Retail Market Analysis Longwood, Florida

Transcription

1 Retail Market Analysis Longwood, Florida Prepared for: City of Longwood Prepared by: Gibbs Planning Group

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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 1 Executive Summary... 1 Background... 3 Methodology... 4 Trade Area... 6 Demographic Characteristics... 8 Tapestry Lifestyles Employment Base TRADE AREA CHARACTERISTICS Location Access Other Shopping Areas Regional Centers Lifestyle Centers Community Centers SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Supportable Retail Table Retail Category Definitions Shopping Center Definitions Rationale Limits of Study APPENDIX... 35

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5 INTRODUCTION Figure 1: Aerial photo of Longwood, Florida. The primary trade area can presently support an additional 201,600 sf of retail and restaurant development. Executive Summary This study finds that Longwood, Florida can presently support up to 201,600 square feet (sf) of additional retail and restaurant development, generating up to $64.4 million in sales. By 2020, the study area(s) will likely be able to support as much as 228,700 sf of total commercial development producing up to $76.9 million in gross sales. This new retail demand could be sufficiently met by the development of a single-site community type shopping center and/or with the partial absorption of new sales by existing businesses and infill development of as many as 70 to 90 new restaurants and stores. New retail development in Longwood can expand the supply of needed goods and services for the existing consumer base of residents, employees and visitors. The supportable retail includes apparel and shoe stores, 6-8 full-service restaurants, 8-10 limited-services restaurants, 7-10 grocery or specialty food stores, 2-3 pharmacies and a variety of other retail. Longwood is located in Seminole County, Florida, 10 miles north of downtown Orlando and eight miles south of Sanford. The study area includes commercial property along the city s two main roadways, SR-434 and US 17-92, as well as the districts on either side of Ronald Reagan Boulevard including a historic district and a newly established transit district served by the SunRail. With over 60,000 boardings at the Longwood Station in the first year of service, there is strong potential for transit-oriented development to increase the residential base in the vicinity and add enough critical mass of retail amenities to redefine the area as a downtown-type district. Similarly, the historic district west of Ronald Reagan contains many charming homes which have been renovated by some retailers into shops; organizing the existing retailers and filling in gaps Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 1.

6 with new retailers along Church Street could result in a shopping experience unlike any other in the Orlando region. Along the commercial corridors, many of the existing shopping centers have lost anchor tenants and wide-spread vacancies find the centers in unfavorable condition. Furthermore, highway conditions and access issues limit the exposure of existing shopping center tenants pushing customers to other competing shopping destinations in nearby communities. However, traffic levels are desirable and contemporary design solutions could improve the function of the shopping centers and regain a captive audience of consumers who would prefer to shop and dine closer to home. Table 1: 2015 and 2020 Supportable Retail Retailers Retail Category 2015 Estimated Supportable SF 2020 Estimated Supportable SF No. of Stores Apparel & Shoe Stores 31,400 sf 34,900 sf Book & Music Stores 3,300 sf 3,600 sf 1-2 Department Store Merchandise 20,500 sf 22,500 sf 4-5 Electronics & Appliance Stores 1,300 sf 1,800 sf 1 Furniture Stores 1,200 sf 1,400 sf 1 General Merchandise Stores 8,900 sf 9,500 sf 2-3 Grocery & Specialty Food/Drink Stores 29,000 sf 33,000 sf 7-10 Hardware & Garden Supply Stores 6,800 sf 9,900 sf 3-4 Jewelry Stores 1,600 sf 1,900 sf 1-2 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 9,200 sf 10,200 sf 5-6 Office Supplies & Gift Stores 6,000 sf 6,400 sf 3-4 Pharmacy 12,600 sf 16,200 sf 2-3 Sporting Goods & Hobby Stores 2,400 sf 2,500 sf 1-2 Retailer Totals 134,200 sf 153,800 sf Restaurants Bars, Breweries & Pubs 5,800 sf 6,200 sf 2-3 Full-Service Restaurants 27,500 sf 30,400 sf 6-8 Limited-Service Eating Places 25,700 sf 29,500 sf 8-10 Special Food Services 8,400 sf 8,800 sf 6-8 Restaurant Totals 67,400 sf 74,900 sf Retailer & Restaurant Totals 201,600 sf 228,700 sf Table 1: By 2020, Longwood could support up to 228,700 sf of new retail and restaurant development. This study further finds that the Longwood primary trade area includes 96,200 people and is expected to grow to 99,400 by 2020, at an annual rate of 0.65 percent. Likewise, the current 2015 number of households is 38,500, growing to 39,800 in five years. Incomes in the primary trade area average $78,100 annually, and are estimated to increase to $88,200 by 2020; the 2015 median household income is $57,500 and estimated to increase to $64,700 in five years. Moreover, 37.0 percent of trade area households earn above $75,000 per year. The primary trade area s average household size is 2.49 persons and the median age is 41.8 years old. Housing 2. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

7 favors owner-occupied units, which comprise 59.1 percent of all housing, compared to 32.1 percent renter-occupied households; the vacancy rate is 8.8 percent. The primary trade area has a labor base of 48,800 employees. Figure 2: Longwood (shown in purple) is located along I-4, in between Orlando and Sanford. The study area includes commercial development along SR-434 and US 17-92, as well as the historic district and transit village. Background (GPG) has been retained by The City of Longwood to conduct a retail market analysis and implementation plan. A number of retail vacancies plague the commercial corridors, while new opportunities for commercial development exist near the new SunRail station. The city hopes to actively market the historic district, the transit village and a number of vacant parcels for redevelopment or infill. GPG addressed the following issues in this study: What is the existing and planned retail market in the study and trade area? What is the primary trade area for Longwood, Florida? What are the population, demographic and lifestyle characteristics in the primary trade area, currently and projected for 2020? What is the current and projected growth for retail expenditures in the primary trade area, now and for the next five years? How much additional retail square footage is supportable in the Longwood study area(s) and what retail uses should be encouraged? What sales volumes can development achieve in or near the study area? Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 3.

8 Figure 3: Longwood is located 10 miles outside of downtown Orlando. Opened in 2014, SunRail (route shown in red) is the region s mass transit system, which takes about 30 minutes to reach downtown from the study area. Methodology To address the above issues, GPG defined a trade area that would serve the retail in the study area based on geographic and topographic considerations, traffic access/flow in the area, relative retail strengths and weaknesses of the competition, concentrations of daytime employment and the retail gravitation in the market, as well as our experience defining trade areas for similar markets. Population, consumer expenditure and demographic characteristics of trade area residents were collected by census tracts from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Esri (Environmental Systems Research Institute). Finally, based on the projected consumer expenditure capture (demand) in the primary trade area of the gross consumer expenditure by retail category, less the current existing retail sales (supply) by retail category, GPG projects the potential net consumer expenditure (gap) available to support existing and new development. The projected net consumer expenditure capture is based on household expenditure and demographic characteristics of the primary trade area, existing and 4. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

9 planned retail competition, traffic and retail gravitational patterns and GPG s qualitative assessment of the Longwood study area. Net potential captured consumer expenditure (gap) is equated to potential retail development square footage, with the help of retail sales per square foot data provided by Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers (Urban Land Institute and International Council of Shopping Centers), qualitatively adjusted to fit the urbanism and demographics of the study area. Figure 4: Existing retailers in the transit village and historic district include a bar, sandwich shop, hair salon, arts and crafts and a doll shop. With a critical mass of retailers, these adjacent areas could become a downtown-type setting for Longwood. For the purposes of this study, GPG has assumed the following: Other major community retail centers may be planned or proposed, but only the existing retail is considered for this study. The quality of the existing retail trade in the study area is projected to remain constant. Gains in future average retail sales per sf reflect higher sales per sf in newly developed retail and selected increases in sales per sf by individual retail categories. No major regional retail centers will be developed within the trade area of this analysis through 2020 for the purposes of this study. The region s economy will continue at normal or above normal ranges of employment, inflation, retail demand and growth. The subject site(s) is properly zoned to support infill and redevelopment projects with current and innovative standards, and the existing infrastructure (water, sewer, arterial roadways, etc.) can support additional commercial development. Annual population growth for the primary trade area is estimated to be 0.65 percent throughout the five-year period of this study. Employment distribution is projected to remain constant, without a spike or decline in employment by NAICS categories. The projected lease and vacancy rate model is based on our proprietary econometric model of the relationship between changes in employment and changes in vacancy and Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 5.

