Sea-Level Rise Trends, Projections, & Adaptation Planning for Collier County
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1 Sea-Level Rise Trends, Projections, & Adaptation Planning for Collier County NOAA Workshop February 27, 2018 Michael Savarese Florida Gulf Coast University
2 Talk Outline 1. Causes of SLR. 2. Current trends & incipient effects of SLR in Southwest FL. 3. Future projections. 4. A path to adaptation for Collier County.
3 Part I: Science of Sea-Level Rise
4 Regional Regional Global Greenland: 7.2 m / 24 ft Antarctica: 70 m / 230 ft Global 52% of SLR IPCC 2001
5 Part II: Trends & Incipient Effects
6 Tide Gauge Station
7 Naples / mm / yr Key West / mm / yr
8 Jason / TOPEX Satellites
9 Global Average Sea Levels Inferred From Tide-Gauge & Satellite Data 83 mm (3 ) since mm (8 ) since 1870 SW FL follows the global average. No significant regional effects. Church, J.A. and White, N.J. (2006)
10 Coring Sediments / Sediment Stratigraphy
11 : Supratidal / subaerial sands. 2: Intertidal mangrove peat. 3: Vermetiform-dominated shallow subtidal reef. 4: Oyster-dominated intertidal brackish reef.
12 Sea-level Curve for Southwest Florida Last 5,000 Years Best fit hand drawn curve Florida s Coastal Geomorphology Develops During This Time Savarese, 2014
13 Building the geomorphology: barrier islands & Ten Thousand Islands develop when SLR rates are low Horseshoe Keys, Estero Bay
14 Ten Thousand Islands Geomorphology 10TI prograde to create bays
15 Red Mangroves Invading Eleocharis Freshwater Marsh
16 Case study: Mangrove Expansion Ten Thousand Islands NWR Mangrove Area 1927: 5,403 ha 2005: 7,281 ha 35% Increase Up-slope migration In situ elevation adjustment Krauss et al J. Coast. Conserv. 15,
17 Pocking in the Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge Andres & Savarese, 2016
18 Andres & Savarese, 2015 West: beheaded & reduced sheetflow East: pristine sheetflow opposing SLR EAST Total # Ponds Total Pond Area (m 2 ) Average Pond Area (m 2 ) , , % CHANGE WEST Total # Ponds Total Pond Area (m 2 ) Average Pond Area (m 2 ) , , % CHANGE Quantitative Assessment
19 Hoye, 2008 Southwest Everglades Evidence of initiation, growth, and merger of ponds at different scales
20 Effects upon barrier islands Saltern Formation Islands within RBNERR
21 Barrier Island Instability, Erosion, and Migration Back-barrier Mangroves on Beach Keewaydin Island Erosional Dune Scarp After Debby Keewaydin Island
22 Hurricane Irma Erosion, Southern Keewaydin Island
23 Trends in Florida s Beach Erosion Data from DEP s Critically Eroded Beaches and FL Assessment of Coastal Trends reports
24 Part III: Projections for the Future NOAA s Climate & Weather Supercomputer
25 SLR Projections for 21 st Century IPCC, 2013 RCP 4.5 Paris Accord RCP 8.5 Business as Usual NOAA, 2017
26 Sea-level Curve for Southwest Florida Last 5,000 Years Best fit hand drawn curve Savarese, 2014
27 Combining Sea-level Curves Incipient Geomorphic Change Geomorphic Loss Coastal Geomorphic Development
28 SLR Exacerbates Effects of Storms It is during passage of storms that effects become catastrophic. Storm surge + wave height + SLR! Why landscapes don t flood like bathtubs: attenuating effects of physiography. Green infrastructure beneficial.
29 The Role of Mangroves in Reducing Coastal Inundation (Sheng and Zou, 2017, Hydrobiologia) Mangroves prevented massive flooding in Miami Dade County during Hurricane Andrew! Green infrastructure as a buffer for storm surge, wave, and inundation. With vegetation Vegetation removed
30 Part IV: Path to Adaptation for SWFL
31 NOAA-NCCOS Project A Web-based Interactive Decision-support Tool for Adaptation of Coastal Urban and Natural Ecosystems (ACUNE) in SWFL. Drs. Peter Sheng (UF) & Michael Savarese (FGCU). A 3-year project funded at ~$1M. RESTORE Act, Deepwater Horizon settlement monies. Not your typical science award! Tools for decision makers. The proposal s success: Robust science & strong collaboration with resource planners and elected officials. 3 phased approach: (1) use best available science to generate scenarios of environmental effects; (2) employ the best science to develop viable plans for adaptation; and (3) eventually engineer a plan in anticipation. ACCR: Alliance for Collier s Coastal Resilience!
