Retail Market Analysis

Transcription

1 St. Armands Circle Retail Market Analysis Sarasota, Florida Prepared for: City of Sarasota Prepared by: Gibbs Planning Group

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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 1 Figure 1: Birds-eye View of St. Armands Circle and Neighboring Area... 1 Executive Summary... 1 Table 1: 2014 & 2019 Estimated Supportable Retail... 2 Figure 2: St. Armands Circle Study Area Location Map... 3 Background... 3 Figure 3: St. Armands Circle Six-Mile Radius Map... 4 Figure 4: St. Armands Circle Association s Area Orientation Map... 5 Methodology... 5 Figure 5: Photos: National Tenants Lily Pulitzer and Tommy Bahama... 6 Figure 6: Photo: Wayfinder Map... 7 Trade Area... 7 Figure 7: St. Armands Circle Primary Trade Area Map... 8 Figure 8: St. Armands Circle Total Trade Area Map... 9 Demographic Characteristics Table 2: Demographic Comparisons Table Tapestry Lifestyles Table 3: Tapestry Lifestyles Employment Base Table 4: Employment Comparison by Sector Table 5: Drive Time Employment by Industry Sector Table 6:Ten-Minute Drive Time Worker Expenditure TRADE AREA CHARACTERISTICS Location Figure 9: Photos: Bridge to St. Armands Circle Access Table 7: Traffic Counts Tourism Figure 10: Photo: Sarasota Beach Other Shopping Areas Figure 11: Walkable Shopping Districts near St. Armands Circle Figure 12: Photo: Future University Town Center Mall Figure 13: Map of Wal-Mart and Target Store Locations Table 8: Existing Regional Malls and Community Centers Figure 14: Regional and Community Shopping Centers Map Shopping Malls Westfield Southgate Figure 15: Photo: Westfield Southgate Figure 16: Photo: The Mall at University Town Center The Mall at University Town Center Figure 17: Photo: Westfield Sarasota Square Mall Westfield Sarasota Square Mall Figure 18: Photo: DeSoto Square Mall DeSoto Mall Community Centers Figure 19: Photo: Aerial View of The Landings The Landings Sarasota Commons Sarasota Center... 24

4 4. Centre at University Parkway Sarasota Pavilion Bayshore Gardens Figure 20: Photo: The District at University Town Center The District at University Town Center Cortez Plaza and Cortez Plaza East Shoppes at University Town Center Figure 21: Photo: The Shoppes at University Town Center Centergate Village Plaza and Bee Ridge Plaza Plaza at Palmer Ranch Palmer Crossing Centre Point Commons Figure 22: Photos: Target and Publix at the Plaza at Palmer Ranch Creekwood Crossing Shoppes of Paradise Bay Figure 23: Photos: Traffic at St. Armands Circle SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Estimated 2019 Supportable Retail and Appropriate Tenant Discussion Table 9: Estimated Supportable Retail Table Specific Business Recruitment Recommendations by Retail Category Retail Category Definitions Shopping Center Definitions Rationale Incentive Programs Figure 24: Photos: Modern Storefront Examples Are Too Many Restaurants Locating in the St. Armands Circle Commercial Area? Recommendations about the Balance of Retail for Broad Appeal to the Trade Area Recommendations about the Optimal Balance of Retail in the Targeted Area Commercial Pedestrian Generators to Anchor the Targeted Commercial Area Limits of Study APPENDIX Exhibit A: Business Summary Exhibit B1-6: Community Profile Exhibit C1-2: Housing Profile Exhibit D1-2: Dominant Tapestry Site Map and Legend Exhibit E: Sarasota Market Retail Report Exhibit F: Sarasota Market Office Report Exhibit G: Annual Growth Rate Map Exhibit H: 2014 Median Household Income Exhibit I: 2014 Average Household Income Exhibit J: 2019 Median Household Income Exhibit K: 2019 Average Household Income Exhibit L: 2014 Percentage of Family Households Exhibit M: 2014 Median Home Value Exhibit N: Population 25+ With Bachelor s Degree Exhibit O: 2014 Total Employees... 62

5 INTRODUCTION Figure 1: Bird s-eye view of St. Armands Circle and the neighboring area. Executive Summary This study finds that St. Armands Circle can presently support 74,100 square feet (sf) of additional retail and restaurant development, generating over $30 million in new sales. By 2019, continued hotel and residential development in nearby Downtown Sarasota, coupled with annual tourism growth, will increase demand to support 80,300 sf of total commercial progression, generating up to $36.8 million in sales. This demand could be absorbed by existing retailers and/or with the opening of 27 to 36 new restaurants and shops. As one of Florida s most historic shopping districts, recruiting higher sales-generating tenants or new commercial development can reinforce St. Armands Circle s status as an upscale retail center and provide needed goods and services for the existing full-time and part-time residential base and steadily increasing supply of year-round tourists. Whether deployed in an existing vacancy or as a part of the redevelopment of an under-performing space core, new restaurants and retail could reinvigorate a shopping center and improve the gravitational appeal of the Circle at a time when suburban mall expansion provides a notable threat to existing shopping districts. The leading categories of supportable retail growth are full and limited service restaurants, grocery stores, and general and department store merchandise. St. Armands Circle occupies 28 acres between Lido and Longboat Key in the Sarasota Bay, approximately two miles offshore from Downtown Sarasota and about an hour s drive south of Tampa. John Ringling Causeway/Boulevard is the main access point to St. Armands Circle and bridges the shopping district with the mainland and Downtown Sarasota. John Ringling Causeway St. Armand Circle Market Study 1.

6 connects to N Tamiami Trail, the primary coastal highway connecting Tampa with Fort Meyers. Broken into four quadrants, St. Armands Circle contains several national brands, local boutiques, souvenir shops and restaurants and is one of the main tourist destinations in Sarasota, with 57.1 percent of area tourists having visited the study site. Advantageously located in a well-recognized coastal tourist destination and with the renown of a long-standing and successful shopping district, St. Armands Circle is in a position to expand its presence and broad range of retailers to further its image as one of the premier shopping destinations in Florida. Table 1: 2014 & 2019 Estimated Supportable Retail Business Type Retailers 2014 Supportable 2019 Supportable No. of Stores Apparel Stores 2,100 sf 3,100 sf 1 2 Book & Music Stores 1,500 sf 1,600 sf 1 Craft Spirits & Fine Wine Stores 1,000 sf 1,100 sf 1 Department Store Merchandise 5,700 sf 6,000 sf 1 Electronics Stores 2,400 sf 2,500 sf 1 2 Florists 500 sf 500 sf 1 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 2,100 sf 2,200 sf 1 2 General Merchandise Stores 5,900 sf 6,100 sf 1 2 Gift Stores 1,400 sf 1,500 sf 1 Grocery Stores 9,700 sf 10,300 sf 1 Hardware 3,600 sf 3,800 sf 1 Jewelry & Leather Goods Stores 600 sf 700 sf 1 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,700 sf 1,700 sf 1 2 Pharmacy 6,500 sf 6,800 sf 1 2 Shoe Stores 4,000 sf 4,300 sf 3 4 Specialty Food Stores 1,800 sf 1,800 sf 1 Sporting Goods & Hobby Stores 1,500 sf 1,900 sf 1 Retailer Totals 52,000 55, Restaurants Bars, Breweries & Pubs 2,800 sf 3,100 sf 1 Full-Service Restaurants 2,800 sf 3,900 sf 1 Limited-Service Eating Places 9,400 sf 10,000 sf 3 4 Special Food Services 7,100 sf 7,600 sf 2 3 Restaurant Totals 22,100 sf 24,600 sf 7 9 Retailer & Restaurant Totals 74,100 sf 80,300 sf This study further finds that St. Armands Circle has a primary trade area population of 9,700 persons, increasing to 10,000 persons by The projected annual growth rate is 0.58 percent, lower than state and national levels. In addition to the primary trade area s year-round population living in 5,500 housing units, another 5,700 housing units are reported as seasonal or recreational residences occupied by part-time residents or rented by tourists. Median income in the primary trade area is $95,200 and is expected to reach $110,200 by 2019, more than double the regional and state statistics. Reflecting an older population without children living at home, the average household size is 1.76 while the median age is 70.4 years. 2. St. Armands Circle Market Study