10 lease rates. Data was gathered from the U.S. Census Bureau, Esri, CBRE and brokerage services. Any new construction in the study area will be planned, designed, built and managed to the best practices of the American Institute of Architects, American Planning Association, American Society of Landscape Architects, Congress for the New Urbanism, International Council of Shopping Centers and The Urban Land Institute. Parking for new development projects or businesses will meet or exceed the industry standards. Visibility of any new retail is also assumed very good, with signage as required to assure easy visibility of the retailers. Infill or redevelopment projects in the study area will open with sustainable amounts of retail and anchor tenants, at planned intervals and per industry standards. Trade Area Figure 5: The primary trade area consists of over 46 square miles of neighborhoods with convenient access to SR-434 and US Based on GPG s site evaluation, the existing retail hubs, population clusters, highway access, and the retail gravitation in the market, as well as our experience defining trade areas for similar communities throughout the United States, it was determined that consumers in the primary trade area generate demand to support a variety of retailers. This potential will continue to increase over the next five years, sustained by an annual population growth rate of 0.65 percent and average household income growth of 2.4 percent. The primary trade area is the consumer market where the study area has a significant competitive advantage because of access, design, lack of quality competition and traffic and commute patterns. This competitive advantage equates to a potential domination of the capture of consumer expenditure by the retailers in the study area. GPG defined a primary trade area by 6. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

11 topography, vehicular access, strength of retail competition and residential growth patterns instead of standardized drive-times. Consumers inside the primary trade area will account for up to 60 to 70 percent of the total sales captured by retailers in Longwood. The following borders approximately delineate the primary trade area: North Lake Mary Boulevard South Central Parkway East Lake Jessup West Hunt Club Boulevard Figure 6: This study also defines a near neighborhood and total trade area. The near neighborhood trade area is comprised of residents who most frequently shop downtown retailers. The total trade area represents residents likely to visit downtown, but it will not be their primary shopping destination. Furthermore, a near neighborhood trade area (Figure 6) was established to differentiate the characteristics of those living closest to the site. These residents comprise over one-quarter of the Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 7.

12 primary trade area population, but due to their proximity are likely to visit the area regularly for a wider variety of goods and services. This group of patrons primarily consists of the city of Longwood and other nearby neighborhoods within a 5-minute drive of the study site. These residents may consider the study site to be their primary shopping destination and are the most likely customers to arrive by walking, biking or public transportation. Last, the total or community trade (Figure 6) area extends in all directions to include residents and workers who because of convenient access may currently or in the future contribute expenditure to study site retailers. Due to the heavy traffic on I-4 and US 17-92, a number of total trade area residents are familiar with the study area and likely pass through several times a year. The boundaries of the total trade area extend north to include most of eastern Seminole County where convenient access and likely commuting patterns broaden the potential reach of existing and future Longwood retailers. Residents who live in the total, but not within the primary, trade area will shop in Longwood occasionally, but the area will not be their primary shopping destination. Consumer expenditure by these residents will account for 10 to 15 percent of retail sales. Figure 7: Township Plaza is a shopping center located on SR-434 that has suffered since the loss of the center s anchor. Demographic Characteristics Using data from Esri (Environmental Systems Research Institute) and the U.S. Census Bureau, GPG obtained the most recent population and demographic characteristics (2015), and those projected for 2020 for the defined trade areas and the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford Metropolitan Statistical Area. The primary trade area has an estimated 2015 population of 96,200 persons, which will increase at an annual rate 0.65 percent to 99,400 by This annual growth rate is higher than the near neighborhood trade area but is outpaced by the total trade area and the region s robust rate of 1.61 percent. The number of households in the primary trade area is 38,500, holding 2.49 persons per household, and is projected to increase to 39,800 by 2020, a 3.5 percent total increase over the five years. Median household income is $57,500 and is expected to increase to $64,700 in Average income in the primary trade area is $78,100, while 37.0 percent of households earn over $75,000 per year more than the region and near neighborhood trade area figures. The primary trade area displays higher levels of education than the region, as 34.3 percent of residents over the age of 25 have earned a bachelor s degree or higher. The median age is In the total trade area there are 407,300 residents, increasing annually by 0.85 percent to 424,800 by This growth rate is higher than the primary trade area, yet still lower than the state level. The estimated number of households is 163,300 increasing to 170,900 by Median 8. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

13 household income in the area is $56,700 and the average household income is $64,500, both of which are similar to the primary trade area. Educational attainment is also higher than the primary trade area, with 36.4 percent of residents over the age of 25 having earned a bachelor s degree or higher. There are 2.47 persons per household and the median age is Table 2: Demographic Characteristics Characteristics Near Neighborhood Trade Area Primary Trade Area Total Trade Area Orlando Metro Area 2015 Population 25,400 96, ,300 2,284, Population 26,000 99, ,800 2,475, Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.52% 0.65% 0.85% 1.61% 2015 Households 10,100 38, , , Households 10,400 39, , , Projected Annual HH Growth Rate 0.56% 0.71% 0.91% 1.59% Persons Per Household Median Age Median Household Income $56,500 $57,500 $56,700 $49, Average Household Income $70,800 $78,100 $79,000 $67, Median Household Income $62,300 $64,700 $64,500 $56, Average Household Income $79,400 $88,200 $89,500 $76,100 % Households w. incomes $75, % 37.0% 37.2% 30.2% % Bachelor s Degree 19.0% 23.2% 24.3% 19.9% % Graduate or Professional Degree 8.6% 11.1% 12.1% 9.5% Table 2: This side-by-side table compares and contrasts the primary trade area demographic statistics with those of the near neighborhood trade area, the total trade area and the Orlando MSA. Demographic figures from the near neighborhood trade area demonstrate more modest population and economic characteristics, perhaps partially explained by the built out nature of the area. There are currently 25,400 residents in the near neighborhood trade area, increasing to 26,000 persons by 2020 at a rate of 0.56 percent annually. By 2020, the number of households will have grown to 10,400 from 10,100 in 2015 while the persons per household will have decreased marginally from 2.48 to Median income in the near neighborhood trade area is $56,500 and will increase to $62,300 by Similarly, average household income is expected to increase from $70,800 to $79,400 over the five-year period. Approximately 27.6 percent of adults above the age of 25 have earned a bachelor s degree or higher and 33.6 percent of households earn over $75,000 annually. The median age is the highest of the comparison geographies at 42.8 years. The primary trade area demonstrates an expanding housing market. Approximately 91.2 percent of housing units are occupied year-round and the median home value is estimated to be $190,500. Of all households, 59.1 percent are owner-occupied, and that number is expected to Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 9.