32 Natural Resource Management Team Name Agency Title Address Kevin Godsea Ten Thousand Islands Team Leader / Refuge Manager Kevin_Godsea@fws.gov Mark Danaher National Wildlife Refuge Supervisory Biologist Mark_danaher@fws.gov Keith Laakkonen Reserve Manager keith.laakkonen@dep.state.fl.us Brita Jessen Research Coordinator brita.jessen@dep.state.fl.us Jeff Carter Rookery Bay National Stewardship Coordinator Jeffrey.A.Carter@dep.state.fl.us Patrick Estuarine Research Fisheries Biologist patrick.odonnell@dep.state.fl.us O Donnell Reserve Jessica Coastal Training Program jessica.mcintosh@dep.state.fl.us McIntosh Coordinator Lisa Koehler South Florida Water Lead Administrator lkoehler@sfwmd.gov Akin Owosina Management District Bureau Chief Hydrology & Hydraulics aowosin@sfwmd.gov Rhonda Watkins Senior Environmental Specialist rhondawatkins@colliergov.net Danette Kinaszczuk Collier County Pollution Control Manager danettekinaszczuk@colliergov.net Stephanie Natural Resource Manager smolloy@naplesgov.com City of Naples Molloy Chadd Chustz City of Marco Island Environmental Specialist cchustz@cityofmarcoisland.com Steve Interim Park Manager steve.houseknecht@dep.state.fl.us Houseknecht Fakahatchee State Park Mike Owen Park Biologist Mike.Owen@dep.state.fl.us Terrance Torvund Collier-Seminole State Park Manager Terrance.K.T.Torvund@dep.state.fl.u s Justin Tiseth Pk Assistant Park Manager Justin.Tiseth@dep.state.fl.us Maulik Patel Park Biologist Maulik.Patel@dep.state.fl.us Zach Lozano Delnor-Wiggins State Pk Park Manager Zachary.Lozano@dep.state.fl.us Bob Sobczak Big Cypress Natl Preserve Hydrologist Robert_Sobczak@nps.gov Sara Ayers- Rigsby Rachael Kangas Margo Schwadron FL Public Archaeological Network National Park Service Director Southeast & Southwest Regions Public Archaeology Coordinator SW Region Archaeologist sayersrigsby@fau.edu rkangas@fau.edu margo_schwadron@nps.gov Austin Bell Marco Island Historical Society Curator of Collections austinjbell@gmail.com Kathy Worley Conservancy of SWFL Director Environmental Science kathyw@conservancy.org
33 Urban Resilience & Planning Team Name Agency Title Address Linda Penniman Team Leader / Vice Mayor Naples lpenniman@naplesgov.com Bill Moss City Manager bmoss@naplesgov.com Stephanie Molloy Natl Res Manager / Stormwater smolloy@naplesgov.com Gregg Strakaluse City of Naples Streets & Stormwater Director gstrakaluse@naplesgov.com Bob Middleton Utility Director RMiddleton@naplesgov.com Robin Singer Planning Director rsinger@naplesgov.com Erica Martin Senior Planner emartin@naplesgov.com Charlette Roman City Council Member croman@marcocitycouncil.com Howard Reed City Council Member hreed@marcocitycouncil.com City of Marco Island Gil Polanco Interim City Manager gpolanco@cityofmarcoisland.com Lee Niblock City Manager - Pending Penny Taylor County Commissioner / Board Chair PennyTaylor@colliergov.net Donna Fiala County Commissioner DonnaFiala@colliergov.net Leo Ochs County Manager leoochs@colliergov.net Nick Casalanguida Deputy County Manager nickcasalanguida@colliergov.net Jerry Kurtz Stormwater Management geraldkurtz@colliergov.net Trinity Scott Transportation Planning Manager trinityscott@colliergov.net Andy Miller Transportation Engineering andrewmiller@colliergov.net Howard Critchfield Building Review & Permitting howardcritchfield@colliergov.net Caroline Cilek Collier County Floodplain Management carolinecilek@colliergov.net Chris Mason Floodplain Manager christophermason@colliergov.net David Weeks Growth Management Manager davidweeks@colliergov.net Eric Fey Senior Proj. Manager, Public Utilities ericfey@colliergov.net Rick Zyvoloski Emergency Management richardzyvoloski@colliergov.net Amy Patterson Director Capital Project Planning AmyPatterson@colliergov.net Ian Barnwell Capital Project Planning ianbarnwell@colliergov.net Anne McLaughlin Director, Collier MPO AnneMcLaughlin@colliergov.net Gary McAlpin Manager Coastal Zone Management garymcalpin@colliergov.net Lisa Koehler SFWMD Lead Administrator lkoehler@sfwmd.gov Nader Ardalan Ardalan Associates Urban Architect & Designer nader.ardalan@gmail.com Director Growth Mgmt & Planning nicolej@conservancy.org Conservancy of SFWL Nicole Johnson Brad Cornell Audubon Florida SWFL Policy Associate bcornell@audubon.org
34 Dynamic Modeling A Robust Coastal Model ACMS (CH3D-SWAN) JPM-Optimal Sampling to develop a Storm Ensemble Study Domain Products: Inundation maps Coastal vulnerability maps Salinity distribution maps Economic impact maps , 2100 For a variety of SLR magnitudes & storm conditions
35 Simulation of Hurricane Irma
36 Example Inundation Maps for Early and Late 21 st Century RCP 4.5 1ft SLR RCP 4.5 3ft SLR
37 Ensuring Success My observations / recommendations... Requires a grass roots effort: engage the community in education & discussion. Engage decision makers & local government. Find common ground. Involve them in all aspects of the process. Bring together natural & urban resource managers. Ensure process is complete: heurism, planning, implementation.
38 Ten Thousand Islands Mangrove & Buttonwood Habitat Barry, 2009; Barry et al., 2013
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