7 The study area also incorporates a total trade area with more regionally comparable demographics. There are 120,300 residents in the area growing to 127,200 by 2019, correlating to an annual growth rate of 1.14 percent. Median household income is $41,400, a slightly lower figure than found in Sarasota County ($45,800) and Florida ($44,900), and 26.2 percent of households annually earn more than $75,000. There are 2.07 persons per household and the average age is 50.6, suggesting the surrounding area contains a younger population than the primary trade area. As the surrounding population increases and hotel development continues, especially in areas on the other side of bridge, St. Armands Circle retail development will continue to attract a wide range of customers to this famed shopping location on Florida s Gulf Coast. Figure 2: St. Armands Circle is located in the Sarasota Bay just over two miles from the core of Downtown Sarasota. Background (GPG) has been retained by The City of Sarasota to conduct a retail feasibility analysis for St. Armands Circle located between Lido and Longboat Key, approximately two miles from Downtown Sarasota via the John Ringling Causeway. The study site is located approximately seven miles west of Interstate-75. As one of Florida s most historic shopping districts, St. Armands Circle has attracted several national brands including Lily Pulitzer, Tommy Bahama and White House/Black Market as well as many local and regional retailers and restaurants. However, without central ownership, the Circle lacks traditional shopping center services like capital investment and maintenance, parking management and public restrooms. The St. Armands Circle Association is a member organization formed in response to the lack of central management and has undertaken programming and events initiatives, wayfinding and mapping, and acts as a liaison between the City of Sarasota and the member merchants. However, as the popularity of the Circle continues, traffic congestion, a lack of parking and no regulatory mechanism for the type and quality of retailers puts St. St. Armands Circle Market Study 3.

8 Armands Circle at a crossroads that has become a concern for many existing retailers. Additionally, the Mall at University Town Center, which is scheduled to open in October of 2014, will increase the retail competition in the market - a threat that has already prompted reactionary plans by the other area malls. St. Armands Circle is in a position to improve its standing amongst area residents and tourists and is interested in designing a complementary tenant mix that will reinvigorate this well-known shopping destination. Figure 3: St. Armands Circle is located just off the mainland in close proximity to Downtown Sarasota. Interstate-75 and the future site of University Town Center are approximately eight miles from St. Armands Circle. GPG addressed the following issues in this study: What is the existing and planned retail market in the study and trade area? What is the primary trade area for St. Armands Circle? What are the population, demographic and lifestyle characteristics in the primary trade area, currently and projected for 2019? What is the current and projected growth for retail expenditures in the primary trade area, now and for the next five years? How much additional retail square footage is supportable in the St. Armands Circle subject site and what retail uses should be encouraged? What sales volumes can development achieve in or near the study area? 4. St. Armands Circle Market Study

9 Figure 4: The St. Armands Circle Association has taken on an organizational role and aided retailers through initiatives such as this map, which is featured in each of the parking lots. Methodology To address the above issues, GPG conducted a detailed evaluation of most major existing centers and retail concentrations in and surrounding the defined trade area. This evaluation was conducted during the week of May 4, During this evaluation, GPG thoroughly drove the market and visited and evaluated most regional, community and neighborhood shopping centers as well as existing and planned residential development. GPG observed the area during the daytime, as well as the evening, to gain a qualitative understanding of the retail gravitational patterns and traffic patterns throughout the study area. GPG then defined a trade area that would serve the retail in the study area based on the field evaluation, geographic and topographic considerations, traffic access/flow in the area, relative retail strengths and weakness of the competition, concentrations of daytime employment, and the St. Armands Circle Market Study 5.

10 retail gravitation in the market, as well as our experience defining trade areas for similar markets. Population, consumer expenditure and demographic characteristics of trade area residents were collected by census tracts from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Esri (Environmental Systems Research Institute). Updates were made when necessary based on information gathered from local planning sources. Finally, based on the projected consumer expenditure capture (demand) in the primary trade area of the gross consumer expenditure by retail category, less the current existing retail sales (supply) by retail category, GPG projects the potential net consumer expenditure (gap) available to support new development. The projected net consumer expenditure capture is based on household expenditure and demographic characteristics of the primary trade area, existing retail competition, traffic and retail gravitational patterns and GPG s qualitative assessment of the St. Armands Circle study area. Net potential captured consumer expenditure (gap) is equated to potential retail development square footage, with the help of retail sales per square foot data provided by Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers (Urban Land Institute and International Council of Shopping Centers), qualitatively adjusted to fit the urbanism and demographics of the study area. Figure 5: St. Armands Circle has attracted national tenants such as Lily Pulitzer (left) and Tommy Bahama (right). For the purposes of this study, GPG has assumed the following: Other major community retail centers may be planned or proposed, but only the existing retail is considered for this study. The quality of the existing retail trade in the study area is projected to remain constant. Gains in future average retail sales per sf reflect higher sales per sf in newly developed retail and selected increases in sales per sf by individual retail categories. No major regional retail centers will be developed within the trade area of this analysis through 2019 for the purpose of this study. The subject site is properly zoned to support development projects with current and innovative standards, and the existing infrastructure (water, sewer, arterial roadways, etc.) can support additional commercial development. Annual population growth for the primary trade area is estimated to be 0.58 percent throughout the five-year period of this study. 6. St. Armands Circle Market Study

11 Employment distribution is projected to remain constant, without a spike or decline in employment by NAICS categories. The projected lease and vacancy rate model is based on our proprietary econometric model of the relationship between changes in employment and changes in vacancy and lease rates. Data was gathered from the U.S. Census Bureau, Esri, CBRE and local brokerage services. The region s economy will continue at normal or above normal ranges of employment, inflation, retail demand and growth. Figure 6: Wayfinding is available in the Circle, but like other existing conditions, it shows signs of wear and neglect. Any new construction in the study area will be planned, designed, built and managed to the best practices of the American Institute of Architects, American Planning Association, American Society of Landscape Architects, Congress for the New Urbanism, International Council of Shopping Centers and The Urban Land Institute. Parking for new development projects or businesses will meet or exceed the industry standards. GPG notes that parking is presently inadequate with several retailers reporting customers unable to find parking on-street or in free lots behind the Circle. A comprehensive parking study and management plan, which will likely involve structured parking, is recommended. Visibility of any new retail is also assumed very good, with signage as required to assure easy visibility of the retailers. Development projects in the study area will open with sustainable amounts of retail and anchor tenants, at planned intervals and per industry standards. Trade Area Based on GPG s field evaluation, the existing retail hubs, population clusters, highway access, and the retail gravitation in the market, as well as our experience defining trade areas for similar communities throughout the United States, GPG determined that consumers in the primary trade St. Armands Circle Market Study 7.

12 area generate demand to support a wide variety of retailers. This potential will continue increasing over the next five years with existing trends and continued residential development, including an annual population growth rate of 0.58 percent and household income growth of 2.96 percent. The primary trade area is the consumer market where the study area has a significant competitive advantage because of access, design, lack of competition and traffic and commute patterns. This competitive advantage equates to a potential domination of the capture of consumer expenditure by the retailers in the study area. Figure 7: The St. Armands Circle primary trade area. Consumers in the primary trade area account for 50 to 60 percent of the business generated in the study area. GPG defined a primary trade area by topography, vehicular access, strength of retail competition and residential growth patterns instead of standardized drive-times. Consumers inside the primary trade area will account for up to 50 to 60 percent of the total sales captured by retailers in St. Armands Circle. The primary trade area is influenced by the strong retail gravitational pull of several convenient regional and community shopping centers in the surrounding suburbs, including the two Westfield Malls south of Downtown and the soon to open Mall at University Town Center, as well as the traffic congestion experienced when traveling to St. Armands during the primary tourist season. GPG finds that the primary trade area accounts for the areas of Lido 8. St. Armands Circle Market Study

13 and Longboat Key, where access to St. Armands is easy and a captive audience of residents and tourists require needed goods and services. The total or community-oriented trade area extends into the mainland to roughly encompass the primary trade area of Downtown Sarasota. The area can generally be defined as the neighborhoods between University Parkway to the north, Clark Road to the south and Honore Road to the east. Residents who live in the total trade area, but not within the primary, will shop St. Armands Circle retailers frequently, but due to the traffic characteristics of the tourist season, the area will not be their primary shopping destination. It is likely 10 to 20 percent of total sales captured by retailers in St. Armands Circle can be accounted for by total trade area residents. Figure 8: The St. Armands total trade area extends to encompass the Downtown Sarasota primary trade area. The remainder of sales captured by St. Armands Circle retailers will be expenditures from nearby workers and tourists. As many as 33,400 employees work within a 10-minute drive of the study site, and over 16,000 are office workers known to generate retail expenditure at a higher rate. Research provided by the Sarasota Conventions and Visitors Bureau reports that Sarasota County hosted 929,000 unique visitors in fiscal year 2013, which is a 5.7 percent improvement over the previous year. These visitors stay 6.5 nights on average and spend over $50 daily on retail and restaurants. With dining out and shopping listed in the top five activities enjoyed while staying in Sarasota, the economic impact for existing and future retailers is an important factor in St. Armands Circle s success. St. Armands Circle Market Study 9.