14 shrink to 58.5 percent by Renter-occupied households, alternatively, have increased from 28.7 percent in 2010 to 32.1 percent in 2015, and this statistic is projected to continue to grow to 32.5 percent by The vacancy rate is projected to remain about the same with a minor increase. The percentage of housing units valued at over $250,000 is expected to increase from 28.4 percent to 37.4 percent coinciding with an increase in the median home value to $221,600 by Tapestry Lifestyles Esri has developed Tapestry Lifestyles, which is an attempt to create 65 classifications, or lifestyle segments, that help determine purchasing patterns. These segments are broken down to the U.S. Census Block Group level and used by many national retailers to help determine future potential locations. The following Table 3 details the top Tapestry Lifestyles found in the primary trade area. Table 3: Tapestry Lifestyles Lifestyle Trade Area Statistics Short Description Home Improvement Population 19,800 Households 7,300 Median HH Income $67, % Primary Trade Area Households Market Share 1.7% National Market Share Most Home Improvement residences are located in lowdensity neighborhoods where single-family homes flourish and only one-fifth of the households are renter occupied. These are on the go households that tend to eat out regularly. When they have free time on the weekends, home improvement and remodeling projects are common. More than half of the households in this tapestry consist of married-couple families. These consumers have more restricted budgets because they are paying off student loans and second mortgages on their homes. These budget constraints have made them cautious buyers that do research prior to purchasing. Minivans and SUVs are the vehicles of choice for daily commutes. These vehicles also cater to their home improvement mentality. Home Improvement households are very comfortable with new technology and mobile devices. Bright Young Professionals Population 8,600 Households 3,900 Median HH Income $50, % Primary Trade Area Households Market Share 2.2% National Market Share Bright Young Professionals is a large market that primarily consists of young, educated, working professionals. Onethird of all households are under the age of 35. More than half of all households rent and these households are primarily couples. If they do not live in single-family dwellings, smaller multiunit buildings are preferred. These consumers are into the latest technology and they get most of their information from the internet. They own newer computers, ipods, and every household usually has 2 or more TVs. Environmental concerns impact most of their purchasing decisions and eating out at fast food and family restaurants is common for this active market. Leisure time for Bright Young Professionals consists of attending concerts, going to the zoo, renting DVDs, socializing at bars/clubs, and participating in a variety of sports. Accessing online blogs, Facebook, and YouTube is also enjoyable. 10. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

15 Lifestyle Trade Area Statistics Short Description Parks and Rec Savvy Suburbanites Young and Restless Population 6,800 Households 2,800 Median HH Income $55, % Primary Trade Area Households Market Share 2.0% National Households Market Share Population 8,000 Households 2,700 Median HH Income $104, % Primary Trade Area Households Market Share 3.0% National Households Market Share Population 4,500 Households 2,400 Median HH Income $36, % Primary Trade Area Households Market Share 1.7% National Households Market Share These practical suburbanites have achieved the dream of home ownership, and have purchased homes that are within their means. Their homes are older, and town homes and duplexes are not uncommon. Many of these families are two-income married couples approaching retirement age; they are comfortable in their jobs and their homes and budget wisely, but do not plan on retiring anytime soon or moving. Neighborhoods are well established, as are the amenities and programs that supported their now independent children through school and college. The appeal of these kid-friendly neighborhoods is now attracting a new generation of young couples Savvy Suburbanites residents are well educated, well read, and well capitalized. Families include empty nesters and empty nester wannabes, who still have adult children at home. Located in older neighborhoods outside the urban core, their suburban lifestyle includes home remodeling and gardening plus the active pursuit of sports and exercise. They enjoy good food and wine, plus the amenities of the city s cultural events. They are well-connected consumers that appreciate technology and make liberal use of it for everything from shopping and banking to staying current and communicating. Savvy Suburbanites are informed shoppers that do their research prior to purchasing, and they focus on quality. Young and Restless is a market consisting of well-educated young workers and individuals whom are still completing their education. This is one of the youngest markets with a median age of The youthful market is very mobile which results in one of the largest rental markets. Spending habits depict a consumer group of very careful shoppers who are somewhat brand loyal and aware of prices. They enjoy being the first to try new products, but larger purchases are only made after careful research. The most important item in their life is a cell phone, which is required everywhere they go. Leisure activities are abundant with this market. They enjoy dancing, playing pool, playing volleyball, watching MTV, and reading fashion magazines. Young and Restless may purchase natural/organic food, but they also frequent fast food for convenience. Table 3: The top five Tapestry Lifestyle groups profiled above portray older households with moderate incomes. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 11.

16 Tapestry Lifestyles Segmentation Figure 8: The relative proportions of the top Tapestry Lifestyle segments found in the primary trade area. The trade area s most prominent lifestyle group is Home Improvement, which represents 19.0 percent of households. This group is mostly comprised of married-couple families that live in suburban households. Most housing units in this market are owner-occupied and were built between 1970 and With a median age of 37.0, these residents are typically still paying off student loans and may have second mortgages on their homes. Higher participation in the labor force and lower unemployment than U.S. levels depict an active market in the workforce. The median household income of $67,000 is derived from the fact that most households have 2+ workers. These workers typically spend four to seven hours per week commuting, which results in higher transportation and car maintenance costs. These high commute times make working from home preferred. Household size in these neighborhoods averages 2.86 persons. They are consumers that spend heavily on eating out. Fast food and family restaurants are preferred for their value and quick service. Restaurants of choice include Chili s, Chick-fil-A and Panera Bread. Aside from eating out, earned income is frequently spent on children s clothes and toys. The name Home Improvement is derived from the home improvement and remodeling mentality that is exhibited by this market. Free time on the weekend is primarily spent on household projects and trips to home improvement stores for supplies. Technology is a normal part of this market s lifestyle. They are comfortable with new technology and embrace the conveniences that technology provides. A giant screen TV with fiber-optic connection and premium cable is the technology item of choice amongst this market. Bright Young Professionals represent the second largest group in the primary trade area. This is a younger market with a median age of One out of three householders are under the age of 35. The median household income ($50,000) is slightly less than the U.S. ($51,000) and the 12. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

17 median net worth ($28,000) is a lot less than the U.S. ($71,000). These are consumers that are up on the latest technology and acknowledge environmental impacts when making purchases. Leisure time is spent amongst a variety of activities such as sports, going to bars/clubs, attending concerts, or simply renting a DVD from Redbox. The third largest group is Parks and Rec, which represents 7.2 percent of the primary trade area households. This group contains practical suburbanites who have achieved the dream of owning their own home. Some would consider this group financially shrewd because they carefully research all big-ticket purchases. Purchases such as trips are planned through extensive searches for discounts and affordable excursions. Employment Base The employment picture found in the primary trade area reflects a strong services and retail sector foundation, with additional elevated levels of construction, finance, insurance & real estate (FIRE) and manufacturing. Longwood s largest employers include South Seminole Hospital (927 employees), UPS (500 employees) and D & A Building Services (312 employees). Table 4: Employment Comparison by Sector Sector Near Neighborhood Trade Area Primary Trade Area Total Trade Area Florida Agriculture & Mining 2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% Construction 16.2% 11.2% 7.5% 5.2% Manufacturing 6.7% 8.3% 6.5% 4.5% Transportation 1.5% 1.6% 2.5% 3.3% Communication 0.7% 1.8% 2.4% 1.1% Utility 2.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% Wholesale Trade 6.6% 5.7% 4.0% 4.2% Retail Trade 17.6% 19.5% 24.2% 23.4% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 6.0% 9.7% 10.1% 7.8% Services 36.9% 34.6% 36.1% 41.4% Government 2.4% 3.6% 3.9% 6.5% Other 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% Table 4: The service and retail trade sectors comprise the majority of primary trade area employment. As shown in Table 4, the services industry accounts for the majority of employment (34.6 percent) in the primary trade area, although lower than the state level. Within the service sector, other services is the leading subcategory comprising 16.7 percent of total employment, followed by health services (7.5 percent) and education institutions & libraries (5.6 percent). Retail trade (19.5 percent) is the second leading sector of employment in the primary trade area; higher than the near neighborhood trade area and markedly lower than the state and total trade areas due to large retail centers in the areas surrounding Longwood. Retail sector employment is concentrated in eating & drinking places (5.8 percent), miscellaneous retail (3.5 percent) and food stores (3.3 percent) Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 13.

