Adapting to Climate Change California Resources for Local Governments

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1 Department of Water Resources Adapting to Climate Change California Resources for Local Governments Adrienne I. Greve Assistant Professor, City & Regional Planning Cal Poly - San Luis Obispo agreve@calpoly.edu

2 California State Policy & Guidance Policy: EO S 03 05, AB 32, SB 97, SB 375, SB 732, General Plan Guidelines State agency guidance (a sample) Dept. of Water Resources (2011) Dept. of Public Health (2012 Dept. of Transportation (2006) Dept. of Forestry and Fire Protection (2008) Dept. of Fish and Game (2011) Emergency Management Agency (2010) Natural Resources Agency (2009) California Energy Commission (many) 2

3 CA Adaptation Policy Guide

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5 Cal-adapt California Energy Commission, 2011

6 Adaptation for Local Jurisdictions Diversity Biophysical Setting Jurisdiction Characteristics Social/Political Feasibility Jurisdiction Control Scale Uncertainty Resources (staff, funding, expertise)

7 State of Practice Local government Regional planning entities State agencies and organizations

8 Adaptation Policy Guide Adapted from Boswell, Greve, & Seale, 2012

9 APG Structure

10 Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Potential Impact Risk & Onset Vulnerability Capacity to Adapt

11 Policy in the Face of Uncertainty

12 Prioritizing Strategies 12

13 We want to hear from you!!! Public Review Draft California Climate Change ADAPTATION POLICY GUIDE

14 Thank You! Contact: Adrienne I. Greve City & Regional Planning Department California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

15 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Contrasting Approaches to Climate Change and Hazards. Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Hazards Planning. Gavin Smith, Ph.D., AICP Associate Research Professor Department of City and Regional Planning University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Executive Director Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence Coastal Hazard Center American Planning Association Conference, Los Angeles, California April 2012 Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

16 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Presentation Overview Climate Change Adaptation and Hazards Management Hazard Mitigation Disaster Recovery Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Hazards Mississippi Case Study Recommendations for the Planning Community Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

17 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Hazards (Glavovic and Smith 2012, Springer) Introduction Climate Change Adaptation: Theory and Practice Synthesis of scholarship and experience The Nature of Disasters and the Role of Natural Hazards in Building Resilient Communities Climate change adaptation and risk reduction in highland Peru (Anthony Oliver-Smith) Castles on sand: the shifting sources of flood risk and the implications for flood governance (Iain White) Planning for resilient coastal communities: the emerging practice and future directions (Tim Beatley) Resilience and Adaptation: the emergence of local action in California, USA (Bill Simbieda) Rising to the challenge: planning for adaptation in the age of climate change (Phil Berke) Case Studies: Lessons from Natural Hazards Applying Hurricane Recovery Lessons in the U.S. to Climate Change Adaptation: Hurricanes Fran and Floyd in North Carolina, USA (Gavin Smith) The Manawatu floods in New Zealand: Integrating flood risk reduction and climate change adaptation (Bruce Glavovic) Drought and Bushfires in Australia (Karyn Bosomworth, John Handmer and Steven Dovers) Natural coastal hazards planning: the 2009 tsunami and lessons for climate change adaptation in Samoa (Michelle Daly) Disaster Recovery in Coastal Mississippi (USA): Lesson Drawing from Hurricanes Camille and Katrina (Gavin Smith) New Orleans and Hurricane Katrina (Bruce Glavovic) Conclusions: Taking Action to Address Climate Change Adaptation Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

18 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Disaster Recovery in Coastal Mississippi (USA): Lesson Drawing from Hurricanes Camille and Katrina Risk Communication Role of the Design Community in Recovery New Urbanists Emergency Housing Building Codes versus Land Use Community Resettlement Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

19 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Use of Models to Inform the Public Pre-event Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

20 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Risk Communication Post-Disaster Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

21 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Role of the Design Community in Recovery: Mississippi Renewal Forum Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

22 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Post-Disaster Emergency Housing: The Mississippi Alternative Housing Program Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

23 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Post-Disaster Resettlement Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

24 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Building Codes and Land Use Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

25 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Hazards Management Lessons in Mississippi The Remapping of Mississippi s Coastal Floodplains: Implications for Risk Communications, Hazard Mitigation, Disaster Recovery, and Adaptation. Secondary policy impacts, migration of coastal residents, and the construction of new inland communities. The role of the design community in disaster recovery, hazard mitigation, and climate change adaptation. The adoption of new building codes and flood ordinances is not enough; these techniques should be coupled with land use measures. The Widespread use of Post-Disaster Temporary and Transitional Housing (new approach not adopted by FEMA). Creating and Sustaining a State Disaster Recovery Organization Committed to Hazards Management and Related Elements of Climate Change Adaptation. Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