14 Demographic Characteristics Using data from Esri (Environmental Systems Research Institute) and the U.S. Census Bureau, GPG obtained the most recent population and demographic characteristics (2014) and those projected for 2019 for the defined trade areas, as well as regional and statewide statistics. Table 2: Demographic Comparisons Characteristics Primary Trade Area Total Trade Area Sarasota County Florida 2014 Population 9, , ,200 19,203, Population 10, , ,600 20,174, Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.58% 1.14% 0.73% 0.99% Persons Per Household Median Age Median Household Income $95,200 $41,400 $45,800 $44, Average Household Income $132,100 $67,600 $67,300 $64, Median Household Income $110,200 $50,300 $54,700 $53, Average Household Income $166,500 $81,600 $79,500 $75,200 % Households w. incomes $75, % 26.2% 27.8% 26.9% % Bachelor s Degree or higher 59.3% 30.2% 29.6% 23.1% Table 2: This side-by-side table compares and contrasts primary trade area and total trade area demographic statistics with those of Sarasota County and Florida. The primary trade area s estimated 2014 population is 9,700 persons, which will grow to 10,000 by 2019, a 0.58 percent projected annual increase over the five-year period. This annual growth rate is less than both the Sarasota County and state figures of 0.73 and 0.99 percent respectively. The number of households in the primary trade area is estimated at 5,400, holding 1.76 personsper-household, and is projected to increase to 5,600 by a 3.1 percent total increase over the five-year period. Persons-per-household will remain steady. Approximately 40.2 percent of households are owner-occupied, a proportion that will increase to 40.5 percent through A slight increase in owner-occupied housing is accompanied by a slight decrease in renter-occupied housing, which is changing from 6.0 percent in 2014 to 5.7 percent in The vacancy rate is projected to increase from 53.7 percent to A critical figure to understand the consumer market in the primary trade area is the number of vacant households explained by seasonal or recreation use. Whether these households are occupied part of the year by owners who call another location home, or by tourists who rent properties, 88.9 percent or 5,700 housing units described as vacant can be explained by seasonal or recreational use. The median household income of $95,200 in the primary trade area is more than double the regional and state levels and is estimated to increase at an annual rate of 2.96 percent to $110,200 in Furthermore, average household income of $132,100 is still significantly higher than regional or state levels, and demonstrates the large number of wealthy households in the trade area. In fact, 58.0 percent of households earn $75,000 or more. Educational attainment is higher than state levels, with 59.3 percent of residents earning a bachelor s degree or higher. 10. St. Armands Circle Market Study

15 The total trade area demonstrates demographics more comparable with regional and state statistics. There are 120,300 persons in the total trade area, and an annual growth rate of 1.14 percent will result in a population of 127,200 in In the area s 57,100 households, there are 2.07 persons-per-household, which will stay constant as the number of households increases to 59,300. Median household income is lower in the total trade area, $41,400, increasing to $50,300 by 2019; 26.2 percent of households earn more than $75,000. Average income is similar to regional and state statistics at $67,600. Still more than regional and state averages, 30.2 percent of residents have earned a bachelor s degree or higher, reinforcing the strength and stability of consumers in the surrounding areas. Tapestry Lifestyles Esri (Environmental Systems Research Institute) has developed Tapestry Lifestyles, which is an attempt to create 65 classifications, or lifestyle segments, that help determine purchasing patterns. These segments are broken down to the U.S. Census Block Group level and used by many national retailers to help determine future potential locations. The following Table 3 details the top Tapestry Lifestyles found in the primary trade area. Table 3: Tapestry Lifestyles Lifestyle Trade Area Statistics Short Description Silver and Gold Population 7,100 Median HH Income $62, % Primary Trade Area Households Market Share 0.9% National Market Share Silver and Gold residents are wealthy, educated seniors. With a median age of 60.5 years, Silver and Gold residents are the second oldest of the Tapestry segments. More than 70 percent are aged 55 years or older. Most residents have retired from professional occupations. Half of the households are composed of married couples without children. Silver and Gold residents have the free time and resources to pursue their interests. They travel domestically and abroad including cruise vacations, are interested in home improvement and remodeling projects, and prefer to shop by phone from catalogs such as L.L. Bean and Lands End. The Elders Population 2,600 Median HH Income $38, % Primary Trade Area Market Share 0.6% National Market Share Representing the highest concentration of retirees, The Elders population is growing by 1.22 percent annually. Nine in ten households are either married couples with no children living at home or singles. The small household size of 1.7 reflects those two household types. Informed, independent, and involved, these seniors watch their diets; visit their doctors regularly; take vitamins and dietary supplements; buy low-cholesterol, fat-free, lowsodium, low-calorie, and sugar-free food; and take prescription drugs to manage various health conditions. Golf is important to them; they play golf, buy golf clothes, and watch golf tournaments on TV. They also walk, work crosswords, fish, gamble at casinos, go to the theater, and eat out. They shop at Wal-Mart, Target, and JCPenney. Table 3: The top five Tapestry Lifestyle groups profiled above portray a cluster of aging residents and transitional neighborhoods of old and young households. St. Armands Circle Market Study 11.

16 The trade area s most common tapestry lifestyle group is Silver and Gold, representing 72.2 percent of all households. With a median age of 60.5 years, Silver and Gold residents are the second oldest of the Tapestry segments. More than 70 percent are aged 55 years or older. Most residents have retired from professional occupations. Half of the households are composed of married couples without children. This segment is small, less than one percent of all U.S. households; however, annual household growth is 2.35 percent since This group s affluence enables them to relocate to sunnier climates. More than 60 percent of these households are in the South, mainly in Florida. One-fourth is located in the West, mainly in California and Arizona. Neighborhoods are exclusive, with a home ownership rate of 82 percent. Silver and Gold ranks second of the Tapestry segments for the percentage of seasonal housing. Because these seniors have moved to newer single-family homes, they are not living in the homes where they raised their children. These are wealthy, educated seniors. Their median household income is $62,761. Fifty-six percent of the households still earn wages or salaries, half collect Social Security benefits, 63 percent receive investment income and 35 percent collect retirement income. The percentage of those who work from home is higher than the U.S. worker percentage; nearly one-fourth of employed residents are self-employed, also higher than the U.S. level. Silver and Gold residents have the free time and resources to pursue their interests. They travel domestically and abroad including cruise vacations. Although they own tools and are interested in home improvement and remodeling projects, they are more likely to contract for remodeling and housecleaning services. Active in their communities, they join civic clubs, participate in local civic issues, and write to newspaper or magazine editors. They prefer to shop by phone from catalogs such as L.L. Bean and Lands End. Golf is more a way of life than just a leisure pursuit. They play golf, attend tournaments and watch The Golf Channel. They also go to horse races, and enjoy bird watching, saltwater fishing and power boating. They eat out, attend classical music performances and relax with a glass of wine. Favorite restaurants include Outback Steakhouse, Cracker Barrel and Applebee s. Silver and Gold residents are avid readers of biography and mystery books and watch numerous news programs and news channels such as Fox News and CNN. Favorite non-news programs include detective dramas. The next most common segment, Senior Sun Seekers, follows similar purchasing patterns as Silver and Gold, although because of smaller household incomes, their retail purchases are more limited and are likely to be focused on value over extravagance. Employment Base The employment picture found in the primary trade area reflects a service and retail sector foundation, with additional elevated levels in finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) and manufacturing sectors. Due to the prevalence of these sectors, most others demonstrate diminished levels when compared to the county and the state. As shown in Table 4, the Service sector accounts for the majority of employment (44.5 percent) in the primary trade area and at a similar proportion than demonstrated in the region or state. Within the services category, Other Services accounts for 26.7 percent of total employment followed by Health Services (8.1 percent). Retail is the second leading category of employment in the primary 12. St. Armands Circle Market Study

