Southern New Hampshire

Transcription

1 Retail Real Estate Trends & Analysis 16 Southern New Hampshire New This Year: 1-Year Retail Category Report The KeyPoint Report 16 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, BURLINGTON, MA KeyPoint Partners, LLC One Burlington Woods Drive, Burlington, MA 18 Tel Fax KeyPointPartners.com

2 About this Report: Highlights: This KeyPoint Report examines the retail marketplace, noting changes in supply, vacancy and absorption, retailer activity, and market composition by store size and retail categories during the period from June 1 to June 16. The study includes 9 cities and towns, representing more than 8 square miles and approximately, people (% of the state population). Supply: 9.8M SF 1: 9.9M Absorption: -66,1 SF 1: 8, SF Vacancy Rate: 1.% 1: 9.6% KeyPoint Partners GRIID database maintains detailed information on virtually all retail properties in three key regions: Eastern Massachusetts, Southern New Hampshire and Greater Hartford, Connecticut. These markets encompass approximately % of all retail space in New England. GRIID has information on nearly 6 million square feet of retail space and nearly 6, retail establishments. City/Town Ranks: #1 Space SF: Nashua #1 High Occupancy: Salem #1 High Vacancy: Seabrook Category Expansion by Square Feet: #1 Grocery Stores (+76, SF) Category Expansion by Number of Stores: #1 Medical/Dental Services(+6) The KeyPoint Reports contain a detailed summary and analysis of market trends and activity for each studied area. Copyright KeyPoint Partners, LLC, 16 Retailer Expansion by Square Feet: #1 FitLab Fitness Club (+86,) #1 Mattress Firm/FitLab (+ each) Study Area: Cities & Towns in the Study Area: Amherst, Atkinson, Auburn, Bedford, Brentwood, Brookline, Chester, Danville, Derry, East Kingston, Exeter, Fremont, Greenville, Hampstead, Hampton, Hampton Falls, Hollis, Hudson, Kensington, Kingston, Litchfi eld, Londonderry, Lyndeborough, Manchester, Mason, Merrimack, Milford, Mont Vernon, Nashua, Newton, North Hampton, Pelham, Plaistow, Salem, Sandown, Seabrook, South Hampton, Wilton, Windham

3 KeyPoint Partners, LLC Custom Retail Market Research The KeyPoint Report Southern New Hampshire 16 Figure 1: Summary Retail inventory showed a modest decline of 19, square feet, or.%, ending the year at approximately 8.9 million square feet. This resulted largely from retail demolitions and conversions to non-retail space. Category Total Market Size (Square Feet) Total Number of Retail Properties Total Number of Retail Establishments Retail Store Average Size Total Market Vacancy Square Feet Vacant Stores Vacancy Rate Total Retail Space Per Capita 16 9,8,,1,,6,11, %.8 1 % Change 9,99,9,1,,6,87,1 Vacancy & Absorption: The vacancy rate in the region increased from 9.6% to 1.% throughout the year, essentially falling back to 1 levels. However, two-thirds of the increase in vacant square feet resulted from the closing of four Sports Authority stores totaling 17, square feet. Net absorption for the year was a negative 66,1 square feet %. -.%.% -1.9%.% 8.9% 1.1% 9.% -1.% Observations: Special Feature: This year s Report, in addition to our usual detailed summary of market activity for the last year, includes a special feature: a 1-year review of tenant changes by retail category, including both Square Feet Change and Store Count Change. Here are our comments and observations on activity during the latest year: Supply, Occupancy, & Absorption (Figure 1, Page ): Retail inventory in Southern New Hampshire included 9.8 million square feet in 16. This represents a modest decline of 19, square feet, or.%, resulting largely from retail demolitions and conversions to non-retail space. There were significant new store additions, however, negating most of the reduction in square footage within the region. The single largest new development was Walmart Supercenter in Manchester, replacing a nearby traditional store which was acquired by Carmax. The demolition of a former Market Basket store in Londonderry, which has been sitting idle since this supermarket chain relocated on-site to its larger store at the Woodmont Commons redevelopment project, will allow for limited pad site development. Whole Foods opened in Bedford, the initial phase of Goffe Mill Plaza, a new mixed-use development that will include residential apartments, a bank, and restaurants. The largest demolition in the region was the former Macy s building in Bedford. This site will be redeveloped as a mixed-use project dubbed Bedford Place, which will include retail, office, medical and restaurant space. Another upcoming major change is the planned 1-screen Chunky s theater that will occupy a significant portion of the former Lowe s Home Improvement store in Manchester, which has been available since 11. Dick s also added a large prototype in Salem, occupying most of the second level space that had been occupied by Sears in The Mall at Rockingham Park. A number of closings in Southern New Hampshire during the year resulted in an increase of 6,7 square feet of unoccupied space in the region, causing a jump in the vacancy rate from 9.6% to 1.