The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis

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1 The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis Volume 41 Series Editor Kenneth C. Land, Duke University

2 In recent decades, there has been a rapid development of demographic models and methods and an explosive growth in the range of applications of population analysis. This series seeks to provide a publication outlet both for high-quality textual and expository books on modern techniques of demographic analysis and for works that present exemplary applications of such techniques to various aspects of population analysis. Topics appropriate for the series include: General demographic methods Techniques of standardization Life table models and methods Multistate and multiregional life tables, analyses and projections Demographic aspects of biostatistics and epidemiology Stable population theory and its extensions Methods of indirect estimation Stochastic population models Event history analysis, duration analysis, and hazard regression models Demographic projection methods and population forecasts Techniques of applied demographic analysis, regional and local population estimates and projections Methods of estimation and projection for business and health care applications Methods and estimates for unique populations such as schools and students Volumes in the series are of interest to researchers, professionals, and students in demography, sociology, economics, statistics, geography and regional science, public health and health care management, epidemiology, biostatistics, actuarial science, business, and related fields. More information about this series at

3 André Grow Jan Van Bavel Editors Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies Concepts, Methods, and Applications 123

4 Editors André Grow Centre for Sociological Research University of Leuven (KU Leuven) Leuven, Belgium Jan Van Bavel Centre for Sociological Research University of Leuven (KU Leuven) Leuven, Belgium ISSN ISSN (electronic) The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Library of Congress Control Number: Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland

5 Preface This book contains a selection of papers that have been presented at the workshop Recent Developments and Future Directions in Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies that we organized at the University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium, September All papers have been revised after the workshop and accepted after having been peer-reviewed. The workshop was organized in the context of the project Implications of the Shifting Gender Balance in Education for Reproductive Behaviour in Europe and received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union s Seventh Framework Programme (FP/ )/ERC Grant Agreement no for the GENDER- BALL project, the Concerted Research Action New Approaches to the Social Dynamics of Long Term Fertility Change (KU Leuven grant), and the Scientific Research Group Historical Demography (Research Foundation Flanders). We are grateful for the support from the financing institutions. We would also like to thank Francesco Billari for his inspiring concluding talk; the other members of the scientific committee, Koenraad Matthys, Geert Molenberghs, Giovanni Samaey, and Geert Verbeke, for their contributions to the workshop; and Martine Parton and Marina Franckx for their help with the organization. Finally, we would like to thank the reviewers for their help with assessing the contributions to this book. Leuven, Belgium André Grow 2016 Jan Van Bavel v

7 Contents Part I Perspectives on Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies 1 Introduction: Agent-Based Modelling as a Tool to Advance Evolutionary Population Theory... 3 Jan Van Bavel and André Grow 2 Model-Based Demography: Towards a Research Agenda Daniel Courgeau, Jakub Bijak, Robert Franck, and Eric Silverman 3 The Role of Social Interactions in Demography: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach Alexia Prskawetz Part II Designing, Analysing, and Reporting Agent-Based Models 4 Agent-Based Computational Demography and Microsimulation Using JAS-mine Matteo Richiardi and Ross E. Richardson 5 Simulating Synthetic Life Courses of Individuals and Couples, and Mate Matching Sabine Zinn 6 Using Survey Data for Agent-Based Modeling: Design and Challenges in a Model of Armed Conflict and Population Change Nathalie E. Williams, Michelle L. O Brien, and Xiaozheng Yao vii

8 viii Contents 7 Regression Metamodels for Sensitivity Analysis in Agent-Based Computational Demography André Grow 8 Design and Analysis of Demographic Simulations Jason Hilton and Jakub Bijak 9 How to Describe Agent-Based Models in Population Studies? Jürgen Groeneveld, Anna Klabunde, Michelle L. O Brien, and André Grow Part III Modelling Decision Processes 10 The Decision to Emigrate: A Simulation Model Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour Frans Willekens 11 Deciding to Disclose: A Decision Theoretic Agent Model of Pregnancy and Alcohol Misuse Jonathan Gray, Jakub Bijak, and Seth Bullock Part IV Family Formation and Fertility 12 An Agent-Based Model of Sex Ratio at Birth Distortions Ridhi Kashyap and Francisco Villavicencio 13 Exploring the Role of Communication in Shaping Fertility Transition Patterns in Space and Time Sebastian Klüsener, Francesco Scalone, and Martin Dribe 14 Feedback Mechanisms in the Postponement of Fertility in Spain Daniel Ciganda and Francisco Villavicencio Part V Health, Mortality, and Support in Old Age 15 Linking Income, Transfers, and Social Support in an Agent-Based Family Exchange Model Fanny A. Kluge and Tobias C. Vogt 16 Agent-Based Modelling to Inform Health Intervention Strategies: The Case of Severe Acute Malnutrition in Children in High-Burden Low-Income Countries Hedwig Deconinck, Carine Van Malderen, Niko Speybroeck, Jean Macq, and Jean-Christophe Chiem 17 Exploring Contingent Inequalities: Building the Theoretical Health Inequality Model Michael Wolfson, Steve Gribble, and Reed Beall

9 Contributors Reed Beall University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada Jakub Bijak Department of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK Seth Bullock Department of Computer Science, University of Bristol, UK Jean-Christophe Chiem Institut de recherche santé et société, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium Daniel Ciganda Department of Political and Social Sciences, Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona, Spain Daniel Courgeau Institut national d études démographiques, Paris, France Hedwig Deconinck Institut de recherche santé et société, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium Martin Dribe Centre for Economic Demography, Lund University, Lund, Sweden Robert Franck Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Jonathan Gray Department of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK Steve Gribble University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada Jürgen Groeneveld Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ, Leipzig, Germany André Grow Centre for Sociological Research, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Leuven, Belgium Jason Hilton University of Southampton, Southampton, UK ix

10 x Contributors Ridhi Kashyap Department of Sociology and Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany Anna Klabunde Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany Sebastian Klüsener Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany Fanny A. Kluge Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany Jean Macq Institut de recherche santé et société, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium Michelle L. O Brien Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Alexia Prskawetz Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW,WIC), Vienna, Austria Ross E. Richardson Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Matteo Richiardi Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Nuffield College, Oxford, UK Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri, Italy Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Torino, Turin, Italy Francesco Scalone Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy Eric Silverman School of Computing, Teesside University, Middlesbrough, UK Niko Speybroeck Institut de recherche santé et société, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium Jan Van Bavel Centre for Sociological Research, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Leuven, Belgium

11 Contributors xi Carine Van Malderen Institut de recherche santé et société, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium Francisco Villavicencio Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, Odense, Denmark Tobias C. Vogt Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany Frans Willekens Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, The Netherlands Nathalie E. Williams Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Michael Wolfson University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada Xiaozheng Yao Virginia Tech University, Blacksburg, VA, USA Sabine Zinn National Educational Panel Study, Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories, Bamberg, Germany Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

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