17 trade area, which can be explained by the concentration of retail at St. Armands Circle and a lack of other major employment centers in the trade area. The third leading category of employment is Finance, Insurance & Real Estate, accounting for 12.5 percent of trade area workers. This is a higher proportion than in any of the other comparative geographies and represents a valuable supply of office workers who can support retail and restaurants throughout the workday. Table 4: Employment Comparison by Sector Sector Primary Trade Area Total Trade Area Sarasota County Florida Agriculture and Mining 1.6% 1.3% 2.2% 2.1% Construction 2.0% 5.8% 8.8% 6.7% Manufacturing 10.3% 3.8% 4.6% 5.5% Transportation 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 3.4% Communication 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% Utility 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% Wholesale Trade 1.3% 2.8% 3.1% 4.6% Retail Trade 24.2% 16.3% 17.9% 17.7% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 12.5% 8.7% 7.7% 6.8% Services 44.5% 48.4% 46.5% 44.8% Government 1.4% 9.9% 5.9% 7.0% Table 4: Services and government comprise the bulk of primary trade area employment. Consumer expenditure from daytime employment compliments that captured in the evenings and on weekends by households in the trade area. Office Worker Retail Spending in a Digital Age, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers in 2012, provides insight into the impact of office worker employment. Weekly office worker expenditure, adjusted for 2014 dollars, is estimated at $181. Weekly non-office worker expenditure, in 2014 dollars, is estimated at 37 percent of office workers. Non-office workers are estimated to have slightly less disposable income, to have multiple work locations including at home and typically are on the road more during their workweek. Retail purchases (general merchandise, apparel, home furnishings, electronics, grocery and convenience items) make up the majority of the office worker dollars, at $120 per week. Restaurant expenditures (full service, limited service and drinking places) account for the balance at $61 per week. Annualized, each office worker expends $9,456 before, during and after work. St. Armands Circle Market Study 13.

18 Employment Sector Table 5: Drive Time Employment by Industry Sector Primary Trade Area 10-minute Drive-time Table 5: There are over 59,000 employees within a 10-minute drive time of Downtown Sarasota. Total Trade Area Agriculture & Mining Construction ,230 Manufacturing ,820 Transportation ,460 Communication Utility Wholesale Trade ,060 Retail Trade 1,350 4,240 12,000 Home Improvement General Merchandise Stores Food Stores ,760 Auto Dealers, Gas Stations, Auto Aftermarket Apparel & Accessory Stores Furniture & Home Furnishings Eating & Drinking Places 710 1,710 4,260 Miscellaneous Retail 150 1,030 2,640 Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 700 3,470 6,410 Banks, Savings, & Lending Institutions ,210 Securities Brokers Insurance Carriers & Agents Real Estate, Holding, Other Investment 570 1,510 3,540 Services 2,480 16,730 35,590 Hotels & Lodging ,470 Automotive Services Motion Pictures & Amusements ,610 Health Services 450 6,920 10,230 Legal Services 20 1,130 1,390 Education Institutions & Libraries ,430 Other Services 1,490 6,580 17,660 Government 80 6,020 7,260 Total Employment 5,580 33,430 73,560 The annual impact of the nearly 33,430 workers within a 10-minute drive time is $44.2 million in prepared food and beverage establishments, $16.3 million in retail goods sales, $5.2 million in grocery purchases, and $7.7 million in convenience items, totaling $73.5 million in expenditure within the trade area. Given the high levels of traffic during the tourism season, it is likely that the expenditure generated by workers varies throughout the year. Further research, including focus groups, are recommended to fully understand the existing policies and physical conditions that shape daytime worker shopping and dining in the area. 14. St. Armands Circle Market Study

19 Table 6: 10-Minute Drive Time Worker Expenditure Category Weekly Expenditure Annual Expenditure % Capture Office Worker Expenditure Non-Office Worker Expenditure Total Expenditure 16,020 17,410 Prepared Food & Beverage Limited & Full Service Restaurants $44 $2, % $28,018,980 $11,266,533 $39,285,513 Drinking Places $17 $ % $3,540,420 $1,423,616 $4,964,036 Retail Goods General Merchandise, Apparel, Home Furnishings, Electronics $70 $3, % $11,662,560 $4,689,558 $16,352,118 Grocery $30 $1, % $3,748,680 $1,507,358 $5,256,038 Convenience Items $20 $1, % $5,498,064 $2,210,791 $7,708,855 Total $181 $9,456 $52,468,704 $21,097,856 $73,566,560 Table 6: Employees within 10 minutes of the study site expend over $73.5 million dollars annually. TRADE AREA CHARACTERISTICS Location Figure 9: The bridge connecting St. Armands Circle with Downtown Sarasota is a popular route for recreational walking and cycling. Encouraging more walking and cycling to the island could aid in reducing congestion. The primary trade area is nicely located along Florida s Gulf Coast approximately one hour from Tampa. Benefiting from the natural amenities of white-sand beaches, the serene blue waters of the Gulf and favorable climate, Longboat Key and Lido Key are among the most popular vacation destinations along Florida s Gulf Coast. The region is well-served by highways, in particular N Tamiami Trail, which is the trade area s primary coastal highway, and the dominant feeder to the John Ringling Causeway. Just two miles from Downtown, St. Armands stands to benefit from the continued hotel and residential expansion expected in the next five years. Increases in the nearby residential base and demonstrated growth in tourism favorably position the study site to expand its broad collection of retailers and improve sales capture. St. Armands Circle Market Study 15.

20 Access The John Ringling Causeway is the primary access to St. Armands Circle; the only other access to Longboat Key and Lido Key is by boat or an additional bridge over 12 miles from the site near Bradenton. Regional linkage is available with N Tamiami Trail and Fruitville Road connecting to the Causeway; however, overall access is limited to the capacity of the bridge and the rate with which cars pass through the Circle. While the bridge could likely handle additional traffic, the limiting factor is the congestion in and around the Circle. Many conditions contribute to congestion in the Circle, but the primary cause is the lack of parking and the cruising for parking motorists do until they find an available spot. Frustrated motorists have resorted to parking in the median leading up to the Circle and many give up and return to the mainland. This has a direct effect on the sales capture of retailers in St. Armands Circle. Table 7: Traffic Counts Location Traffic Count Interstate-75 & Fruitville Road 119,000 N Tamiami Trail & Bahia Vista Street 65,500 Fruitville Road & Lockwood Ridge Road 53,500 Bee Ridge Road & Beneva Road 52,500 N Tamiami Trail & University Parkway 39,500 Washington Blvd. & 17 th Street 37,800 N Tamiami Trail & Fruitville Road 37,500 Ringling Boulevard & Bird Key Drive 37,000 St. Armands Circle & Ringling Boulevard 30,500 University Parkway & Lockwood Ridge Road 29,000 Fruitville Road & N Tamiami Trail 17,800 Boulevard of Presidents & Madison Drive 23,600 Ringling Boulevard & Orange Avenue 9,800 Main Street & Orange Avenue 8,100 Table 7: The traffic chart shows heaviest traffic along Interstate-4, but the east-west connectors (Florida Turnpike and Irlo Bronson Memorial Highway) that connect to SR-429 also carry a significant number of vehicles. While increased parking capacity and a comprehensive parking management plan are needed, additional alternatives should be considered. Many active individuals already walk and bike the bridge for recreation, and this could be promoted as a means to get to St. Armands Circle. With pedestrian enhancements, bicycle infrastructure and a bike-share or rental, it is likely that some patrons will choose this method over joining the traffic jam. Additionally, adding a public transportation route that includes travel between St. Armands Circle and Downtown Sarasota could motivate would-be motorists to leave their car on the mainland. High traffic volumes seen in Table 8 confirm the routes with the best community access: Fruitville Road, N Tamiami Trail and Washington Blvd. In total, these three routes serve over 93,000 cars per day. Reducing the traffic and congestion on and getting to St. Armands Circle could lead to more patrons shopping at St. Armands Circle, including the 33,400 workers within 10-minutes of the study site. 16. St. Armands Circle Market Study