%, about the level experienced in 1. Two-thirds of the incremental gain can be attributed to the recent closing of four Sports Authority stores. Individual Town Rankings (Figure, Page 6): There has been no change in the ten largest regional markets: Nashua continues to rank first with 6. million square feet of inventory; Manchester follows at. million square feet; and Salem is a distant third at.8 million square feet. Seabrook and Bedford follow with. million square feet and 1.6 million square feet, respectively. Among towns with at least, square feet of retail space, Salem tops the rankings for lowest vacancy rate at.8%. Bedford, last year s top-ranked community, dropped in the rankings in spite of Hannaford taking over the former Stop & Shop, which was offset by Hannaford vacating its original Bedford store. Hudson is this year s runner-up at 6.8%. Nashua, Derry, and Exeter complete the top five. Seabrook continues to have the highest vacancy rate in the region at 17.8%, although this figure will decline if the vacant Walmart store at Seacoast Shopping Center is acquired by Ocean State Job Lot, which is likely. Manchester continues to have the second highest vacancy rate, although it Nashua retains number 1 rank in retail supply has lowered slightly from a year ago through Chunky s lease commitment to a portion of the vacant Lowe s building. North Hampton rounds out the top three. Vacancy by Store Size (Figure, Page 6): Looking at vacancy rates by store size, it was not encouraging to see all categories less than 1, square feet showing an increase in vacancy between 1 and 16. However, the,-99,999 square foot segment was impacted by a reduction in vacant square footage from Chunky s commitment to the Lowe s space noted above. Consequently, the 1,-199,999 square foot classification now has less vacancy than last year. This classification also benefited from the quick absorption of the former 19, square foot Walmart in Manchester by Carmax. Not surprisingly, the vacancy rate in the,-9,999 square foot bracket showed the sharpest rise due to the four vacant Sports Authority stores included in this size range - stores ranged in size from, square feet to 6, square feet. Vacancy among smaller independent retailers continues to be troublesome - both classifications under, square feet have significantly higher vacancy rates in 16 than 1. Retailer Activity (Figure, Page 8): Fitlab Fitness Club led the way in incremental new space in Southern New Hampshire by acquiring and rebranding five Gold s Gym locations in the region. A new Dick s store in Salem moved this retailer into second place. As noted already, Dick s is subleasing a portion of Sears second level space at The Mall at Rockingham Park. Walmart was third following a Manchester relocation of its traditional store to a supercenter prototype, netting 6, square feet of new retail space. The vacant Walmart space was quickly absorbed by Carmax, which acquired the 19, square foot building. Whole Foods Market also opened its second New Hampshire location, in Manchester, a year after opening in Nashua. This specialty grocer is attempting to obtain approval on a location in Portsmouth, outside our territory, but so far this effort has been hampered by an appeal from a local opposition group. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice. Copyright 16 KeyPoint Partners, LLC Continued on page 7

4 Custom Retail Market Research KeyPoint Partners, LLC The KeyPoint Report Southern New Hampshire 16 Figure : City & Town Rankings Nashua, Manchester, and Salem continue to dominate the retail scene in Southern New Hampshire. These three cities encompass % of the retail space in a region comprised of 9 cities and towns. The top ten communities represent 8% of the retail inventory in Southern New Hampshire. Among communities with, square feet, Bedford is the only town with a vacancy rate less than %. Seabrook has the highest vacancy rate at 17.8%. Most Space SF Lowest Vacancy* Prior Rank Highest Vacancy* Prior Rank Nashua Manchester Salem Seabrook Bedford Merrimack Plaistow Derry Londonderry Hudson *For cities and towns with, square feet or more of retail space. Municipalities not meeting this threshold in prior year are denoted by N. Figure : Market Composition & Vacancy by Tenant Size The 1,-199,999 square foot segment of the retail inventory was the only classifi cation to lower its vacancy rate. This occurred as a result of a partial replacement of the vacant Lowe s building in Manchester, which will be occupied by Chunky s movie theater. All other classifi cations ended the year with higher vacancy rates, which was most evident in the,-9,999 square foot bracket, impacted by the Sports Authority closings, which totaled 17, SF. Tenant Size Market SF Less Than, SF, to,999 SF, to 9,999 SF 6,16,,8,,86, 1,999, 1,, 1,66, 1,,8 1,7, 1,6,9 1, to,999 SF, to 9,999 SF, to 99,999 SF 898,8 1, to 199,999 SF, SF and above Salem Hudson Nashua Derry Exeter,71,7,76,,78,9,7,9,8,8,6,9,817,,.8% 6.8% 7.1% 8.