% Weekly 21% More than once a week 68%

41 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT/ VISITOR SURVEY RESULTS 5c.What types of retailers, retail chains or services would you like to see added to Innisfil? RETAILERS SERVICES

42 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT/ VISITOR SURVEY RESULTS 5e. Would you like to see retailers offer extended hours or 24-hr service in Alcona / Stroud? No Response 4% Yes 33% No 63%

43 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT/ VISITOR SURVEY RESULTS 6a. In what community would you say you do the majority of your food/grocery shopping? b. In what community would you say you do the majority of you non-food shopping?

44 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT/ VISITOR SURVEY RESULTS 7. Which of the following best describes when you do the majority of shopping? Saturday only 3% Sunday only 1% Weekends (Saturday & Sunday) 13% Weekday Evening (6:00-9:00) 20% Weekday Daytime (9:00-6:00) 63%

45 TOWN OF INNISFIL RESIDENT / VISITOR SURVEY Survey # DATE: (Enter Day) (Circle Day) TIME: Circle LOCATION: (Circle Location) Circle August 2010 M T W T F S S Open - 12:00 pm 1 Alcona No Frills / Sobeys / Home Hardware / Other 1 12:00 pm - 6:00 pm 2 Stroud Foodland / Other 2 6:00 pm - Close 3 Good morning/afternoon/evening, my name is Bennett / Kanistan. I work for Tate Economic Research Inc., a market research firm that has been retained by the Town of Innisfil to conduct a brief survey of local residents and visitors to the Community. Would you please give me a few minutes of your time to answer some questions about your trip to Alcona/Stroud today? 1a) What is the name of the community in which you permanently reside in? (Interviewer: Record Municipality & Province/State then proceed to Q. 1b) b) Could you provide us your postal code and the nearest major intersection to your home? (Interviewer: Record Postal Code & intersection; then proceed to Q. 2) 2) Which of the following best describes you? (Interviewer Please Read each option and then Circle response before proceeding to Q. 3) You are a person who... i. Is a permanent resident of Innisfil? v. A first time visitor or day tripper? ii. Works in Innisfil and resides elsewhere? iii. Is a seasonal resident occupying a cottage or other seasonal dwelling? iv. Is a guest of a resort, motel, seasonal dwelling, etc.? 3) What is the main purpose of your trip to Alcona/Stroud today?(interviewer Please Read each option and then Circle response before proceeding to Q. 4a) i. Shopping vii. Work ii. Medical appointment viii Business Event (meeting, convention, conference, etc.) iii. Banking ix. Visiting friends / family iv. Personal services x. Leisure / Exercise v. Professional services vi. Eating at a restaurant xi. Other (please define) vi. Other (please define) 4) Shopping Activity a) Have you or are you planning to do any shopping or visit any services today? YES NO (Interviewer Please check the appropriate response. Then, if 'Yes' response is given proceed to Q. 4b i) if "No" proceed to Q. 5) b) Can you tell me how much money you have spent or plan on spending in Alcona / Stroud today in the following three categories? i) Restaurant & Fast Food $ (Interviewer: Record value then proceed to Q4b ii) ii) Supermarket Items (including Food and Non Food items) $ (Interviewer: Record value then proceed to Q4b iii) iii) Non Food Items (excluding items purchased at Supermarkets) $ (Interviewer: Record value then proceed to Q4c) c) Aside from your visit to Alcona/Stroud, can you tell me if you have shopped or if you are planning on shopping elsewhere? d) Where? (Interviewer: Record Community and then proceed to Q. 5a) YES NO (Interviewer Please check the appropriate response. Then, if 'Yes' response is given proceed to Q. 4 d) if "No" proceed to Q. 5a) 5a) Are you a regular shopper in Alcona/Stroud? YES NO (Interviewer Please check appropriate response. Then, if 'Yes' response is given proceed to Q. 5 b) if "No" proceed to Q. 6 a) b) Can you tell me how frequently you shop in Alcona / Stroud?(Interviewer Please Circle and proceed to Q. 5c) i. First Time? v. Monthly ii. More than once a week? vi. Occasionally iii. Weekly vii. Rarely iv. 2 or 3 times per month c) What types of retailers, retail chains or services would you like to see added to Innisfil? (Interviewer: Record name / type and proceed to Q. 5d) d) Are there are any others? (Interviewer: if 'yes' record name above otherwise proceed to Q. 5e) e) Would you like to see retailers offer extended hours or 24-hr service in Alcona/Stroud? YES NO (Interviewer Please Check and proceed to Q. 6) 6 a) In what community would you say you do the majority of your food/grocery shopping? (Interviewer: Record Community and proceed to Q. 6 b) b) In what community would you say you do the majority of your non-food shopping? (Interviewer: Record Community and proceed to Q. 7) 7) Which of the following best describes when you do the majority of your shopping? 8) Which age category are you? i. Weekday Daytime (9:00 6:00) i. Under 25? ii. Weekday Evening (6:00 9:00pm) (Interviewer Please read each option and then Circle response before proceeding to Q. 8) ii ? iii. Saturday only iii ? iv. Sunday only iv ? v. Weekends (Saturday & Sunday) v. vi. vii ? 65 or Over? Refused 9) Including yourself, how many people live in your home? (Interviewer: Record number) (Interviewer Please read each option and then Circle response before proceeding to Q. 9) This concludes our survey. Thank You for your participation.