18 Employment Sector Table 5: Drive Time and Trade Area Employment by Industry Sector 5-Minute Drive Time (Near Neighborhood) 10-Minute Drive Time Table 5: Nearly all of the workers in the primary trade area are within a 10-minute drive of the study area. Primary Trade Area Agriculture & Mining Construction 3,210 6,000 5,460 Manufacturing 1,330 3,630 4,040 Transportation Communication 150 1, Utility Wholesale Trade 1,310 2,740 2,770 Retail Trade 3,490 9,970 9,510 Home Improvement General Merchandise Stores Food Stores 410 1,590 1,630 Auto Dealers, Gas Stations, Auto Parts 710 1,150 1,220 Apparel & Accessory Stores Furniture & Home Furnishings 350 1, Eating & Drinking Places 1,070 2,830 2,830 Miscellaneous Retail 420 1,850 1,690 Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 1,190 4,080 4,740 Banks, Savings, & Lending Institutions Securities Brokers Insurance Carriers & Agents 500 1,630 1,780 Real Estate, Holding, Other Investment 330 1,260 1,660 Services 7,310 17,310 16,910 Hotels & Lodging Automotive Services Motion Pictures & Amusements Health Services 2,160 4,400 3,640 Legal Services Education Institutions & Libraries 740 2,310 2,740 Other Services 3,470 8,120 8,150 Government 470 2,670 1,750 Unclassified Total Employment 19,840 50,940 48,840 Within the FIRE category (9.7 percent), insurance carriers & agents is the leading subcategory comprising 3.6 percent of the total employment, followed by real estate, holding & investment offices (3.4 percent) and banks, savings & lending institutions (1.6 percent). FIRE workers are likely candidates to leave the office for lunch and other shopping opportunities before, during and after the workday. Consumer expenditure from daytime employment compliments that captured in the evenings and on weekends by households in the trade area. Office Worker Retail Spending in a Digital Age, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers in 2012, provides insight into the impact of office worker employment. Weekly office worker expenditure, adjusted for 2015 dollars, is estimated at $180. Weekly non-office worker expenditure, in 2015 dollars, is estimated at 37 percent of office workers. Non-office workers are estimated to have slightly less disposable 14. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

19 income, to have multiple work locations including at home and typically are on the road more during their workweek. Retail purchases (general merchandise, apparel, home furnishings, electronics, grocery and convenience items) make up the majority of the office worker dollars, at $120 per week. Restaurant expenditures (full service, limited service and drinking places) account for the balance at $60 per week. Annualized, each office worker expends $9,360 before, during and after work. Some of this potential expenditure can be captured by existing and future retailers in Longwood to supplement the demand generated by trade area households. Table 6: 10-Minute Drive Time Worker Expenditure Category Weekly Expenditure Annual Expenditure Office Worker Expenditure Non-Office Worker Expenditure Total Expenditure 18,000 32,900 Prepared Food & Beverage Limited & Full Service Restaurants $44 $2,288 $41,184,000 $27,851,824 $69,035,824 Drinking Places $16 $832 $14,976,000 $10,127,936 $25,103,936 Retail Goods General Merchandise, Apparel, Home $70 $3,640 $65,520,000 $44,309,720 $109,829,720 Furnishings, Electronics Grocery $30 $1,560 $28,080,000 $18,989,880 $47,069,880 Convenience Items $20 $1,040 $18,720,000 $12,659,920 $31,379,920 Total $180 $9,360 $168,480,000 $113,939,280 $282,419,280 Table 6: Employees within 10 minutes of the study site expend over $49.6 million dollars annually. For the purposes of this study, an hour lunch break for area workers was assumed and a 10- minute drive time boundary was used to estimate the spending potential of workers near Longwood. The annual impact of the 50,900 workers within a 10-minute drive time is $94.1 million in prepared food and beverage establishments, $109.8 million in retail goods sales, $47 million in grocery purchases, and $31.3 million in convenience items, totaling $282.4 million in total worker expenditure before, during and after the workday. Detailed results are found above in Table 6. Figure 9: The largest employer in Longwood is South Seminole Hospital (left), while smaller offices are common near the transit village and historic district (right). Further research, including focus groups, are recommended to fully understand the existing policies and physical conditions that are limiting daytime worker shopping and dining. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 15.

20 TRADE AREA CHARACTERISTICS Figure 10: The Longwood Station hosted over 60,000 boardings on the SunRail. Location The primary trade area is located along I-4 and US approximately 10 miles north of downtown Orlando. Central to Orlando s northern suburbs, Longwood offers a convenient residential location for families and professionals, which explains the above average age, income and education levels of the primary trade area. Following the opening of the SunRail Station, it is likely the residential base will continue to grow as commuting becomes more convenient. The shopping centers may be challenged by locations where the major roadways are divided and prevent convenient access. The transit and historic districts are well located with excellent visibility from SR-434; however, traffic congestion at rush hour can be detrimental to evening shoppers. Parking does not appear to be an issue currently as many surface lots are located near the transit district to serve park and ride patrons. On-street parking is limited and would greatly enhance the convenience and long-term sustainability of retailers along Ronald Reagan Boulevard. Access Regional linkage to the study area is available, with I-4 and US as the major north-south routes in the region and SR-434 a major east-west connector between them. Table 7: Traffic Counts Location Traffic Count (ADT) Year I-4 & SR , US & Dog Track Road 41, SR-434 & Ronald Reagan Boulevard 40, SR-434 & Rangeline Road 39, US 17-92, North of SR , Ronald Reagan Boulevard, North of SR , Ronald Reagan Boulevard, South of SR , Dog Track Road & Ronald Reagan Boulevard 19, Church Avenue & US , Table 7: The traffic chart shows the heaviest regional traffic on I-4, and locally along SR-434 and US (Source: City of Longwood & FDOT) 16. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

21 Table 7 details the regional and local routes with the heaviest traffic: I-4 (141,000 ADT) and US (41,700 ADT), which are the region s main north-south travel routes. Locally, SR-434 carries 40,700 cars per day, bringing a significant number of potential customers within blocks of the historic and transit districts. Access may be a challenge for consumers unfamiliar with the area; northbound I-4 does not have an exit for five miles after the SR-434 off-ramp. Other Shopping Areas As part of GPG s evaluation, neighborhood, community and regional shopping centers near the site were identified and studied to assess their retail appeal, strength of tenant mix, general maintenance and accessibility. In addition to the onsite inspection of the most significant competing shopping concentrations to the study area, GPG used information from the International Council of Shopping Centers Global Shopping Center Directory. Map Designation Table 8: Competing Shopping Centers Retail Center Name Shopping Center Type Figure 11: Competing Shopping Centers Size Distance to Longwood Study Sites 1. Altamonte Mall Regional Center 1,150,000 sf 4.0 miles 2. Seminole Towne Center Regional Center 1,137,000 sf 8.1 miles 3. Park Avenue Shopping District Regional Center 9.1 miles 4. Oviedo Mall Regional Center 952,000 sf 10.7 miles 5. Orlando Fashion Square Regional Center 1,086,000 sf 13.7 miles 6. Winter Park Village Lifestyle Center 525,000 sf 7.7 miles 7. Colonial TownPark Lifestyle Center 200,000 sf 7.9 miles Figure 11: Map depicting retain competition within 10 miles of downtown Longwood. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 17.