21 Tourism Sarasota has long been recognized as a popular national and international vacation destination. Whether enjoying a local beach, sightseeing at a local attraction or dining out at one of the area s exceptional restaurants, the climate and scenery of Sarasota draws visitors throughout the year. Information provided by the Sarasota Convention and Visitor Bureau reported that Sarasota County hosted 929,000 unique visitors from October 2012 to September 2013, each visitor staying an average of 6.5 nights. Of the parties to visit Sarasota County, 49.2 percent were couples and 31.2 percent were families, which correlates to an average party size of 2.7. The average age of the head of the visiting household was 50.4 years and the median annual household income is estimated at $117,000. Figure 10: Tourists are drawn to Sarasota by the sandy beaches and favorable climate. Tourism plays an integral role in the success of retail in Sarasota. Of the activities visitors reported enjoying while in Sarasota, dining out and shopping were ranked in the top five with 86.4 percent and 60.2 percent of parties, respectively, patronizing the local retail offerings. It is estimated that each tourist in Sarasota spends $122 daily, of which $51.60 can be attributed to purchases at retail, restaurants and grocery stores. When extrapolated to account for the average length of stay and the total number of visitors, it is estimated that tourism had a $311.5 million economic impact on Sarasota County retailers, restaurants and grocery stores. Of the specific attractions visited in Sarasota, St. Armands Circle was the highest ranked with 57.1 percent of visitors shopping and dining in the study area. With advantageous natural amenities and its reputation as a premier shopping destination, the potential capture of the total tourism economic impact by St. Armands Circle retailers contributes to a significant number of retail establishments being supportable in the study area. Other Shopping Areas As part of GPG s evaluation, neighborhood, community and regional shopping centers in the Sarasota market were visited to assess their retail appeal, strength of tenant mix, general maintenance and accessibility. In addition to the onsite inspection of the most significant competing shopping concentrations to the study area, GPG used information from the International Council of Shopping Centers Global Shopping Center Directory. St. Armands Circle Market Study 17.

22 Figure 11: Walkable shopping districts near St. Armands Circle. The strongest regional competition to the study site has yet to open. The Mall at University Town Center, which was originally scheduled to open in 2010, broke ground in 2012 and will open as scheduled on October 16, While this will not be the closest mall to St. Armands, it will have the best regional access and an exceptionally curated list of tenants that will surely attract visitors from a 15-mile trade area and have appeal to the area s tourists. Anchored by Macy s, Dillard s and Saks Fifth Avenue, the Mall at University Town Center will join the District at University Town Center and the Shoppes at University Town Center to create a critical mass of retailers not found elsewhere in the region. Figure 12: University Town Center will open in October of 2014 in a growing commercial area six miles from Downtown. 18. St. Armands Circle Market Study

23 The other two competing regional shopping destinations, Westfield Southgate and Westfield Sarasota, are located 2.5 miles and 7.5 miles, respectively, from Downtown. While St. Armands Circle has survived the opening of these two malls, an aggressive counter to the opening of University Town Center is expected, and plans to rebrand Westfield Southgate as Westfield Siesta Key have been announced. Figure 13: Target and Wal-Mart locations within 10 miles of Downtown Sarasota. In addition to Downtown, there are a few other competing walkable shopping districts. Southside Village lies just 1.5 miles from downtown and includes a local grocery, several restaurants, fashion boutiques, jewelry and multiple salons. Primarily serving the workers of Sarasota Memorial Hospital and the surrounding neighborhoods, the area has appeal in its human scale and eclectic collection of shopping and dining. Four miles south of Southside Village, the Gulf Gate Commercial District is primarily a collection of restaurants and nightlife, although there is a small collection of retailers and services. This area provides ample parking and lacks appropriate pedestrian infrastructure; however, should improvements be made, the desirability of this district as a nightlife destination could threaten the market share of St. Armands restaurants and bars. Lastly, Main Street at Lakewood Ranch is a small, new town center catering to the suburban development near Interstate-75. Displaying national brands like Chico s and Starbucks, there are several full-service and limited-service restaurants, specialty retailers and boutiques of local and St. Armands Circle Market Study 19.

24 regional appeal. The distance may not translate to direct competition, but the advantageous location off Interstate-75 and near University Town Center may draw suburban residents who might have otherwise chosen to enjoy St. Armands Circle. There are eleven Wal-Mart and Target locations within 10 miles of the subject site. These two large format retailers play a large role in defining an overall retail market. Additionally, they are a major source of competition to shopping districts, since they can provide a large variety of goods at low prices with convenient and free parking. While traditionally located along major highways on the suburban periphery, the Wal-Mart Neighborhood Market on N Tamiami Trail follows an emerging preference of these retailers for smaller format stores in more urban locations. Target remains on the periphery, but may seek to deploy an urban format near downtown should the right opportunity and market conditions arise. Table 8: Existing Regional Malls and Community Centers Map Designation Retail Center Name Shopping Center Type Size (sf) Distance to Site Δ Westfield Southgate Regional Mall 421,000 sf 4.4 miles Δ The Mall at University Town Center Regional Mall 860,000 sf 8.7 miles Δ Westfield Sarasota Square Regional Mall 850,000 sf 11 miles Δ Desoto Mall Regional Mall 678,000 sf 12 miles 1 The Landings Community Center 148,300 sf 4.5 miles 2 Sarasota Crossings Community Center 191,000 sf 5.0 miles 3 Sarasota Center Community Center 264,000 sf 5.0 miles 4 Centre at University Parkway Community Center 257,000 sf 6.5 miles 5 Sarasota Pavilion Community Center 365,000 sf 6.6 miles 6 Bayshore Gardens Community Center 330,600 sf 7.5 miles 7 District at University Town Center Community Center 431,000 sf 9.0 miles 8 Cortez Plaza/Cortez Plaza East Community Center 442,300 sf 9.1 miles 9 Shoppes at University Town Center Community Center 400,000 sf 9.2 miles 10 Centergate Village Plaza/Bee Ridge Plaza Community Center 385,400 sf 9.5 miles 11 Plaza at Palmer Ranch Community Center 298,000 sf 9.5 miles 12 Palmer Crossing Community Center 300,000 sf 10.0 miles 13 Centre Point Commons Community Center 119,000 sf 10.1 miles 14 Creekwood Crossing Community Center 417,400 sf 12.3 miles 15 Shoppes of Paradise Bay Community Center 133,000 sf 13.0 miles Table 8: Regional and community shopping centers within 10 miles of St. Armands Circle. 20. St. Armands Circle Market Study

25 Figure 14: The regional and community shopping centers within 10 miles of Downtown Sarasota. See Table 8 for the map designations, shopping center name, classification, size and driving distance from downtown. Shopping Malls 1. Westfield Southgate The closest regional center to Downtown Sarasota (located 4.4 miles south), Westfield Southgate Mall is 421,000 sf of retail real estate owned and operated by Westfield Group. Opened in 1956 as a strip mall originally anchored by two supermarkets, Publix and Winn Dixie's Kwik Chek, along with a W. T. Grant and Woolworths, it was enclosed in 1988 and became upscale in 1996 with the addition of Saks Fifth Avenue. Now also anchored by Dillard s and Macy s, Saks has announced that it is moving to the new Mall at University Town Center, scheduled to open in October In anticipation of this loss, the owner has announced plans to revamp the property as more of a lifestyle center, with 46,000 sf of new restaurants and entertainment planned on what is now surface parking, To capitalize on its location for the many tourists and residents who stay near the beach, the owner intends to change St. Armands Circle Market Study 21.

26 the name of the mall to "Westfield Siesta Key." To heighten the tie between the mall and beach, Westfield also plans to begin complimentary shuttle services to and from beach resorts and hotels to the mall. Figure 15: Westfield Southgate is the closest mall to downtown and is expected to re-brand as Westfield Siesta Key. Retailers include Ann Taylor, Ann Taylor Loft, Banana Republic, Caché, Chico s, Express/ Express Men, GAP, GAP Kids and GAP Baby, J. Jill, MAC, Pottery Barn, SOMA, Talbots and Talbot Petites, The Walking Co., White House/Black Market and Williams Sonoma, among almost 50 inline retailers and restaurants. Redevelopment plans hope to build on the current list of tenants by adding a restaurant and nightlife element. Figure 16: The Mall at University Town Center will be the first mall constructed in Sarasota in over 40 years. (Image source: 2. The Mall at University Town Center The Mall at University Town Center, slated for completion in October 2014, will be anchored by Dillard's, Macy's and Saks Fifth Avenue, and contain roughly 100 other stores and restaurants. 22. St. Armands Circle Market Study

27 Located 8.7 miles from downtown, the $315 million Taubman Centers mall is positioned to be the dominant fashion destination in Sarasota, offering an assortment of merchandise not available in the market today. The majority of the shops and restaurants will be new to the market, including BRIO Tuscan Grille, The Capital Grille, The Cheesecake Factory, Kona Grill and Seasons 52. The first new mall to open in Sarasota in 40 years, it offers 860,000 sf gross leasable area, at the intersection of I-75 and University Parkway. Figure 17: Westfield Sarasota Square is the larger of the two Westfield malls in the trade area and includes Costco. 3. Westfield Sarasota Square Built in 1977, Westfield Sarasota Square is a second Westfield Group-owned property in Sarasota, acquired in Located eleven miles from downtown further south on Tamiami Trail, the 850,000 sf mall generates $195,000,000 in total annual retail sales. AMC Sarasota 12, Costco, JC Penny and Sears anchor nearly 120 stores and services. Notable inline retailers include Aeropostale, American Eagle Outfitters, Champs Sports, Charlotte Russe, Express, Finish Line, Forever 21, Jos. A. Bank, Lenscrafters, Rack Room Shoes and Victoria s Secret. Figure 18: Desoto Square Mall is has little competition, but suffers from a dated look and feel. St. Armands Circle Market Study 23.