26 Research Lead: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Hazards Management, Climate Change, and Land Use Planners: Key Points of Intervention Large-Scale Resettlement in Coastal Communities and Cities (State and Local Planners) Documentation of Coastal Change (Planners in the Academy, State and Local Planners, Planning Consultants) Coordination with the Research Community (Planners in the Academy, APA Hazards Center) Outreach and Engagement (Planning Community) Application of Risk Assessment and Analytical Tools (State and Local Planners, Planning Consultants) Linking Climate Change and Hazards Management Programs (NOAA, EPA, FEMA, State and Local planners, APA Hazard Center) APA Hazard Mitigation and Disaster Recovery Interest Group Education Lead: Jackson State University, Mississippi A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

27 2012 National Planning Conference Los Angeles 15 April Karl Kim, Ph.D. Professor of Urban & Regional Planning Director, Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance Program University of Hawaii

28 Background on NDPTC Climate Change and Planning Research Hawaii, Pacific Islands, Asia-Pacific Region Mainstreaming Adaptation Climate into Codes The Lure of the Local Living with Water New models for collaboration

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32 EMRTC NERRTC NCBRT CTOS CDP TTCI NDPTC Explosive and incendiary attacks Incident Management, EMS, Hazmat, Public Works, Threat and Risk Assessment, Senior Executive Programs Prevention, deterrence and response to terrorist acts, chem-/bio-/ag-related terrorism response Prevention, deterrence and response to radiological/nuclear attacks Prevention, deterrence and response to Chemical, biological and nuclear attacks involving hazmat Transportation research and testing organization, providing emerging technology solutions for the railway industry Monitoring natural hazards, evaluating risks to urban populations and planning for the response, recovery and reconstruction of areas following a disaster.

33 The need to engage fully in disaster risk reduction has never been more pressing Disaster risk reduction is about stronger building codes, sound land use planning, better early warning systems, environmental management and evacuation plans and, above all, education. Its about making communities and individuals aware of their risks and how they can reduce their vulnerability. We have a moral, social, and economic obligation to act now in building resilient communities

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35 1. Where are the hazards located? 2. Where are assets located? People Jobs Economic activity Critical urban infrastructure 3. Vulnerabilities - susceptibility - coping capacity (Birkmann Framework)

36 Tsunami Coastal Resilience Coastal Flooding Hurricanes/Cyclones Volcanoes Social Media Rapid Damage Assessment Senior Caregivers Security Professionals Community Leaders Disaster Recovery ndptc.hawaii.edu

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38 Hurricane Earthquake Tsunami Volcanoes Flooding Landslides Drought Wildfire

39 Hurricanes Storm Surge Flash Flooding

40 Sewer Failure: Infrastructural damagepublic health threat Waste Management: Infrastructure capacitypublic health threat, public response concerns Shaking Ground: Structural, property, infrastructural damagepersonal injury threat High Winds: Structural, property damage- personal injury threat Airborne Debris: Structural, property damage- personal injury threat Water supply Failure: Infrastructural damagepublic health threat TSUNAMI FLOODING HURRICANE Coastal Surge: Structural, property, infrastructural damagepersonal injury threat Waterborne Debris: structural damage, property damage, personal injury threat EARTHQUAKE VOLCANO Power Grid Failure: infrastructure damagesafety concerns, loss of communication networks Food Supply Disruption: result of infrastructure failure- public health threat Telecom Grid Failure: infrastructure failure, battery limitations, interoperabilitydisrupted response network Air/Water Borne Pollutants: Infrastructural damage-public health threat Transit Network Failure: infrastructure failure/ disruption- public response concerns Inland High Water: Structural, property, infrastructural damagepersonal injury threat

41 COUNTY DISTRICT COMMUNITY SITE/BUILDING

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46 3/11/11 14:46 3 min duration Subduction zone 300 km fault line M 9 earthquake Largest recorded in Japan First tsunami waves min 40 m wave m average 15,850 killed 3,281 missing 5,994 injured 128,581 bldg destroyed

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48 Ofunato City, Iwate Pref. Sendai City, Miyagi Pref. Inundated Area Hazard Maps Source: Cabinet Office

49 unami Height (m) Ibaraki Fukushima Miyagi Iwate Projection Sanriku-oki Miyagi-ken-oki Meiji-Sanriku This Disaster Tohoku-oki 10 5 Aomori 23

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52 Tsunami Impact on Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Switchyard Damaged Submersion of Pumping Stations Lower Floors Flooding EDGs Fuel Contamination TI NI

53 $ Billion

54 Legend F Mix Use Index Miles

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58 Negative Binomial (NB) Expected number of casualties/losses, Y i, occurring at grid i with a set of q predictor variables, X i1, to X iq : Function (Y i ) = X i1 + 2 X i2 + + q X iq Probability that a grid defined by a known set of predictor variables, X i1, X i2,..., X iq, experiences Y i = y i losses: Pr(Y i = y i ;, d) = (y i + d 1)! y i! + ( d 1)! y i (1 + ) y i + k ; y i = 0, 1, , 2..., q for the negative binomial regression estimated using GLM in SAS 32