22 Map Designation Table 9: Competing Shopping Centers CONTINUED Table 9: There are seventeen community centers located within a 10-mile radius of the Longwood study areas. Regional Centers Retail Center Name Shopping Center Type Size Distance to Longwood Study Sites 8. Casselberry Exchange Community Center 125,000 sf 4.0 miles 9. Renaissance Centre Community Center 159,000 sf 4.3 miles 10. Shoppes of Lake Mary Community Center 279,000 sf 4.6 miles 11. Marketplace at Altamonte Community Center 330,000 sf 5.0 miles 12. Lake Mary Centre Community Center 422,000 sf 5.1 miles 13. Casselberry Commons Community Center 245,000 sf 6.4 miles 14. Wekiva Square Community Center 172,000 sf 6.5 miles 15. Brantley Square Community Center 123,000 sf 6.6 miles 16. West Town Corners Community Center 388,000 sf 6.7 miles 17. Altamonte Crossing Community Center 278,000 sf* 6.7 miles 18. Center of Winter Park Community Center 259,000 sf 8.0 miles 19. Promenade at Tuskawilla Community Center 217,000 sf 8.0 miles 20. Marketplace at Seminole TC Community Center 309,000 sf 8.1 miles 21. Piedmont Plaza Community Center 208,000 sf 9.3 miles 22. Wekiva Riverwalk Community Center 234,000 sf 9.6 miles 23. Gateway Plaza Community Center 214,000 sf 9.6 miles 24. Oviedo Park Crossing Community Center 321,000 sf 9.7 miles 25. Colonial Marketplace Community Center 141,000 sf 14.1 miles Figure 12: Altamonte Mall seeks an affluent crowd by offering notable retailers such as the Apple Store and Brighton Collectables. 1. Altamonte Mall Altamonte Mall is conveniently located near Interstate 4, four miles southwest of the study area. With over 1.1 million sf of retail space and 160 stores, Altamonte Mall attracts 14 million visitors annually and seeks an affluent crowd with offerings such as Ann Taylor Loft, the Apple Store, Brighton Collectibles, Coach and White House I Black Market. Dillard s, 18. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

23 JCPenney, Macy s and Sears anchor the mall. Opened in 1974, the mall was renovated in 1989 and again in General Growth Properties is the current owner and operator of Altamonte Mall. Figure 13: Seminole Towne Center is anchored by well-known department stores like Macy s, Dillard s and JCPenney. 2. Seminole Towne Center Located 8.1 miles north of the study area, Seminole Towne Center offers more than 1.1 million sf of leasable retail space. The current owner of the regional center is the Simon Property Group. Built in 1995, Seminole Towne Center is anchored by Burlington Coat Factory, Dick s Sporting Goods, Dillard s, JCPenney and Macy s. Sears is also an anchor of the center, but it is half of its original size after closing the lower level portion of the store. 3. Park Avenue Shopping District Park Avenue is a small shopping district in Winter Park, Florida boasting more than 140 boutiques, sidewalk cafes and museums. The shopping district is located 9.1 miles south of the study area and runs from Fairbanks Avenue (Florida State Road 426) in the south to Webster Avenue in the north. Shops in the area include locally owned stores as well as Chico s, Gap, Lilly Pulitzer, Origins, Pottery Barn, Restoration Hardware and the Spice and Tea Exchange. In addition, Park Avenue offers a variety of fare for hungry patrons: Cuban, French, Italian, Japanese, Panera Bread, Thai, Turkish, Starbucks, Tropical Smoothie Café, ice cream, desserts, coffee, tea, wine bars and much more. Winter Park s shopping district along Park Avenue is one of Central Florida s premiere shopping destinations. Figure 14: Park Avenue Shopping District is viewed as one of Central Florida s premiere shopping destinations with a variety of retail. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 19.

24 4. Oviedo Mall Oviedo Mall, opened in 1998, is located 10.7 miles east of the study area at the junction of Red Bug Lake Road and the Florida Greenway. A regional center with 952,000 sf, Oviedo Mall is anchored by Dillard s, Macy s, Regal Cinemas and Sears. Urban Retail Properties is the current owner of the center. With proximity to high-income neighborhoods, Oviedo Mall competes to retain the neighboring residents. Figure 15: Oviedo Mall is located 10.7 miles east of the study area and is anchored by Dillard s, Macy s, Regal Cinemas and Sears. 5. Orlando Fashion Square Located on the southern edge of the 10-mile study radius, Orlando Fashion Square is a 1.1 million sf regional center. The center is an approximately 13.7-mile drive from the study area. Orlando Fashion Square is anchored by Dillard s, JCPenney, Macy s and Sears, and includes Bath & Body Works, Charlotte Russe, Express, Hot Topic, Kay Jewelers and Sephora. The property opened in 1973 and has undergone renovations as recently as 2014 with the addition of StrikeOuts, a bowling alley and entertainment center. Orlando Fashion Square is currently operated by UP Development. The center is a major shopping destination for nearby residents and employees who take advantage of the area s wide selection. Figure 16: Orlando Fashion Square is anchored by Dillard s, JCPenney, Macy s and Sears and has underwent renovation in Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

25 Lifestyle Centers Figure 17: Winter Park Village is a lifestyle center anchored by Publix and Regal Cinema, located 7.7 miles south of the study area. 6. Winter Park Village Located 7.7 miles south of the study area between Lee Road and Fairbanks Avenue in Winter Park, Winter Park Village is a lifestyle center featuring 525,000 sf of upscale retail, dining and entertainment. The center is anchored by Publix and Regal Cinemas, and features Brio Tuscan Grille, Cheesecake Factory, Edible Arrangements, Gamestop, Guitar Center, Jos. A. Bank, Mitchell s Fish Market, Soccer Locker, Ulta and White House/Black Market. Casto is the current operator of this lifestyle center. Figure 18: Colonial TownPark is 7.9 miles north of the study area andoffers a variety of restaurants and AmStar Cinemas. 7. Colonial TownPark Located 7.9 miles north of the study area in Lake Mary, Colonial TownPark is a lifestyle center containing 200,000 sf of retail, dining, and entertainment. Select Strategies Realty is the current operator of this center, anchored by Publix and AmStar Cinemas. Colonial TownPark offers a variety of restaurants such as Dexter s, Liam Fitzpatrick s, and Carlos n Charlie s. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 21.

26 Community Centers Figure 18: Casselberry Exchange (left) and Renaissance Centre (right) are the closest community centers to the City of Longwood study area. 8. Casselberry Exchange Located 4.0 miles south of the study area, Casselberry Exchange is a 125,000 sf community center. Bed Bath & Beyond and Staples anchor the center, which is owned by Kitson & Partners. The center was renovated as recently as Renaissance Centre Renaissance Centre boasts 159,000 sf and is currently owned by Kimco Realty. This community center is located 4.3 miles southwest of the study area and is anchored by DSW, Petco, Sports Authority, Ulta and Whole Foods. Whole Foods at Renaissance Centre is the first Whole Foods store in Seminole County. Figure 19: Shoppes of Lake Mary (left) and Marketplace at Altamonte (right) are community centers that offer a variety of affordable retailers. 10. Shoppes of Lake Mary Shoppes of Lake Mary offers 279,000 sf of leasable retail space. The community center is located 4.6 miles north of the study site in Lake Mary. DDR Corporation is the current owner of the center, anchored by Publix, Target and Staples. 22. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