46 Town of Innisfil Retail Demand Study, Alcona Settlement Area Appendix E Study Area In-Home Consumer Survey Results TER contracted Network Research Field Services to undertake an in-home consumer telephone survey. Approximately 600 surveys were completed in October 2010 and included in our analysis. Network Research was provided with a detailed survey form and a sampling distribution covering the Study Area as shown in Table E-1 and the accompanying maps. Network Research drew the sample and conducted the interviews. The results of the survey were coded and tabulated by TER. A summary of the survey results are indicated in Tables E-2 to E-17. The results of this survey research were incorporated into the demand analysis included in this report. E-1

47 TABLE E-1 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON IN-HOME CONSUMER TELEPHONE SURVEY SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION Sample Area 2006 Population (1 Distribution Population Survey Distribution Alcona Primary Market 1) North of Innisfil Beach Road, South of 10 th Line - Between 20 th Sideroad and 25 th Sideroad. 2) South of Innisfil Beach Road, North of 7 th Line - Between 20 th Sideroad and St. John's Road. 3) South of 7 th Line, North of Belle Aire Beach Road - Between 20 th Sideroad and St. John's Road / Waterfront. 4) Alcona North Waterfront - North of Innisfil Beach Road, South of 10 th Line and East of 25 th Sideroad. 5) Alcona South Waterfront - South of Innisfil Beach Road and East of St. John's Road. 3, % 56 4, % 60 1, % 24 2, % 38 1, % 22 Sub-Total Alcona Primary Market 13, % 200 Innisfil North 6) 7) 8) 9) North of Big Bay Point Road / 13 th Line. 1, % 44 East of 25 th Sideroad, South 13 th Line and North of 10 th Line. 1, % 44 South of Big Bay Point Road, North of 10 th Line - Between 20t h Sideroad and 25 th Sideroad. South of Lockhart Road, North of 9 th Line - Between 10 th Sideroad and 20 th Sideroad. 2, % 50 2, % 62 Sub-Total Innisfil North 8, % 200 Innisfil South & West 10) North of 5 th Line and South of 9 th Line - Between Highway 400 and 20 th 1, % 24 Sideroad; or North of 9 th Line -Between Highway 400 and 10 th Sideroad. 11) West of Highway 400 and North of 2 nd Line % 11 12) South of 5 th Line and North of Shore Acres Drive (Highway 89) - Between 1, % 28 Highway 400 and 20 th Sideroad. 13) South of Belle Aire Beach Road, North of 3rd Line and East of 20th Sideroad. 1, % 47 14) 15) 16) South of 3 rd Line, North of 1 st Line and East of 20 th Sideroad % 24 South of Shore Acres Drive / 1 st Line and East of Highway , % 27 South of 2 nd Line and West of Highway , % 39 Sub-Total Innisfil South & West 8, % 200 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) Based on 2006 Census data extracted using PCensus software.