28 4. Desoto Square Mall Located in central Bradenton on the corner of N Tamiami Trail and Cortez Road, DeSoto Square Mall is the only indoor shopping mall in Manatee County. Built in 1973, Mason Asset Management acquired the mall in May 2012 from Simon Property Group. Sears, JC Penney, and Macy s anchor the 678,000 sf site, while one vacant anchor space reflects a tired property, which the new management is working to address. It offers 80 stores and services featuring: Claire s, Desoto Dollar Movies, Journeys, Hot Topic, Payless ShoeSource, Rack Room Shoes and Sunglass Hut. Situated 12 miles north of downtown Sarasota, the location has little competition; however, it is likely that Bradenton consumers travel to Sarasota on a regular basis to visit the other malls in the trade area. Community Centers Figure 19: The Landings is one of many community centers located along local highways in the trade area. 1. The Landings The Landings, located on S. Tamiami Trail at Proctor Road, is a community shopping center only 4.5 miles from downtown with easy access to I-75 and other major freeways. Its 148,300 sf GLA features Publix and Office Depot as anchors. Built in 1988 and renovated in 2005, ancillary retail includes Dollar Tree, Jo-Ann Fabrics and Radio Shack. 2. Sarasota Crossings Located only five miles from downtown, Sarasota Crossings is one of the dominant groceryanchored shopping centers in Sarasota County. Anchored by CVS Pharmacy, hhgregg, Office Depot and Publix, the 191,000 sf center is easily accessed one half mile west of I-75 on Fruitville Road, the main east-west corridor to Downtown Sarasota. Built in 1990, it was remodeled in 2006, and Publix recently completed an interior remodel of their store. Managed by Commodore Realty, the property has 36 mainly service and dining-oriented tenants. It is located on a strong retail corridor, next to Sam s Club and across the street from Lowe s and Target. 3. Sarasota Center Across Fruitville Road from Sarasota Crossings the commercial corridor is strengthened with the location of Lowe s Home Improvement, Petland, Target and a Winn-Dixie, along with dining options Longhorn Steakhouse and Chick-fil-A. In all, 264,000 sf of leasable space is situated along the south side of Fruitville Road between I-75 and Honore Road five miles from downtown. 24. St. Armands Circle Market Study

29 4. Centre at University Parkway The Centre at University Parkway is situated at University Parkway & Lockwood Roads in Sarasota, nearly 6.5 miles from downtown. Anchored by a Wal-Mart Supercenter and owned by the Heritage Development Company, it was built in 2002 and upgraded in Of its 257,000 sf of leasable space, 30,000 sf is currently available. 5. Sarasota Pavilion Sarasota Pavilion is a 365,000 sf community center located 6.6 miles south of downtown Sarasota. Managed by Inland American Retail Management, LLC, the center is anchored by Beall s, Marshall s, Michael s, Publix, Ross Dress for Less and Stein Mart. Ancillary retail includes Bed, Bath and Beyond, Books-A-Million, Lane Bryant, Plato s Closet and Ulta, complemented by restaurants such as China One, Five Guys Burgers and Panera Bread. The center has little competition immediately surrounding it. 6. Bayshore Gardens Seven miles from downtown Sarasota, Bayshore Gardens is a busy shopping center located on US 41 just north of 63 rd Avenue, on the south side of Bradenton. It encompasses 330,600 sf of retail space and boasts anchors Publix, Target and T.J. Maxx. Inline retail includes Bon Worth, GNC, Gymboree, Hallmark, Jo-Ann Fabrics and Verizon Wireless, supported by outparcel dining choices such as Duff s Original Buffet, Sam Oh Jung Sushi Bar, Sonic and Taco Bell. Figure 20: The District at University Town Center is an exceptional assortment of large-format retailers. 7. District at University Town Center Adjacent from the future Mall at University Town Center, the District at University Town Center includes 431,000 sf of the area s most extensive assortment of large-format retailers including a 174,000 sf Super Target, Sports Authority, Bed Bath & Beyond, Best Buy, Stein Mart, Golfsmith and Michael s. Well-landscaped with ample parking, the shopping center has been operating in what will become the largest assortment of retail between Tampa and Fort Meyers. Nine miles from downtown, the District is expected to expand by 101,400 sf in the near future. 8. Cortez Plaza & Cortex Plaza East Cortez Plaza is a 273,000 sf retail property located in Manatee County, at Cortez Road W. & 14th Street W. in Bradenton. A 9.5-mile drive north from downtown Sarasota brings you to 274,400sf GLA featuring Burlington Coat Factory, hhgregg and Pet Smart. The plaza opened in 1996 and was renovated in Cortez Plaza East offers169,300 sf GLA near the DeSoto Mall, and features anchors Bed Bath and Beyond, Michael s, Party City and Ross Dress for Less. Built in 1968 and renovated in 1983, additional retail includes Dollar Tree, DOTS, Easyhome, Hancock St. Armands Circle Market Study 25.

30 Fabrics, Payless Shoes, Plato s Closet, Radio Shack, Red Wing Shoes and Sally Beauty. It is a ten-mile drive from downtown Sarasota. 9. Shoppes at University Town Center Located 9.2 miles east of Downtown Sarasota, across from the District at University Town Center and the future Mall at University Town Center, the Shoppes at University Town Center is a power center featuring a strong mix of regional and national chains with convenient access to I-75 via University Parkway. Its 400,000 sf of leasable space is arranged in Districts - The Shoppes at University Town Center (UTC), The Square at UTC and The Market at UT. Managed by Benderson Development Co., it is anchored by BJs Wholesale Club, Marshall s, Pier 1, Nordstrom Rack, Party City and Ross Dress for Less. Other retail includes Homegoods, Jo-Ann Fabric and Crafts and LA Fitness. The Square at UTC includes Staples and Home Depot and the Market at UTC is home to The Fresh Market and Kohl s. Figure 21: The Shoppes at University Town Center is a power center connected to the Square at UTC and the Market at UTC. 10. Centergate Village Plaza & Bee Ridge Plaza Approximately 9.5 miles southeast of downtown, Centergate Plaza enjoys easy access from I-75 to its Bee Ridge at Cattlemen Road location. Publix is the anchor and major draw, with a Walgreen s and Panera Bread nearby. Adjacent to Centergate Village Plaza, Burlington Coat Factory at Bee Ridge Center draws consumers via access from Cattlemen Road. In total, these two centers include 385,400 sf of leasable space in close proximity to Wal-Mart and Home Depot. 11. Plaza at Palmer Ranch Just south of the Westfield Sarasota Square, the Plaza at Palmer Ranch is a 298,000 sf center comprised of Target, Publix and several inline retailers. Serving Palmer Ranch and the surrounding suburbs south of Sarasota, the Plaza at Palmer Ranch is advantageously located on N Tamiami Trail 9.5 miles from downtown. 26. St. Armands Circle Market Study

31 12. Palmer Crossing Palmer Crossing is a well-positioned 300,000 sf community shopping center located within one half mile of I-75 and positioned at the main entrance to Palmer Ranch, one of the largest masterplanned communities in Florida. Built in 1999 and renovated in 2007, it is anchored by Beall s, Office Max and Sweetbay Supermarket. It is a 10-mile drive from downtown. 13. Centre Point Commons Centre Point Commons is a 100 percent leased, community shopping center composed of 119,000 sf of retail developed by the Trammell Crow Company and completed in It is located in the heart of Bradenton s retail corridor, along N Tamiami Trail at US Highway 41 and Cortez Road, in close proximity to DeSoto Square Mall. Its anchor tenants are Best Buy, Dick s Sporting Goods, Lowe s and Office Max. It is an easy 10-mile drive south to downtown Sarasota. Figure 22: The Plaza at Palmer Ranch serves the surrounding suburbs south of Sarasota. 14. Creekwood Crossing Creekwood Crossing mainly serves residents of nearby Lakewood Ranch, a master-planned 8,500-acre community in Manatee County. The 417,400 sf center is located at I-75 & 53rd Avenue E. in Bradenton, over 12 miles northeast of downtown Sarasota. Its anchors are Beall s, Highland Park Furniture and Mattress and Lowe s, supplemented by retail such as Bartlett Jewelers, Beall s Outlet, Dollar Tree, Lane Bryant, Pearl Vision and Sally Beauty Supply and a plethora of dining options. 15. Shoppes of Paradise Bay Thirteen miles north of downtown Sarasota, Benderson Development s Shoppes of Paradise Bay offers 133,000 sf GLA at the intersection of Cortez Road West (SR 684) and 75th Street West in west Bradenton. Key tenants are Winn-Dixie, Marshall s and Beall s Outlet, supported by retail neighbors Dollar Tree and GNC. Dining options are a big draw, with Bonefish Grill, Cold Stone Creamery, First Watch, Stonewood Grill and Starbucks. St. Armands Circle Market Study 27.