27 11. Marketplace at Altamonte Marketplace at Altamonte is located 5.0 miles southwest of the study area. The center contains 330,000 sf of leasable retail space and is anchored by Burlington Coat Factory, Buy Buy Baby, Christmas Tree Shops, Gold s Gym, Ross Dress for Less, and TigerDirect.com. Stiles Realty is the current owner of this community center. 12. Lake Mary Centre Owned by Equity One, Inc, Lake Mary Centre offers 422,000 sf of leasable retail space. The community center is located 5.1 miles north of the study area. Academy Sports, Office Depot and Ross Dress for Less anchor the center. Figure 20: Lake Mary Centre (left) is located 5.1 miles north of the study area while Casselberry Commons (right) is located 6.4 miles south. 13. Casselberry Commons Casselberry Commons is a 245,000 sf community shopping center opened in Publix has a 47,000 sf location here, and other anchors include Ross Dress for Less, Stein Mart and T.J.Maxx. Located 6.4 miles south of the study area, this center is operated by the DDR Corporation. Figure 20: Wekiva Square (left) and Brantley Square (right) are both located southwest of the study area and consist of less than 200,000 sf. 14. Wekiva Square Wekiva Square is located 6.5 miles southwest of the study area. This community center contains 172,000 sf of leasable retail space. The Shopping Center Group owns this center anchored by Kohls and HomeGoods. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 23.

28 15. Brantley Square Located 6.6 miles southwest of the study area, Brantley Square is a 123,000 sf community center owned by Equity Investment Services. Anchors of Brantley Square include Aldi, JoAnn Fabrics and Office Depot. Figure 21: West Town Corners (left) and Altamonte Crossing (right) are both anchored by well-known home improvement and furniture retailers. 16. West Town Corners West Town Corners is a community center owned by the Simon Property Group. Located 6.7 miles southwest of the study area, the center contains 388,000 sf of leasable retail space. Notable retailers that anchor this community center are American Signature Furniture, Lowe s, Petsmart, Wal-Mart, and Winn-Dixie. 17. Altamonte Crossing Located 6.7 miles west of the study area, Altamonte Crossing is a community center that contains approximately 278,000 sf of retail space. The center is owned by one of the anchors, The Home Depot. Ashley Furniture, Michaels and Target also anchor the center. Figure 21: Center of Winter Park s Big Kmart location closed (left) while the location at Promenade at Tuskawilla (right)remained open. 18. Center of Winter Park Center of Winter Park is located 8.0 miles south of the study area and contains 259,000 sf of retail space. LA Fitness. Michaels and Office Depot anchor the community center. The Sterling Organization is the current operator of this center. The center lost its largest anchor tenant with the closing of Big Kmart. 24. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

29 19. Promenade at Tuskawilla Promenade at Tuskawilla is a 217,000 sf community center located 8.0 miles southeast of the study area. SMD Properties is the current owner of the center. Hobby Lobby and Big Kmart are the anchors of the center. Figure 22: Marketplace at Seminole Towne Center (left) contains a large collection of anchor tenants while Piedmont Plaza (right) only has two. 20. Marketplace at Seminole Towne Center Boasting approximately 309,000 sf of retail space, Marketplace at Seminole Towne Center is a community center located 8.1 miles north of the study area. Weingarten Realty is the current owner of the center. A collection of well-known tenants anchor the center, such as Big Lots, Cost Plus World Market, Marshalls, Old Navy, Petco, Sports Authority, Super Target and Ulta. 21. Piedmont Plaza Located 9.3 miles west of the study area, Piedmont Plaza contains 208,000 sf of retail space. DDR Corporation is the current owner of the community center. Bealls and Hobby Lobby are anchors of this center. Figure 23: Wekiva Riverwalk and Gateway Plaza are both larger than 200,000 sf. Ross Dress for Less anchors them both. 22. Wekiva Riverwalk Wekiva Riverwalk is a community center located 9.6 miles west of the study area. Bed Bath & Beyond, Marshalls, Petco, Ross Dress for Less and United Artists Theatres anchor the center. Woolbright Development is the current owner of the site. Wekiva Riverwalk offers 234,000 sf of leasable retail space. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 25.

30 23. Gateway Plaza Gateway Plaza is a community center located 9.6 miles north of the study area. CBRE is the current operator of the 214,000 sf center, which was built in Anchor tenants include Bealls, Bed Bath & Beyond and Ross Dress for Less. Figure 24: Oviedo Park Crossing (left)is located 9.7 miles east and Colonial Marketplace (right) is located on the edge of the 10-mile radius. 24. Oviedo Park Crossing Located 9.7 miles east of the study site, Oviedo Park Crossing offers 321,000 sf of leasable retail space. DDR Corporation is the owner of this community center, which is anchored by Bed Bath & Beyond, Lowe s, Michaels, OfficeMax, PetSmart, Ross Dress for Less and T.J.Maxx. 25. Colonial Marketplace Colonial Marketplace is a community center located on the southern edge of the 10-mile study radius. Brixmor Properties owns this 141,000 sf community center anchored by LA Fitness and Target. The center is located across Maguire Boulevard from Orlando Fashion Square and is approximately a 14.1-mile drive from the study area. SUMMARY of FINDINGS Figure 24: Many of Longwood s underperforming or poorly maintained shopping centers can be redeveloped or improved through infill development to accommodate new retailers and better serve the consumer base. This study finds that downtown Longwood can presently support up to 201,600 sf of additional retail space. This new retail can potentially capture an additional $64.4 million of expenditures in 2015, growing to 228,700 sf and $76.9 million by This retail development could include: 26. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

31 Corner Stores: One to two corner stores at 1,500 to 2,500 sf, located near neighborhood entries near the historic district or transit village. Convenience Centers: Three to four 15,000 to 25,000 sf convenience centers located along SR-434, US or Ronald Reagan Boulevard with excellent visibility and sufficient parking. These centers can include a wide range of retailers such as apparel, bakery, butcher, electronics, florist, financial services, hardware, limited-service restaurants, gift stores and shoes. Neighborhood Centers: One to two 80,000 to 120,000 sf neighborhood centers located along SR-434 or US Such a center could support a full-service grocer, furniture, general merchandise, apparel and shoes, jewelry, sporting goods, full-service and limited-service restaurants, and a pharmacy. Community or Lifestyle Centers: One 200,000 to 220,000 sf community or lifestyle center located along SR-434 or US This center could support 2-3 department store merchandise retailers, general merchandise, 6 to 8 apparel stores, 8 to 10 full-service and limited-service restaurants, a bar, a bookstore, furniture, gifts, jewelry and shoes. These retail centers could be developed as conventional shopping centers or as infill into existing centers or the historic or transit districts. The demographics of the primary trade area show a population base of 96,200 which will to grow to 99,400 by 2020, at an annual growth rate of 0.65 percent. The persons-per-household is 2.49, and the median age is 41.8 years old. The average household income of $78,100 in the primary trade area is higher than regional averages. Employment in the primary trade area favors the services sector (34.6 percent), while being weak in the retail and transportation categories. There are over 48,800 employees in the primary trade area, growing to 220,700 in the total trade area. More than 50,000 employees are within a 10- minute drive time of downtown; these daytime consumers expend over $282.4 million annually, with the general retail sector leading at $109.8 million per year. The trade area s most prominent lifestyle group is Home Improvement, which represents 19.0 percent of households. This group is mostly comprised of married-couple families that live in suburban households. With a median age of 37.0, these residents are typically still paying off student loans and may have second mortgages on their homes. Higher participation in the labor force and lower unemployment than US levels depict an active market in the workforce. These workers typically spend four to seven hours per week commuting, which results in higher transportation and car maintenance costs. These high commute times make working from home preferred. They are consumers that spend heavily on eating out. Restaurants of choice include Chili s, Chick-fil-A and Panera Bread. Aside from eating out, earned income is frequently spent on children s clothes and toys. The name Home Improvement is derived from the home improvement and remodeling mentality that is exhibited by this market. A detailed examination of the supportable sf of retail uses is found in the following Table 10: Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 27.