48 INNISFIL STUDY AREA TELEPHONE SURVEYSAMPLE AREAS Expropriation Area Expropriation Area

49 ALCONA SETTLEMENT AREA SURVEYSAMPLE AREAS

50 INNISFIL NORTH SURVEYSAMPLE AREAS Expropriation Area 9

51 INNISFIL SOUTH AND WEST SURVEYSAMPLE AREAS

52 INNISFIL SOUTH AND WEST SURVEYSAMPLE AREAS Expropriation Area

53 INNISFIL SOUTH AND WEST SURVEYSAMPLE AREAS

54 INNISFIL SOUTH AND WEST SURVEYSAMPLE AREAS

55 TABLE E-2 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON QUESTION 1 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS DEPARTMENT STORE EXPENDITURES BY LOCATION (past 3 months) Alcona Primary Market Innisfil North Zone Innisfil South & West Zone Column Sum % Column Sum % Column Sum % Sears - Barrie, Georgian Mall Bayfield Street 13.6% 17.1% 8.5% Sears - Newmarket / East Gwillimbury, Upper Canada Mall Yonge Street 0.7% 0.4% 3.5% Sears - Sault Ste. Marie 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Subtotal Sears 14.3% 17.7% 12.0% The Bay - Barrie, Georgian Mall Bayfield Street 4.6% 4.0% 3.3% The Bay - Newmarket / East Gwillimbury, Upper Canada Mall Yonge Street 1.3% 0.6% 2.8% The Bay - Toronto, Yorkdale Mall 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% The Bay - Kitchener Fairview Mall 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Subtotal The Bay 6.0% 4.6% 6.1% Wal-Mart - Barrie, Barrie South Smart Centres - 35 Mapleview Drive West 58.4% 66.2% 29.9% Wal-Mart - Barrie, 450 Bayfield Street 6.8% 7.5% 2.7% Wal-Mart - Alliston (New Tecumseth) - 30 Dunham Drive 1.2% 0.0% 7.3% Wal-Mart - Bradford West Gwillimbury, Smart Centres Bradford Holland Street West 7.9% 1.2% 31.6% Wal-Mart - Newmarket / East Gwillimbury Yonge Street 0.7% 0.0% 5.1% Wal-Mart - Aurora - Wellington 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Wal-Mart - Kitchener, Fairview Mall 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Subtotal Wal-Mart 75.0% 75.0% 76.8% Zellers - Barrie, Kozlov Centre Bayfield Street 2.6% 2.3% 1.7% Zellers - Newmarket / East Gwillimbury, Upper Canada Mall Yonge Street 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% Zellers - Newmarket / East Gwillimbury, 404 Town Centre Davis Drive 0.9% 0.1% 1.4% Zellers - Alliston (New Tecumseth), Alliston Mills Shopping Centre Young Street 0.5% 0.0% 1.2% Zellers - Toronto, Cloverdale Mall 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Zellers - Midland, Mountainview Mall 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Zellers 4.6% 2.7% 5.0% Subtotal Other Department Stores - United States 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Note: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in October These results have not been adjusted or calibrated.

56 TABLE E-3 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON QUESTION 2 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS TOTAL WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Alcona Primary Market Innisfil North Zone Innisfil South & West Zone Column Sum % Column Sum % Column Sum % Costco - Barrie, 41 Mapleview Drive East 96.3% 98.1% 81.5% Costco - Newmarket / East Gwillimbury, Yonge Street 3.2% 1.0% 18.5% Costco - Richmond Hill, 35 John Birchall Road 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% Costco - Brampton 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Note: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in October These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. TABLE E-4 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON QUESTION 3 - SUMMARY STUDY AREA RESIDENTS CANADIAN TIRE EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Alcona Primary Market Innisfil North Zone Innisfil South & West Zone Column Sum % Column Sum % Column Sum % Canadian Tire - Barrie, 75 Mapleview Drive West 86.5% 94.0% 48.4% Canadian Tire - Barrie, 320 Bayfield Street 7.0% 3.4% 4.4% Canadian Tire - Bradford West Gwillimbury, 430 Holland Street West 1.1% 1.7% 30.5% Canadian Tire - Alliston (New Tecumseth), 110 Young Street (Highway 89) 3.2% 0.0% 10.1% Canadian Tire - Newmarket / East Gwillimbury, Yonge Street 1.3% 0.6% 3.4% Canadian Tire - Vaughan, Highway 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Canadian Tire - Richmond Hill 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Canadian Tire - Toronto, Kipling / Finch 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Canadian Tire - Toronto, Queensway 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Canadian Tire - Wasaga Beach, Mosley 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Note: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in October These results have not been adjusted or calibrated.

57 TABLE E-5 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON QUESTION 4 - SUMMARY STUDY AREA RESIDENTS AUTOMOTIVE EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Alcona Primary Market Innisfil North Zone Innisfil South & West Zone Column Sum % Column Sum % Column Sum % Alcona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Alcona Primary Market 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Stroud 28.9% 11.9% 0.0% Other Innisfil North 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Innisfil North Zone 28.9% 11.9% 0.0% Lefroy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Innisfil Heights 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% Cookstown 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cookstown Outlet Mall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Innisfil South & West 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Innisfil South & West Zone 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% Barrie 39.7% 78.6% 86.3% Bradford West Gwillimbury 12.6% 0.0% 13.7% Alliston (New Tecumseth) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Newmarket / East Gwillimbury 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% Other Surrounding Municipalities 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% Subtotal Surrounding Municipalities 52.3% 88.1% 100.0% Subtotal Other Ontario 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Other Outside Ontario 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Note: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in October These results have not been adjusted or calibrated.

58 TABLE E-6 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON QUESTION 5 - SUMMARY STUDY AREA RESIDENTS GENERAL MERCHANDISE EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Alcona Primary Market Innisfil North Zone Innisfil South & West Zone Column Sum % Column Sum % Column Sum % Alcona 21.7% 13.6% 8.3% Subtotal Alcona Primary Market 21.7% 13.6% 8.3% Cookstown 0.0% 0.6% 2.4% Subtotal Innisfil South & West Zone 0.0% 0.6% 2.4% Barrie 73.5% 76.6% 27.4% Bradford West Gwillimbury 2.5% 4.6% 43.9% Alliston (New Tecumseth) 1.0% 1.2% 16.1% Newmarket / East Gwillimbury 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% Other Surrounding Municipalities 0.3% 2.3% 0.9% Subtotal Surrounding Municipalities 78.3% 85.1% 89.3% Subtotal Other Ontario 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Note: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in October These results have not been adjusted or calibrated.