32 Figure 23: Despite exceptional pedestrian infrastructure, traffic causes motorists to become impatient with visitors, which decreases the pleasant experience of St. Armands Circle. SUMMARY of FINDINGS This study finds that St. Armands Circle is presently supportable with up to 96,300 sf of additional retail development potentially capturing $35.1 million of expenditures in 2014, growing to 113,900 sf and $46.7 million by This retail development could include: Corner Stores: One corner store at 1,500 to 2,500 sf, located at the end of one of the more travelled quadrants. Convenience Centers: Three to four 10,000-20,000 sf convenience centers located along primary retail streets near the various downtown entries. These centers can include apparel, bakeries, a brewery, department store merchandise, full-service or limitedservice restaurants, electronics or phone stores, gifts, shoes and sporting goods. Infill or Redevelopment: Undeveloped, under-developed or under-performing locations could be enhanced or redeveloped to support the deployment of higher yielding retail and restaurants. To the extent possible, each of these elements should be incorporated into St. Armands Circle in a way that promotes walkability and furthers the image of a vibrant shopping district. 28. St. Armands Circle Market Study

33 The demographics of the primary trade area show a population base of 9,700, which will grow to 10,000 by 2019 at an annual growth rate of 0.58 percent. The persons-per-household is 1.76, and median age is 70.4 years old. The median household income of $95,200 in the primary trade area is more than double the state and national averages. Furthermore, 58.0 percent of households earn more than $75,000 annually and 59.3 percent of residents have attained a bachelor s degree or higher. Employment in the primary trade area heavily favors the service sector (44.5 percent), with elevated levels of retail (24.2 percent) and fire, insurance, and real estate (12.5 percent). There are approximately 33,400 employees within a 10-minute drive of the study site, of which an estimated 16,000 are office workers known to expend at much higher rates during the workweek. These daytime consumers expend over $73.5 million annually, with the restaurant sector leading all others at $39.2 million per year. Tapestry lifestyles in the market reflect a majority base of Silver and Gold households, representing 72.2 percent of all households. Silver and Gold residents are wealthy, educated seniors. With a median age of 60.5 years, Silver and Gold residents are the second oldest of the Tapestry segments. Most have retired from professional occupations and half of the households are composed of married couples without children. They have the free time and resources to pursue their interests. As a renowned tourism destination, Sarasota County hosted 929,000 visitors staying an average of 6.5 nights per trip from October 2012 through September While in Sarasota, tourists spend $51.60 daily on retail, restaurants and groceries, totaling $311.5 million in total economic impact potential to existing and new retailers. Estimated 2019 Supportable Retail and Appropriate Tenant Discussion 13,900 sf Restaurants: Full-service restaurant space of 3,900 sf could involve existing restaurants enhancing the exterior appeal and interior design of their location to generate higher sales. Alternatively, a local restaurant with a suburban presence may consider moving or opening an additional location at St. Armands. Limited-service restaurant space of 10,000 sf should be focused on fast-casual concepts that are tailored to families and maintain an aesthetic standard worthy of a St. Armand s niche. GPG recommends local or regional restaurants for St. Armand s, but for comparison purposes, national restaurants such as Bone Fish Grill, Capital Grill, California Pizza Kitchen, Cosi, J. Alexander s, Olga s Kitchen, Mitchells Seafood or Panera Bread. 10,300 sf Grocery: A local or regional grocery store should anchor the end of one of the quadrants and fulfill the various needs of tourists, snowbirds and full-time residents. 9,400 sf Special Food Services and Specialty Food Stores: The special food services demand of 7,600 sf could be met by a prepared foods section of the grocery store or as a regular stop for food trucks. The remaining 1,800 sf of specialty food stores should offer unique local bakery, produce, meat or seafood products. Food stores such as Ben & Jerry s Ice Cream and Einstein Bagels. St. Armands Circle Market Study 29.

34 6,800 sf Pharmacy: A full-service pharmacy would appeal to residents and tourists. Alternatively, the demand could be split into sub-categories for health and beauty, vitamins and supplements or natural remedies. 6,100 sf General Merchandise: The demand could consist of individually differentiated merchants crafting multi-brand concepts, or coupled with another category s demand to attract a larger national brand like Anthropologie or Urban Outfitters. 6,000 sf Department Store Merchandise: This demand may be split into individual specialty shops or combine with the demand in other categories to attract a larger national brand. 4,300 sf Shoes: This demand would best be filled by high-end fashion footwear such as Allen Edmonds, Cole Haan or Nine West. 3,800 sf Hardware: A full-service hardware store would be well supported by yearround and part-time residents. This demand could also be complemented with the demand for furniture & home furnishings to court an Ace Hardware or similar type retailer. 3,100 sf Apparel: A new apparel retailer to St. Armands should favor high-end to luxury fashion. 3,100 sf Bars, Breweries & Pubs: Recruiting an existing biergarten, brewery or distillery with a suburban location would be a unique addition to St. Armands. Alternatively, a sports bar would complement existing drinking places. 2,500 sf Electronics Stores: A hobby-oriented retailer with tourist appeal could fill the demand. A store like Batteries Plus or Radio Shack would serve the residential population. 2,200 sf Furniture & Home Furnishings: With insufficient demand for a full-size furniture store, this retailer could be a local artisan or a boutique catering to the residential base. 1,900 sf Sporting Goods & Hobby Stores: Potential retailers could focus on water sports such as fishing, surfing or cycling. 1,700 sf Miscellaneous Store Retailers: A number of retailers fit into this category, but a cigar shop, pet store or children s toy store would appeal to residents and tourists. A national retailer such as Brookstone and Fossil could also meet this demand. 1,600 sf Book & Music Store: Potential retailers should maintain up-to-date inventory and/or relevant maps, guidebooks and historical accounts with a local frame. 1,500 sf Gift Stores: Several types of gift stores appeal to visitors; however, St. Armands would benefit from a shop featuring local wares. National retailers such as 30. St. Armands Circle Market Study