32 Retailers Retail Category Table 10: 2015 & 2020 Supportable Retail Table Longwood Primary Trade Area 2015 Estimated Retail Sales 2015 Estimated 2015 Supportable Sales/SF SF 2020 Estimated Retail Sales 2020 Estimated 2020 Supportable Sales/SF SF No. of Stores Apparel Stores $6,524,201 $265 24,620 $7,752,988 $280 27, Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $1,270,242 $295 4,310 $1,459,897 $310 4, Book & Music Stores $718,590 $215 3,340 $808,992 $225 3, Department Store Merchandise $6,242,625 $305 20,470 $7,212,120 $320 22, Electronics & Appliance Stores $366,800 $285 1,290 $535,906 $300 1,790 1 Florists $287,252 $205 1,400 $313,613 $215 1,460 1 Furniture Stores $279,379 $235 1,190 $344,973 $245 1,410 1 General Merchandise Stores $2,593,641 $290 8,940 $2,882,797 $305 9, Grocery Stores $11,291,467 $525 21,510 $13,757,569 $555 24, Hardware $1,444,576 $245 5,900 $2,245,079 $260 8, Jewelry Stores $546,420 $345 1,580 $681,511 $365 1, Lawn & Garden Supply Stores $196,296 $ $288,447 $220 1,310 1 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $1,794,353 $230 7,800 $2,090,546 $240 8, Office Supplies & Gift Stores $1,446,513 $240 6,030 $1,639,773 $255 6, Pharmacy $3,854,948 $305 12,640 $5,188,539 $320 16, Shoe Stores $1,868,254 $275 6,790 $2,096,016 $290 7, Specialty Food Stores $795,765 $250 3,180 $913,805 $265 3, Sporting Goods & Hobby Stores $591,542 $250 2,370 $662,149 $265 2, Retailer Totals $42,112,863 $ ,290 $50,874,721 $ , Restaurants Bars, Breweries & Pubs $1,825,707 $315 5,800 $2,028,552 $330 6, Full-Service Restaurants $9,610,238 $350 27,460 $11,266,810 $370 30, Limited-Service Eating Places $8,339,617 $325 25,660 $10,023,843 $340 29, Special Food Services $2,512,459 $300 8,370 $2,769,249 $315 8, Restaurant Totals $22,288,022 $323 67,290 $26,088,454 $339 74, Retailer & Restaurant Totals $64,400,885 $ ,580 $76,963,175 $ , Table 10: Sales stated in constant 2015 dollars. Retail Category Definitions Retail categories in the Supportable Retail Table correspond to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), the standard used by Federal statistical agencies in classifying business establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data related to the U.S. business economy. The following NAICS codes and definitions are provided by the U.S. Census Bureau: 28. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

33 Retail Auto Supply Stores (4411): establishments known as automotive supply stores primarily engaged in retailing new, used, and/or rebuilt automotive parts and accessories, automotive supply stores that are primarily engaged in both retailing automotive parts and accessories and repairing automobiles; establishments primarily engaged in retailing and installing automotive accessories; and establishments primarily engaged in retailing new and/or used tires and tubes or retailing new tires in combination with automotive repair services. Furniture Stores (4421): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new furniture, such as household furniture (e.g., baby furniture box springs and mattresses) and outdoor furniture; office furniture (except those sold in combination with office supplies and equipment); and/or furniture sold in combination with major appliances, home electronics, home furnishings and/or floor coverings. Home Furnishings Stores (4422): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new home furnishings (except furniture). Electronics and Appliance Stores (4431): establishments primarily engaged in retailing the following new products: household-type appliances (refrigerator, dishwasher, oven), cameras, computers/software, televisions and other electronic goods. Hardware Stores (4441): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new building materials and supplies (lumber, plumbing, electrical, tools, housewares, hardware, paint, and wallpaper). Lawn and Garden Supply Stores (4442): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new lawn and garden equipment and supplies. (Nursery, farm and garden products, outdoor power equipment). Grocery Stores (4451): establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of food products (canned/frozen food, fruits and vegetables, meat, fish, poultry, milk, bread, eggs, soda). Specialty Food Stores (4452): establishments primarily engaged in retailing specialized lines of food (meat, fish/seafood, fruits/vegetables, baked goods, candy, nuts, confections, popcorn, ice cream, items not made on the premises). Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores (4453): establishments primarily engaged in retailing packaged alcoholic beverages, such as ale, beer, wine and liquor. Health & Personal Care Stores (4461): establishments primarily engaged in retailing health and personal care products (pharmacies/drug stores, first aid, beauty products, household supplies, candy, prepackaged snacks, optical goods, vitamins/supplements). Clothing stores (4481): men s and boys clothing stores; women s and girls clothing stores; children s and infants clothing stores; family clothing stores; clothing accessories stores. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 29.

34 Shoe Stores (4482): Shoes (men s, women s, child/infant, athletic). Jewelry Stores (4483): Jewelry, luggage, and leather goods (silverware, watches, clocks, handbags, briefcases, belts, gloves). Sporting Goods Stores (4511): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new sporting goods (fitness equipment, bikes, camping, uniforms and footwear). Book & Music Stores (4512): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new books, newspapers, magazines, and prerecorded audio and video media. Department Stores (4521): establishments known as department stores primarily engaged in retailing a wide range of the following new products with no one merchandise line predominating: apparel; furniture; appliances and home furnishings; and selected additional items, such as paint, hardware, toiletries, cosmetics, photographic equipment, jewelry, toys and sporting goods. Merchandise lines are normally arranged in separate departments. General Merchandise Stores (4529): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new goods in general merchandise stores (except department stores) (warehouse clubs, supercenters, apparel, auto parts, dry goods, hardware, groceries, housewares, no line predominating). Florists (4531): establishments known as florists primarily engaged in retailing cut flowers, floral arrangements, and potted plants purchased from others. These establishments usually prepare the arrangements they sell. Office Supplies & Gift Stores (4532): establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) retailing new stationery, school supplies, and office supplies; (2) retailing a combination of new office equipment, furniture, and supplies; (3) retailing new office equipment, furniture, and supplies in combination with retailing new computers; and (4) retailing new gifts, novelty merchandise, souvenirs, greeting cards, seasonal and holiday decorations and curios. Miscellaneous Retailers (4539): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new miscellaneous specialty store merchandise (except motor vehicle and parts dealers; furniture and home furnishings stores; consumer-type electronics and appliance stores; building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers; food and beverage stores; health and personal care stores; gasoline stations; clothing and clothing accessories stores; sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores; general merchandise stores; florists; office supplies, stationery, and gift stores; and used merchandise stores). Pet supplies, art dealers, manufactured home dealers, tobacco/cigar stores, Restaurants Full-Service Restaurants (7221): establishments primarily engaged in providing food services to patrons who order and are served while seated (i.e., waiter/waitress service) and pay after eating. Establishments that provide these types of food services to patrons with any combination of other services, such as carryout services are classified in this industry. 30. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

