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1 ScienceTheme#4: Climateimpactsonland8use and land8coverchange AndrewMilliken StakeholderOutreachandSciencePlanningMeeting,January2013 NorthAtlanticLandscapeConservationCoordinator,U.S.FishandWildlife
2 Landscape)Conservation)Cooperatives: Geographic)Areas)and)Objective LCCsFundamental Objective To#define,#design,#and help#partners#deliver landscapes#that#can sustain#natural#and cultural#resources#at desired#levels nationwide. StakeholderOutreachandSciencePlanningMeeting,January2013
3 LCC&Partners Stakeholder&Outreach&and&Science&Planning&Meeting,&January&2013
4 Examples)of)Decisions)of)LCC Stakeholders Given)a)regional)context)of)widespread)land)use)change and)development)and)a)changing)climate,)and)goals)of sustaining)fish)and)wildlife)populations)and)their ecosystems: Land%protection:!what)areas)are)most)important)to protect)to)allow)systems)to)persist)and)adapt)to)change? Land%management:!how)should)current)natural)areas)be managed)to)help)them)persist)and)adapt? Ecological%restoration:%where)should)efforts)to)restore degraded)ecosystems)be)focused? Stakeholder)Outreach)and)Science)Planning)Meeting,)January)2013
5 Science&Needs&to&Address& Stakeholder&Questions What(is(the(current(capacity(of(the(landscape to(sustain(wildlife(populations(and ecosystems? How(will(climate(change(and(land(use(change affect(future(capacity(of(the(landscape(to support(wildlife(and(ecosystems? How(can(this(scientific(information(be organized(and(synthesized(to(support(decision making? Stakeholder(Outreach(and(Science(Planning(Meeting,(January(2013
6 Foundational Products Habitat Classification Terrestrial RCN Project of Northeast state fish & wildlife agencies NatureServe/TNC - NE Wildlife Habitat Classification & Mapping Project NLCD 24 - Developed, High Intensity Barren Land Unconsolidated Shore Deciduous Forest Evergreen Forest Mixed Forest Scrub/Shrub Grassland/Herbaceous Pasture/Hay Cultivated Crops Woody Wetlands Emergent Herbaceous Wetland Palustrine Emergent Wetland (Persistent) 5 LCC#and#CSC#expanding#classification# and#map#into#canada Stakeholder3Outreach3and3Science3Planning3Meeting,3January32013 Hierarchical classification 1443habitat systems
7 Selecting and Using Representative Species Northeast,regional,approach,for,surrogate species...a,species,whose,habitat,needs,,ecosystem function,,or,management,responses,are,similar to,a,group,of,other,species. assumption:,conservation,planning,and,actions for,a,representative,species,will,also,address the,needs,of,other,species,in,that,group. To,help,guide,strategic,decisions,about,how much'of,what,habitat,conservation,actions,are needed,where,to,sustain,populations Stakeholder,Outreach,and,Science,Planning,Meeting,,January,2013
8 Case%study:% Designing'Sustainable'Landscapes University%of%Massachusetts Amherst OneofthefirstNorthAtlanticLCCscience projects(initiated2010) Developingamodelingframeworkanddecision supporttoolsforconservation,management, andrestorationgivencurrentconditionsand futureforecasts In2012,expandedfrom3pilotareastofull Northeast StakeholderOutreachandSciencePlanningMeeting,January2013
9 In three pilot areas: Three(workshops,(October(2012: Increase(understanding among(conservation(decision makers Actively(involve(potential users(to(make(decision support(tools(relevant(and useful Begin(a(longEterm collaboration(on(shared conservation(efforts(across(a broad(landscape ( ( Engaging Managers in Designing DSTs Stakeholder(Outreach(and(Science(Planning(Meeting,(January(2013 Pilot study areas
10 The Designing Sustainable Landscapes Project Assess the capability of current and potential future landscapes to provide integral ecosystems and suitable habitat for a suite of representative species, and provide guidance for strategic habitat conservation Landscape Change Assessment Design = LCAD Model
11 The Designing Sustainable Landscapes Team Kevin McGarigal Brad Compton Bill Deluca Liz Willey Contributors: Scott Schwenk Curt Griffin Scott Jackson Carly Chandler Janice Zepko Katie Blake Joanna Grand Ethan Plunkett
12 The Designing Sustainable Landscapes Project Phase I, 2012 Kennebec, middle Connecticut, and Pocomoke/Nanticoke watersheds Phase II, northeastern states
13 The LCAD model Ecological Settings Abiotic: Temperature (2) Energy (1) Moisture & hydrology (3) Chemical & physical substrate (3) Physical disturbance (2) Vegetation: Potential dominant life form Above-ground biomass Tree diameter (qmd) Stem density Anthropogenic: Traffic Development (2) Impervious Barriers (2)
14 Fish Landscape Change Hydrology Succession Ecological Settings Drivers: Urban growth Sea level rise Natural disturbance Anthro. disturbance Scenarios: SRES Other uncertainty
15 Fish Landscape Change Hydrology Succession Ecological Settings Drivers: Urban growth Sea level rise Natural disturbance Anthro. disturbance Scenarios: SRES Other uncertainty Landscape Assessment Species Climate-habitat capability index Ecosystems Index of Ecological Integrity (IEI)
16 Fish Landscape Change Hydrology Succession Ecological Settings Drivers: Urban growth Sea level rise Natural disturbance Anthro. disturbance Scenarios: SRES Other uncertainty Landscape Assessment Species Climate-habitat capability index Ecosystems Index of Ecological Integrity (IEI) Conservation scenarios Landscape Design
17 Fish Hydrology Climate Landscape Change Succession Ecological Settings Drivers: Urban growth Sea level rise Natural disturbance Anthro. disturbance Scenarios: SRES Other uncertainty Landscape Assessment Species Climate-habitat capability index Ecosystems Index of Ecological Integrity (IEI) Conservation scenarios Landscape Design
18 Landscape change, SRES A2 scenario Stochastic, dynamic landscape change simulation at 10-year intervals
19 Species Habitat + Climate, 2080 Zone of Persistence = Persistent future habitat and suitable climate within the species current optimal area
20 Ecological Impact, 2080 Larger negative values indicate effective loss of ecological integrity between current and future timesteps.
21 Case%study:% Designing'Sustainable'Landscapes University%of%Massachusetts Amherst NextStepsforLandUse/LandCover Incorporateothermajordrivers(e.g.forest management) Incorporateforestageandstructure,early successionalandagriculturallands Trackchangesinlanduse/landcover? ComparetoandincreaseconsistencywithLCC NationalNetwork StakeholderOutreachandSciencePlanningMeeting,January2013
22 Project website: Overview Technical documents Data Contacts: Brad Compton: Andrew Milliken:
23
I ll be talking about the Designing Sustainable Landscapes project today. This is a large integrated modeling effort our group at UMass has been
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