Robert Cervero The Accessible Metropolis. Ruimteconferentie 2011

Transcription

1 Robert Cervero The Accessible Metropolis Ruimteconferentie 2011

2 The Accessible Metropolis Global Perspectives Robert Cervero University of California, Berkeley

3 The Accessible Metropolis Accessibility: Ability to efficiently & conveniently reach places you want to go Enhanced by: Mobility (speed between pts. A & B) Proximity (distance from pts. A & B) A A B B Focus on People, Places, Interaction versus Movement & Consumption

4 LIMITS OF SUPPLY-SIDE SOLUTIONS Induced Demand Can t t Built Your Way Out of Traffic Congestion In the U.S., 90% of added road capacity gets consumed within 3-5 years due to adjustments in travel & land-use shifts

5 TECHNOLOGIES & TRAVEL Urban form & travel behavior adjust to speedenhancing technologies: Zahavi and Talvitie (1980): globally, a constant amount of time and budget devoted to urban mobility on average, ~ 1 hour/day (TIME BUDGET THEORY) U.K.: hours/year/capita; increase in number & length of trips (Metz, 2008) Chief impact of faster technologies: Increased regional access e.g., expand trade-sheds, market-sheds, labour-sheds, information & social networks.

6 Technology Alone Won t Reverse Global Warming U.S. Projections: % 140% 130% 120% 2020 New 35 MPG 2005 = 100% 110% 100% 90% 80% 1990 Fuel GHG: -10% 70% 60% CO2 Target CO2 50% 40% Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and sources cited in Growing Cooler.

7 Technology Alone Won t Reverse Global Warming U.S. Projections: % 140% 130% 120% VMT VKT 2020 New 35 MPG 2005 = 100% 110% 100% 90% 80% 1990 CO2 Fuel GHG: -10% 70% 60% CO2 Target 50% 40% Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and sources cited in Growing Cooler.

8 Transportation CO 2 Vehicles SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGIES Fuels VKT SUSTAINABLE URBANISM

9 Polycentric Berlin Monocentric Hong Kong Copenhagen s Linear Finger Mumbai Plan Land Use/Transport Integration Land Use as an end Transport as a means Smart Growth Land Use Transport

10 COPENHAGEN Guided Decentralization From Vision to Plan to Execution Ballerup Koge

11 Stockholm: An Accessible Metropolis TOD & Necklace of Pearls Kista: Technopole SingleFamily Housing Industrial Zone Vällingby Vällingby Green Area Multi-family Housing Retail Core SingleFamily Housing SingleFamily Housing

12 VKT (000s)/capita/year 8.5 Los Angeles 20.4 % Trips: Walk/Bike 4 27 Ped. Fatalities/100K Pop. Workdays Lost to Pollution/Person Stockholm Los Angeles Stockholm Source: The Transit Metropolis, 1998

13 Stockholm s City Plan for 2020 Science City (Greenfield) & Urban Regeneration (Brownfield) Kista Science City Inner-Ring Interconnected by Fast Trams Inner-Ring Tram Hammarby Sjöstad

14 Green TOD A Marriage of TOD & Green Urbanism TOD Mobile Sources Transit Design High-quality transit (trunk & distribution) Station as hub Non-motorized access (bikepaths, ped-ways) Bikesharing/Carsharing Minimal Parking (reduced land consumption, building massing & impervious surfaces) Compact, Mixed Uses Reduced VKT (40%-50%) Green Urbanism Stationary Sources Energy self-sufficient (renewably powered solar, wind turbines) Zero-waste (recycle; re-use; methane digesters; rainwater collection for irrigation & gray-water use) Community gardens (compost, canopies) Buildings: Green Roofs, Orientation (optimal temperatures), Materials (recycled; low impact) Hammarby Sjöstad Reduced CO 2 per Dwelling (22%-32%)

15 Transport Program Congestion Pricing Tramway Skinny Streets/ Traffic Calming Transit Spine Bike-ped Bridge

16 Smaller Carbon Footprint Hammarby Sjöstad Source: Grontmij, AB Environmental Impact in Hammarby Sjöstad. Stockholm. Control Sites Hammarby Sjöstad