% 8.7% Vacancy SF Vacancy Rate Share of Total 69,9 61, 7, 16,6 17,, 19,1 6 NA Seabrook Manchester North Hampton Londonderry Merrimack 1.8% 1.% 1.% 7.% 1.6% 11.%.%.% 17.8% 16.% 1.9% 1.% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 11.1% 1.1% 19.%.7% 1 7 Top 1 Expanding Retailers* *By added square footage Observations Continued With respect to store count, Mattress Firm tied Fitlab Fitness Club for the most new locations, each adding five units. Mattress Firm replaced an LL Bean Outlet store in Manchester, Bob s Discount Furniture in Seabrook, and Sleepy s in Salem in addition to opening two new locations in Salem and Amherst. Aldi added three stores in Nashua, Derry, and Manchester. FitLab Fitness Club led expansion in the region The demolition of Macy s in Bedford caused this retailer to lose the most retail space in the region. The South River Road store was sold for $1 million to Dallas-based Encore Enterprises, Inc., which plans to redevelop the site as an upscale lifestyle center. The liquidation of Sports Authority, resulting in the closing of four stores in Nashua, Manchester, Amherst, and Salem, placed this retailer in second place. Gold s Gym was a distant third with all locations converting to Fitlab Fitness Club. Gold s Gym was also the leader in the number of stores closed with five. Sports Authority was second with four stores, and 7-Eleven followed with three units. Retail Categories (Figure, Page 9): Grocery Stores contributed the largest block of additional space to the region during the year, largely from the addition of non-traditional grocers. Two discount grocers opened new stores, Price Rite in Manchester and Aldi in Nashua, Manchester, and Derry. Whole Foods also opened a store in Bedford, its second in New Hampshire. Amusement & Recreation followed with Glow Golf opening mall locations in Nashua and Manchester. Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores ended the year ranked third, primarily from the addition of a,7 square foot New Hampshire Liquor & Wine Outlet in Salem. The closing of Macy s in Bedford pushed the Department Store category to the top of the ranking by space contraction. The only other category to experience a loss of more than 1, square feet was, resulting from four Sports Authority closings. Coming in a distant third was Family Apparel with the Gap store in Manchester responsible for about one-half the square footage decline. 6 No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice. Copyright 16 KeyPoint Partners, LLC Continued on page 9 7

5 KeyPoint Partners, LLC Custom Retail Market Research The KeyPoint Report Southern New Hampshire 16 Figure : Retailer Activity The region encompasses more than, retail establishments, representing approximately, unique retailers. The following summarizes these by the degree of expansion or contraction. Expansion by SF Retailer New Total Fitlab Fitness Club Dick s Wal-Mart Aldi Food Market Price Rite Whole Foods Market Mattress Firm Glow Golf NH State Liquor Store Tractor Supply Fit Lab Fitness Club Mattress Firm Aldi Food Market Orangetheory Fitness IM Wireless Art of Eyebrows Dunkin Donuts 86, 79, 6,,17,,,,, 19, Expansion by Retailer New Total 86, 9, 1,66,6 91,98 7, 7,7,, 177, 1,8 Contraction by SF Retailer Contracted Total Macy s Sports Authority Gold s Gym Sears A.C. Moore Arts & Crafts Namco Gap Used Book Superstore Tuesday Morning Elite Fitness Gold s Gym Sports Authority 7-Eleven Food Store Boost Mobile Twins Smoke Shop Metro PCS Myriad Games NOTE: Figures shown in the charts above refl ect net changes. 18, 17, 86, 79,, 1,7 17,8 1, 1,8 1, 8, 91, 6, 6, 8, 11,7 Contraction by Retailer Contracted Total Cumberland Farms Food Store Expansion by SF Category New Total Amusement & Recreation Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores Medical & Dental Services Equipment Rental Tobacco Stores and Stands Beauty Supplies and Cosmetics Office & Stationery Supplies Expansion by Category New Total Medical & Dental Services Insurance Health & Fitness Services Beauty Supplies and Cosmetics Brokers & Financial Advisors Office & Stationery Supplies Tobacco Stores and Stands Figure : Retail Category Activity Tenants in GRIID represent nearly 6 unique business classifi cations; we have aggregated similar business types into larger retail categories, and summarized these by the degree of expansion or contraction. 76, 8,1,7 18, 1, 1,7 Contraction by SF Contraction by Category Contracted Total Observations Continued With non-retail playing a greater role these days in the tenant mix of shopping centers, it should not be all that surprising to find Medical & Dental Services and Insurance as the leading categories in store count growth this year, netting six and four units, respectively. Furniture, led by Mattress Firm additions, tied with Health & Fitness Services - each added three locations. The largest drop in category store count was Restaurants, declining by 6 units. followed with 1 fewer locations. Grocery declined by 11 stores, primarily smaller independent and convenience operators. Conclusions: Although the vacancy rate in the region increased this past year to 1.