35 Limited-Service Restaurants (7222): establishments primarily engaged in providing food services where patrons generally order or select items and pay before eating. Most establishments do not have waiter/waitress service, but some provide limited service, such as cooking to order (i.e., per special request), bringing food to seated customers, or providing off-site delivery (cafeterias, snack/ juice bar, ice cream/soft serve shops, cookie shops, popcorn shops, donut shops, coffee shops, bagel shops). Special Food Services (7223): establishments primarily engaged in providing one of the following food services (2) a location designated by the customer; or (3) from motorized vehicles or non-motorized carts. Food Service Contractors: Establishments may be engaged in providing food services at institutional, governmental, commercial, or industrial locations of others based (cafeteria, restaurant, and fast food eating-place) on contractual arrangements with these types of organizations for a specified period of time. Management staff is always provided by the food services contractor. Caterers: providing single event-based food services. These establishments generally have equipment and vehicles to transport meals and snacks to events and/or prepare food at an off-premise site. Banquet halls with catering staff are included in this industry. Examples of events catered by establishments in this industry are graduation parties, wedding receptions, business or retirement luncheons and trade shows. Mobile Food Services: establishments primarily engaged in preparing and serving meals and snacks for immediate consumption from motorized vehicles or non-motorized carts. The establishment is the central location from which the caterer route is serviced, not each vehicle, or cart. Included in this industry are establishments primarily engaged in providing food services from vehicles, such as hot dog carts and ice cream trucks. Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) (7224): establishments primarily engaged in preparing and serving alcoholic beverages for immediate consumption (bars, taverns, nightclubs). Shopping Center Definitions This study utilizes the shopping centers typologies defined by the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) as follows: Convenience Centers: Convenience centers are 30,000 sf or less, unanchored, and generally will service a trade area of up to one mile. These centers include banking, carryout foods, florists, mail centers, small restaurants, small food markets, and professional services such as real estate and financial consulting. The centers typically include six to eight businesses. Neighborhood Centers: Neighborhood centers are anchored with a full-sized supermarket and typically range from 60,000 to 100,000 sf. They service a trade area of two to three miles and can include apparel, banks, carryout food, hardware, mail centers, restaurants, sporting goods and professional services such as financial consulting and real estate. Community Centers: Community centers typically range from 150,000 to 300,000 sf and are almost always anchored with a full-sized department store. They also include Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 31.

36 junior anchor retailers selling books, crafts, shoes, and sporting goods. Community centers often include large home improvement stores and medium-sized discount apparel stores. Their service area is typically five to seven miles in suburban locations. Lifestyle Centers: Lifestyle centers average 150,000 to 200,000 sf and feature popular apparel, book, and home furnishing stores, as well as cinemas and a wide selection of themed restaurants. The centers are frequently planned as walkable areas with main streets. Recently, lifestyle centers have included large anchors such as department stores, public libraries, and supermarkets. These centers typically have a trade area of four to six miles when developed in suburban settings. Lifestyle centers that include civic, employment, and residential buildings along with the retail land use are defined as town centers. Regional Centers: Regional centers average trade areas of eight to 12 miles and are anchored with multiple department stores. The centers can range from 800,000 to 1,500,000 sf, and often include cinemas along with 200,000 sf of national brand fashion. Rationale The rationale for the findings in this study follows: Underserving existing retail centers: Retailers in the Longwood primary trade area are currently underserving the potential demographic base represented by a considerable amount of resident and worker sales leakage of which $64.4 million could be captured by existing businesses and/or with the opening of 70 to 90 additional restaurants and stores. Strong demographic characteristics and anticipated growth: Average and median household incomes in the primary trade, $78,100 and $57,500 respectively, are desirable for retail growth. The annual population and income growth rates, 0.65 and 2.4 percent respectively, demonstrate a stable and increasing consumer base that will favorably affect new retail development. Gap in regional retail market: Longwood is devoid of large-scale retail as can be found to the north in Lake Mary and Sanford or to the south in Altamonte Springs or Winter Park. This could translate to a captive audience of nearby consumer who would rather shop close to home or work than drive further for other shopping experiences. Opportunity for transit-oriented development: Opened in 2014, the SunRail is a regional transit system with a station in Longwood. Over 60,000 passengers rode SunRail from the Longwood Station in 2014 with a combined system ridership of nearly 200,000. Travel times to downtown Orlando are approximately 30 minutes making Longwood a potentially desirable location for workers to live and commute. Increases in population in the transit village and the possibility for other transit riders to stop at Longwood further the exposure and potential sales capture of Longwood retailers. Limits of Study The findings of this study represent GPG s best estimates for the amounts and types of retail projects that should be supportable in the study area. Every reasonable effort has been made to 32. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

37 ensure that the data contained in this study reflect the most accurate and timely information possible and are believed to be reliable. This study is based on estimates, assumptions, and other information developed by GPG independent research effort, general knowledge of the industry, and consultations with the client and its representatives. This study is designed as objective third party research and GPG does not necessarily recommend that any or all of the supportable retail be developed in the study area. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, its agent and representatives or in any other data source used in preparing or presenting this study. This report is based on information that was current as of July 22, 2015 and GPG has not undertaken any update of its research effort since such date. This report may contain prospective financial information, estimates, or opinions that represent GPG s view of reasonable expectations at a particular time, but such information, estimates, or opinions are not offered as predictions or assurances that a particular level of income or profit will be achieved, that particular events will occur, or that a particular price will be offered or accepted. The actual amounts of supportable retail could be significantly higher or lower depending on multiple market and not market variables including the type, design and quality of the new development. It is plausible that a walkable town center, with well-designed buildings and public realm, could draw visitors from beyond this study s estimated trade area boundaries and considerably outperform the site s location and limited market potential. This would require an extraordinary development team and retailer mix unique to the market, including anchor retailers. On the other hand, a poorly implemented commercial center or badly managed businesses could underperform the location. Actual results achieved during the period covered by our prospective financial analysis may vary from those described in our report, and the variations may be material. Therefore, no warranty or representation is made by GPG that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will be achieved. This study should not be the sole basis for programming, planning, designing, financing, or development of any commercial center. This study is for the use of the City of Longwood for general planning purposes only, and is void for other site locations, developers, or organizations. - End of Study - Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 33.

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39 Gibbs Planning Group EXHIBIT A-1: Business Summary - Primary Trade Area Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 35.

40 Gibbs Planning Group EXHIBIT A-2: Business Summary - Primary Trade Area 36. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

41 EXHIBIT B-1: Community Profile - Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 37.

42 EXHIBIT B-2: Community Profile - Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group 38. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

43 EXHIBIT B-3: Community Profile - Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 39.

44 EXHIBIT B-4: Community Profile - Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group 40. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

45 EXHIBIT B-5: Community Profile - Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 41.

46 EXHIBIT B-6: Community Profile - Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group 42. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

47 EXHIBIT C1: Housing Profile Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 43.

48 EXHIBIT C2: Housing Profile Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group 44. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

49 EXHIBIT D1: Tapestry Lifestyle Segmentation Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 45.

50 EXHIBIT D2: Tapestry Lifestyle Segmentation Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group 46. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

51 EXHIBIT D3: Tapestry Lifestyle Segments Primary Trade Area Gibbs Planning Group Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 47.

52 Gibbs Planning Group EXHIBIT E: Annual Population Growth Rate Map 48. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

53 Gibbs Planning Group EXHIBIT F: 2015 Median Household Income Map Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 49.

54 Gibbs Planning Group EXHIBIT G: 2015 Average Household Income Map 50. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

55 Gibbs Planning Group EXHIBIT H: 2020 Median Household Income Map Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 51.

56 Gibbs Planning Group EXHIBIT I: 2020 Average Household Income Map 52. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

57 Gibbs Planning Group EXHIBIT J: Population 25+ with Bachelor s Degree Map Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 53.

58 Gibbs Planning Group APPENDIX K: 2015 Average Household Size 54. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study

59 Gibbs Planning Group APPENDIX L: 2015 Total Employees Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study 55.

60 Gibbs Planning Group APPENDIX M: 2015 Median Home Values 56. Longwood, Florida Retail Market Study