17 Accessible Metropolises * Not Anti-Car; Pro-Choice * Often people own cars; just more judicious & discriminate when they drive and take public transport little wasted VKT

18 Sustainable Transport & Urbanism (accessible cityscapes) occur at Multiple Scales Macro Region Meso District/ Sub-region Micro Neighborhood

19 I. Macro Regions as Ecological Units Water-sheds, air-sheds, commuter-sheds, labour-sheds Region Core Monocentric Polycentric

20 Balanced Regional Growth AIMS: Reduce VKT Rationalize Travelsheds Protect & Conserve Land Reduce travel costs/ increase housing affordability (location efficiency)

21 Balanced Growth Downtown Vancouver ,000 jobs 100,000 residents Housing Zone Jobs: CBD VKT/capita of Core Residents ~ 40% regional average

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24 II. Meso-scale: scale: Corridors (the amorphous zone) Natural Travelsheds In U.S., 55%-70% of motorized travel within Km axial corridors Public Transport s Natural Habitat TOC Transit Oriented Corridors TOCs = String of Pearls

25 Curitiba: Cities for People LINEAL GROWTH Trinary: High Rise Mixed Use Corridors

26 Curitiba s Bus-Based TOD

27 Dense, Mixed-Use Corridors allow efficient 2-way travel flows ¼ Mile

28 Curitiba How Densities Are Organized Matters! Population São Paulo 3 mill. 16 mill. Transit Trips/ Capita Heavy Rail LRT BRT

29 Persons/km 2 Transit trips/ capita/year VKT/capita/ year Curitiba Brasíli liá 3, ,900 16,700 Brasíli liá Curitiba

30 III. Micro-scale: Neighborhoods (mix it up) Civic Residential Neighborhood Commercial Livable Cities Integrate the Public & Private Realms Before After

31 Built Environments Matter Compact, mixeduse, ped-friendly development: 30%-40% less VKT & CO 2 than sprawl San San Francisco Bay Bay Area Most Urbanized communities have smallest footprint 31

32 Adaptive Re-Use Dallas: LRT TODs Mockingbird Station Before After Before Plano Transit Village After

33 Adaptive Re-Use: Recycling Dis-Used Urban Spaces Stapleton Airport Redevelopment, Denver CO

34 1999 Compact Stapleton

35 2009 Downtown Denver

36 same

37 Stapleton Airport Redevelopment, Denver CO

38 Singapore: Mixing Spatial Planning & Technologies PLUS Getting the Prices Right Singapore: The Constellation Plan

39 Getting the Prices Right Singapore s Three-Tier Model Fixed Fees: vehicle taxes & surcharges: import duties; registration fee + add-on; quota system; island entry/exit fee Use-Related Fees: fuel taxes; parking surcharges Externality Fees: congestion tolls; annual road tax (by engine size)

40 Singapore: Extended TOD the Last Mile Problem: Bukit Panjang; Sengkang New Towns All housing within 400m of LRT; feeds into MRT

41 Masdar City: UAE

42 ULTRa PRT (Personal Rapid Transit) connects Heathrow s Terminal 5 & Long-Term Car Park. Plans to extend throughout Heathrow

43 Mobility & ICT: Part of an Accessible (& Efficient & Safe) City

44 Cell Phones as Probes/Traffic Information Systems

45 Orange County SR 91 Express Lanes Value & Dynamic Pricing San Diego I-15 I Express Lanes Houston I-10 Katy Freeway

46 Dynamic Parking Pricing SFPark Pilot Program

47 High-Tech Surface Transit Reims Bordeaux Marseille Lyon Branding Hi-Tech Transit

48 Balance, Variety, Choice Sustainable Mobility It s easier to get pollution, than people, out of cars Sustainable Urbanism Also need sustainable Cities & Regions broadly defined. Conservation must be part of the equation

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