%, we can attribute the bulk of the change to the liquidation of Sports Authority, which include four New Hampshire locations. Without these store closings, the rate would have been 9.9%, modestly higher than last year. But we still find this somewhat disappointing following a strong comeback year in 1. Nevertheless, it is no secret that the battle between brick-andmortar and e-commerce is causing revolutionary changes in the retail industry, and has certainly played a role in the demise of Sports Authority as it has with Circuit City, Borders, and other major retailers for nearly a decade now. It should be expected that there will be an equilibrium point, beyond which brick-and-mortar sales begin trending similarly to internet sales. Unfortunately, it may be some years before it occurs. Of course, we have Amazon to thank for much of the shift in retail shopping habits today. This 8-pound digital gorilla, which now accounts for 6% of all internet sales, has surgically and categorically impacted retailing in a way that is potentially greater than the impact Wal-Mart had more than a decade ago. Revenue at Amazon for the past 1 months was approximately $11 billion, with more than half those sales generated in the U.S. In the meantime, physical stores continue to look for ways to gain an operational advantage over internet retailers, going so far as to insert bars and restaurants to enhance the customer experience. Today entertainment venues and restaurants are playing an even more important part in the shopping center mix in an attempt to increase patronage. Store employees are being trained to engage the customer with product knowledge, resulting in a more satisfying shopping experience than one experiences online. But for many shoppers, price differential may be all that matters and that s where internet retailers have generally gained the upper hand. Bob Sheehan Vice President of Research BSheehan@KeyPointPartners.com 8 No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice. Copyright 16 KeyPoint Partners, LLC 9 9, 7,7,,,9, 7,6,1 9,, 6 8, 9,6 19, 81,9 188, Category Contracted Total Department Stores Gift, Novelty, Souvenir Shops Banks/Savings Institutions Building Materials Drinking Places Gift, Novelty, Souvenir Shops Banks/Savings Institutions Cleaners & Laundry Services Beauty Salons and Services -18,1-1,7-7,6 -, -19,8-17, -1,7-1,6-1,1-9, ,8, 6,6 876,,86, 7, 1, 9,6,19, 9, 116,

6 Special Section: A Ten-Year Review of Changes by Retail Tenant Category Dramatic Changes in Retail Tenant Store Count and Square Footage Reflect Changes in Lifestyle and Shopping Habits: In earlier Special Sections we ve explored long-term changes in the Grocery and Restaurant categories. This year we ve analyzed 1 years of data on occupancy changes in all retail tenant categories in Southern New Hampshire, and as we saw in Eastern Massachusetts, the social values, shopping habits, and lifestyle choices of shoppers in this region have clearly influenced the retail real estate landscape to a high degree. Southern New Hampshire has the 11 entry of Ulta Beauty into the region to thank for lifting Beauty Supplies and Cosmetics to the top of the square footage growth chart during the past decade, with space in that category increasing by a whopping 177%. In a c category where stores of, square feet are the norm, Ulta s tthree large-format stores, averaging 11,6 square feet, represent nearly one-third of total category space. Another category showing n phenomenal growth during the past ten years was Variety Stores, p which grew by 1%; Dollar General and Dollar Tree both entered w tthe region since 6, driving this merchandise segment into ssecond place. Even with the recent demise of Sports Authority, managed to add % to its space inventory, good S enough to rank third place. This was attributable to the opening of e tthree new Dick s stores, and the fact that Sports Authority opened and closed two of its four units during this time frame. a T liquidation of several chains, including Circuit City, Tweeter, and The Cambridge Sound Works, as well as some Radio Shack closings, C all had a hand in reducing Electronics Stores space by % since 6, the most of any category. also experience a significant decline, currently occupying 1% less space now than in 6. Furniture World store closings were the primary reason. Office Supplies was marginally better, with category space reducing by 9%. Although Staples store count remained stable in the region, square footage was reduced by more than, square feet as the company opted for smaller stores. Beauty Supplies and Cosmetics not only led the pack in percentage gain by total space, but also in store count with a gain of 78%. Medical and Dental Services came in second with a gain of %, as non-retail users become a more viable option when canvassing for shopping center replacement tenants. Drinking Places in % Change by Square Footage 6-16 % Change by Store Count Beauty Supplies & Cosm metics Medical & Dental Servicces Drinking Places Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores Shoe Stores Pet Shops/Pet Supply Sttores Bakery, Bagel & Doughn nut Beauty Salons and Services Drug Stores Variety Stores Department Stores Banks/Savings Institutio ons Auto & Home Supply Apparel - Men s and Boyys Apparel & Accessory - Misc. Health & Fitness Service es Office Supplies Amusement & Recreatio on Hobby, Toy and Game Sh hops Building Materials Cleaners & Laundry Servvices Hardware Homefurnishings Household Appliances Book Stores Gift/Novelty/Souvenir Shops Electronic Stores Beauty Supplies & Cosmetics Variety Stores Pet Shops/Pet Supply Storess Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores Apparel & Accessory - Misc. Amusement & Recreation Medical & Dental Services Hobby, Toy and Game Shopss Drug Stores Health & Fitness Services Beauty Salons and Services Banks/Savings Institutions Shoe Stores Building Materials Bakery, Bagel & Doughnut Auto & Home Supply Household Appliances Drinking Places Department Stores Apparel - Men s and Boys Hardware Gift/Novelty/Souvenir Shopss Book Stores Cleaners & Laundry Servicess Homefurnishings Office Supplies Electronic Stores 1 Five Largest retail categories ranked by current regional square footage: 1. Department Stores,8,. Grocery Stores,9,.,91,6. Building Materials,19,. Health/Fitness Services 1,1, Source: KeyPoint Partners GRIID creased by 9% during the past decade. At the opposite end of the chart, Electronics Stores experienced the largest setback with a reduced store count of %. Gift Shops and were far behind, experiencing store count declines of % and %, respectively. Many small retailers in these categories, which are comprised largely of independent, mom-and-pop operators, have struggled to remain in business during the past decade. The charts below track percentage changes in expansion and contraction by major retail tenant categories from 6 through 16. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice. Five Largest retail categories ranked by current regional store count: Beauty Salons /Services 7. Grocery Stores. Banks/Savings Institutions 17. Health/Fitness Services 16 Copyright 16 KeyPoint Partners, LLC 11

7 The KeyPoint Report 16 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, BURLINGTON, MA The KeyPoint Report 1 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, LC, BURLINGTON, MA On the cover: Walmart opened a Supercenter in Manchester, adding the most new square footage in the region. Methodology: The data for this study includes all public retail space in the study area except for a few exclusions discussed below. The information in our database has been compiled from a variety of sources. A member of KeyPoint Partners research staff has visited each store/shopping center in order to verify and/ or acquire the necessary information. The area for each space is obtained from sources deemed reliable, such as the owner or leasing agent, is paced off by our researchers or otherwise measured. Retail categories and SIC Codes are obtained from a leading business database, InfoUSA, when available. Each entry is fi eld verifi ed or determined by our research staff. In general, public retail space is characterized as all space currently, or most recently, utilized in selling or renting retail goods and/or services to the public. There are no size restrictions for stores or shopping centers. Certain retail classifi cations are excluded, including automobile dealerships, gasoline service stations, automobile repair shops and quasi-retail services, such as stock brokers, real estate agents, insurance agents, etc., unless such establishments are located in shopping centers containing typical retail tenants. In some cases wholesale or quasi-retail establishments have been included in the database if information from InfoUSA or our fi eld research indicates that goods and/or services are being offered to the public from the location. Some establishments available to the public but typically serving primarily the needs of other users of a facility, such as a cafeteria in an offi ce building or a beauty salon located inside a hotel, may also be excluded. Demographic information used in this study was provided by Scan/US. Custom Retail Market Research KeyPoint Partners provides retail research consulting services ranging from preliminary desktop assessments to comprehensive evaluations which integrate fi eld investigation and quantitative analysis for a variety of retail location and store types. The heart of our research superiority is our powerful, proprietary GRIID. Is there a custom retail market research project we can do for you? Call Bob Sheehan, Vice President of Research at , or him at BSheehan@KeyPointPartners.com. Read our daily news blog, the KeyPoint Retail RoundUp; our monthly KeyPoints retail newsletter; and our annual KeyPoint Reports at KeyPointPartners.com Property Management Retail Leasing & Tenant Representation Investment Sales Construction Research Financing & Consulting KeyPoint Partners, LLC One Burlington Woods Drive, Burlington, MA 18 Tel Fax KeyPointPartners.com Info@KeyPointPartners.com