59 TABLE E-7 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON QUESTION 6 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS APPAREL & ACCESSORIES EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Alcona Primary Market Innisfil North Zone Innisfil South & West Zone Column Sum % Column Sum % Column Sum % Alcona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Alcona Primary Market 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Stroud 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Innisfil North 0.3% 1.7% 0.0% Subtotal Innisfil North Zone 0.3% 1.7% 0.0% Lefroy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Innisfil Heights 1.4% 0.0% 0.8% Cookstown 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cookstown Outlet Mall 7.8% 5.9% 24.6% Other Innisfil South & West 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Innisfil South & West Zone 9.2% 5.9% 25.4% Barrie 63.4% 75.4% 39.5% Bradford West Gwillimbury 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% Alliston (New Tecumseth) 1.4% 0.0% 0.6% Newmarket / East Gwillimbury 15.0% 10.6% 20.5% Other Surrounding Municipalities 9.4% 4.6% 9.3% Subtotal Surrounding Municipalities 89.1% 90.7% 71.2% Subtotal Other Ontario 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% Subtotal Other Outside Ontario 1.2% 0.6% 3.3% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Note: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in October These results have not been adjusted or calibrated.

60 TABLE E-8 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON QUESTION 7 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS SPECIALTY STORES EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Alcona Primary Market Innisfil North Zone Innisfil South & West Zone Column Sum % Column Sum % Column Sum % Alcona 7.8% 1.9% 4.6% Subtotal Alcona Primary Market 7.8% 1.9% 4.6% Stroud 0.6% 2.8% 0.3% Other Innisfil North 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Innisfil North Zone 0.6% 2.8% 0.3% Lefroy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Innisfil Heights 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% Cookstown 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% Cookstown Outlet Mall 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Other Innisfil South & West 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Subtotal Innisfil South & West Zone 0.2% 2.8% 1.3% Barrie 80.2% 82.6% 63.3% Bradford West Gwillimbury 0.0% 0.5% 5.3% Alliston (New Tecumseth) 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% Newmarket / East Gwillimbury 2.6% 3.3% 13.9% Other Surrounding Municipalities 7.8% 4.3% 6.1% Subtotal Surrounding Municipalities 90.6% 90.7% 93.2% Subtotal Other Ontario 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% Subtotal Other Outside Ontario 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Note: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in October These results have not been adjusted or calibrated.

61 TABLE E-9 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON QUESTION 8 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS BUILDING AND HOME SUPPLY STORE EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Alcona Primary Market Innisfil North Zone Innisfil South & West Zone Column Sum % Column Sum % Column Sum % Alcona 12.1% 7.1% 6.7% Subtotal Alcona Primary Market 12.1% 7.1% 6.7% Stroud 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% Subtotal Innisfil North Zone 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% Innisfil Heights 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% Other Innisfil South & West 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% Home Hardware - Cookstown 0.2% 0.0% 3.0% Subtotal Innisfil South & West Zone 2.5% 0.0% 3.4% Barrie 75.4% 83.6% 58.9% Bradford West Gwillimbury 4.3% 5.1% 25.4% Alliston (New Tecumseth) 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Newmarket / East Gwillimbury 2.5% 2.8% 5.5% Other Surrounding Municipalities 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% Subtotal Surrounding Municipalities 85.2% 92.0% 89.9% Subtotal Other Ontario 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Note: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in October These results have not been adjusted or calibrated.

62 TABLE E-10 ALCONA RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS, INNISFIL, ON QUESTION 9 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS AND ELECTRONICS STORE EXPENDITURES (past 6 months) Alcona Primary Market Innisfil North Zone Innisfil South & West Zone Column Sum % Column Sum % Column Sum % Alcona 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Alcona Primary Market 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Stroud 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Innisfil North 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Innisfil North Zone 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Lefroy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Innisfil Heights 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% Cookstown 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cookstown Outlet Mall 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Innisfil South & West 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Innisfil South & West Zone 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% Barrie 73.5% 93.6% 57.1% Bradford West Gwillimbury 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Alliston (New Tecumseth) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Newmarket / East Gwillimbury 6.0% 6.2% 19.1% Other Surrounding Municipalities 18.9% 0.2% 22.6% Subtotal Surrounding Municipalities 98.4% 100.0% 100.0% Subtotal Other Ontario 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Subtotal Other Outside Ontario 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Note: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in October These results have not been adjusted or calibrated.