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64 44.3 % would go up building Of those leaving Waikiki: 34.3% by car, 33.3% on foot, 22.2% by bus

65 All Groups Visitors and Residents Age Groups

66 Accommodating people preferring vertical evacuation or not evacuating Group Tourists Worker Residents Oahu Residents Total (person) Going up Structure Staying and Watching Don t Know Accommodating people Unable to safely evacuate from Waikiki Description North North east South east Total (person) Deficient Capacity for LOS B (veh/hr) Bus trips not able to evacuate Car trips not able to evacuate Total Shelter Space Required 95,257

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68 Map layers Waikiki Street TAZ Centroide Towards North Exit Towards North East Exit Towards South East Exit Population Distribution Exit Points Exit North Exit North East Exit South East Miles

69 Map layers Waikiki Street Total Flow Miles

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71 Regularly inundated (Low) Below MHHW (El. < cm) MHHW to MHHW + 6cm (El cm to cm) MHHW to MHHW + 13cm (El cm to cm) MHHW to MHHW + 21cm (El cm to cm) MHHW to MHHW + 30cm (El cm to cm) Regularly inundated (High) Below MHHW (El. < cm) MHHW to MHHW + 6.5cm (El cm to cm) MHHW to MHHW cm (El cm to cm) MHHW to MHHW + 31cm (El cm to cm) MHHW to MHHW cm (El cm to cm) At-risk (Low) MHHW to HOWL (El cm to cm MHHW + 6cm to HOWL + 6cm (El cm to cm) MHHW + 13cm to HOWL + 13cm (El cm to cm) MHHW + 21cm to HOWL + 21cm (El cm to cm) MHHW + 30cm to HOWL + 30cm (El cm to cm) At-risk (High) MHHW to HOWL (El cm to cm MHHW + 6.5cm to HOWL + 6.5cm (El cm to cm) MHHW cm to HOWL cm (El cm to cm) MHHW + 31cm to HOWL + 31cm (El cm to cm) MHHW cm to HOWL cm (El cm to cm)

72 Data Sea Level Scenarios MHHW and HOWL Coastline Shapefiles (road, parcel, networks, land use) Elevation Source ICF International. (2007). The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure, Phase 1 Final Report: the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina and Virginia: Study Goals and Methodologies. Elevations on Station Datum National Ocean Service (NOAA) for Station number (Honolulu Harbor, Oahu). Epoch: NOAA Composite Shoreline ml The State of Hawaii GIS Data and the City and County of Honolulu GIS Data. NGA LIDAR = National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Light

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79 At Risk High Estimate (2100) based on HOWL m

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81 Infrastructure Freeways Unit Lineal feet Total 356,798 Main Arteries Lineal feet 819,320 Minor Roads Lineal feet 3,618,419 Airport Square feet 101,282,975 Harbor Square feet 22,737,943 Overall Area Square feet 1,606,092,470

82 Mobility: What is the impact of SLR on the household travel from one location to another in terms of speed, travel time, cost? Accessibility: What is the impact on different modes (auto, bus, rail, bike, pedestrian, etc.)? Safety: Who is at risk of increased mortality and morbidity and exposure? Development: What is impact on land use, development, growth, change, urbanization? Vulnerable at-risk, EJ Populations?

83 Hazard Mitigation: Actions taken to reduce risks of harm (loss of life, injury, property damage, disruption) from hazards ADAPTATION: Growth/Exploitation Conservation Collapse/Release Renewal/Reorganizat ion (Holling & Gunderson, 2002)

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86 Do Nothing Protect Elevate Retreat Transform 1. Analytical Framework(s) 2. Data Requirements 3. Analytical Capabilities 4. Physical Science + Social Science

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88 Urbanization Coastal Development Climate Impacts Sea Level Rise Coastal Flooding Poverty Living with Water Floating Structures Water Resource Management Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation Integrating Environment into Design

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91 Partner with ICLEI-Korea and others Community Resilience Training Initiative Coastal Hazards, Sea Level Rise, Adaptation Flood Risk Reduction University-Government-Community Training, Exercises, Drills focus on resilient sustainable cities.

92 Lure of the Local Go to threats/risks/hazards Coding (Building, Land Use, etc.) Data integration for risk reduction Transport/Land Use/Development Critical Infrastructure Data Rich Environment Interactions between transport facilities, land use, development, especially in coastal area COLLABORATION for ADAPTATION Science + Social Science = PLANNING DANCE of Black Dragon + Phoenix

93 Prof. Karl Kim, Executive Director National Disaster Preparedness Training Center University of Hawaii Department of Urban & Regional Planning 828 Fort Street Mall Suite 320 Honolulu, Hawaii Tel: Website: ndptc.hawaii.edu