35 Papyrus, The Body Shop, L Occitane and Vera Bradley could meet the St. Armand s niche. 1,100 sf Craft Spirits & Fine Wine Store: Potential retailers should have a selection suitable for events or dinner parties, but also libations that a visitor would take home as a memento. 700 sf Jewelry and Leather Goods: A new jewelry store should complement existing retailers or this could be met by an existing retailer expanding their local presence. 500 sf Florist: A florist on St. Armands should be prepared to supply for events at the nearby hotels and event venues. A detailed examination of the supportable sf of retail uses is found in the following Table 9: Table 9: 2014 & 2019 St. Armands Circle Estimated Supportable Retail Table Retail Categories 2014 Gross Demand Retailers 2014 Estimated Sales 2014 Estimated Sales/SF 2014 Supportable Retail SF 2019 Estimated Sales 2019 Estimated Sales/SF 2019 Supportable Retail SF Apparel Stores $27,521,538 $800,084 $375 2,134 $1,290,531 $420 3, Custom Spirits & Fine Wine Stores $4,238,735 $544,989 $540 1,009 $645,935 $605 1,068 1 Book & Music Stores $3,962,675 $415,357 $280 1,483 $491,732 $315 1,561 1 Department Store Merchandise $22,914,966 $1,776,098 $310 5,729 $2,082,842 $348 5,985 1 Electronics Stores $12,179,723 $974,378 $410 2,377 $1,140,476 $460 2, Florists $1,174,783 $156,162 $ $181,994 $ Furniture Stores $4,431,379 $328,069 $325 1,009 $383,294 $365 1,050 1 General Merchandise Stores $36,795,212 $1,839,761 $310 5,935 $2,150,382 $350 6, Gift Stores $7,353,049 $454,022 $320 1,419 $544,788 $365 1, Grocery Stores $68,465,040 $5,550,695 $575 9,653 $6,693,977 $645 10,378 1 Hardware $11,765,534 $907,587 $250 3,630 $1,062,345 $280 3,794 1 Home Furnishings Stores $5,916,079 $338,397 $310 1,092 $395,515 $345 1,146 1 Jewelry & Leather Goods Stores $5,926,304 $299,944 $ $441,153 $ Miscellaneous Store Retailers $7,606,251 $479,980 $290 1,655 $563,101 $325 1, Pharmacy $32,517,423 $3,785,185 $580 6,526 $4,428,618 $650 6, Shoe Stores $6,242,538 $1,872,761 $465 4,027 $2,224,686 $520 4, Specialty Food Stores $4,323,228 $576,172 $325 1,773 $684,056 $365 1,874 1 Sporting Goods & Hobby Stores $6,289,574 $480,563 $320 1,502 $565,581 $360 1,571 1 No. of Stores Retailer Totals $269,624,032 $21,580,203 $380 52,013 $25,971,006 $426 55, Restaurants Bars, Breweries & Pubs $12,228,804 $1,518,143 $540 2,811 $1,834,721 $605 3,033 1 Full-Service Restaurants $51,236,790 $1,470,056 $530 2,774 $2,333,453 $595 3,922 1 Limited-Service Eating Places $40,800,743 $3,305,455 $350 9,444 $4,010,422 $400 10, Special Food Services $18,665,958 $2,211,559 $310 7,134 $2,668,458 $350 7, Restaurant Totals $122,932,295 $8,505,213 $433 22,163 $10,847,054 $488 24, Retail & Restaurant Totals $392,556,328 $30,085,417 $389 74,176 $36,818,060 $437 80, Table 9: Sales stated in constant 2014 dollars St. Armands Circle Market Study 31.

36 Specific Business Recruitment Recommendations by Retail Category Full-Service Restaurants Cameron s Steakhouse Mitchell s Seafood The Cheesecake Factory Woodmont Grill Limited Service Restaurants California Pizza Kitchen Chipotle Cosi Olga s Kitchen Panera Bread Grocery Stores Chuck s Natural Food Marketplace Nature s Food Patch Rollin Oats Market & Cafe Specialty Food Stores Just Baked Godiva Chocolatier Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory Sweet Factory Pharmacy CVS Walgreen General Merchandise Urban Outfitters Department Store Merchandise Brookstone Coach Crabtree & Evelyn MAC Origins The Body Shop Williams-Sonoma Shoes Allen Edmonds Carlo Pazolini Cole Haan Johnston Murphy Marmi Nine West Steve Madden Hardware Ace Hardware Sherwin Williams True Value Hardware Apparel Aritzia Armani Exchange Basler Fashion Betsey Johnson Burberry Club Monaco Dry Goods Francesca s Free People Fresh Produce Guess Hervé Leger Hugo Boss Intermix J. Crew J. McLaughlin Juicy Couture Lacoste Lucky Brand Jeans Madewell Max Mara Maus & Hoffman Orvis Ralph Lauren Salvatore Ferragamo The Limited Tory Burch Bars, Breweries & Pubs Bar Louie Champps Gordon Biersch Brewery Granite City Brewery Electronics & Appliances Bose Radio Shack Sprint Store Verizon Wireless Furniture Crate & Barrel Ethan Allen Restoration Hardware West Elm Sporting Goods C.C. Filson Lucy Ron Jon Surf Shop The North Face Books & Music f.y.e Mojo Book & Music Wilson s Book World Gifts Lego Hallmark Jewelry Bozeman Watch Co. Fossil Gucci Henri Bendel Helzberg Diamonds Louis Vuitton Shinola Tiffany & Co. 32. St. Armands Circle Market Study

37 Retail Category Definitions Retail categories in the Supportable Retail Table correspond to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), the standard used by Federal statistical agencies in classifying business establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data related to the U.S. business economy. The following NAICS codes and definitions are provided by the U.S. Census Bureau: Retail Auto Supply Stores (4411): establishments known as automotive supply stores primarily engaged in retailing new, used, and/or rebuilt automotive parts and accessories, automotive supply stores that are primarily engaged in both retailing automotive parts and accessories and repairing automobiles; establishments primarily engaged in retailing and installing automotive accessories; and establishments primarily engaged in retailing new and/or used tires and tubes or retailing new tires in combination with automotive repair services. Furniture Stores (4421): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new furniture, such as household furniture (e.g., baby furniture box springs and mattresses) and outdoor furniture; office furniture (except those sold in combination with office supplies and equipment); and/or furniture sold in combination with major appliances, home electronics, home furnishings and/or floor coverings. Home Furnishings Stores (4422): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new home furnishings (except furniture). Electronics and Appliance Stores (4431): establishments primarily engaged in retailing the following new products: household-type appliances (refrigerator, dishwasher, oven), cameras, computers/software, televisions and other electronic goods. Hardware Stores (4441): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new building materials and supplies (lumber, plumbing, electrical, tools, housewares, hardware, paint, and wallpaper). Lawn and Garden Supply Stores (4442): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new lawn and garden equipment and supplies. (Nursery, farm and garden products, outdoor power equipment). Grocery Stores (4451): establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of food products (canned/frozen food, fruits and vegetables, meat, fish, poultry, milk, bread, eggs, soda). Specialty Food Stores (4452): establishments primarily engaged in retailing specialized lines of food (meat, fish/seafood, fruits/vegetables, baked goods, candy, nuts, confections, popcorn, ice cream, items not made on the premises). Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores (4453): establishments primarily engaged in retailing packaged alcoholic beverages, such as ale, beer, wine and liquor. St. Armands Circle Market Study 33.

38 Health & Personal Care Stores (4461): establishments primarily engaged in retailing health and personal care products (pharmacies/drug stores, first aid, beauty products, household supplies, candy, prepackaged snacks, optical goods, vitamins/supplements). Clothing stores (4481): men s and boys clothing stores; women s and girls clothing stores; children s and infants clothing stores; family clothing stores; clothing accessories. Shoe Stores (4482): shoes (men s, women s, child/infant, athletic). Jewelry Stores (4483): jewelry, luggage, and leather goods (silverware, watches, clocks, handbags, briefcases, belts, gloves). Sporting Goods Stores (4511): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new sporting goods (fitness equipment, bikes, camping, uniforms and footwear). Book & Music Stores (4512): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new books, newspapers, magazines, and prerecorded audio and video media. Department Stores (4521): establishments known as department stores primarily engaged in retailing a wide range of the following new products with no one merchandise line predominating: apparel; furniture; appliances and home furnishings; and selected additional items, such as paint, hardware, toiletries, cosmetics, photographic equipment, jewelry, toys and sporting goods. Merchandise lines are normally arranged in separate departments. General Merchandise Stores (4529): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new goods in general merchandise stores (except department stores) (warehouse clubs, supercenters, apparel, auto parts, dry goods, hardware, groceries, housewares, no line predominating). Florists (4531): establishments known as florists primarily engaged in retailing cut flowers, floral arrangements, and potted plants purchased from others. These establishments usually prepare the arrangements they sell. Office Supplies & Gift Stores (4532): establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) retailing new stationery, school supplies, and office supplies; (2) retailing a combination of new office equipment, furniture, and supplies; (3) retailing new office equipment, furniture, and supplies in combination with retailing new computers; and (4) retailing new gifts, novelty merchandise, souvenirs, greeting cards, seasonal and holiday decorations and curios. Miscellaneous Retailers (4539): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new miscellaneous specialty store merchandise (except motor vehicle and parts dealers; furniture and home furnishings stores; consumer-type electronics and appliance stores; building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers; food and beverage stores; health and personal care stores; gasoline stations; clothing and clothing accessories stores; sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores; general merchandise stores; florists; office supplies, stationery, and gift stores; and used merchandise stores). Pet supplies, art dealers, manufactured home dealers, tobacco/cigar stores, 34. St. Armands Circle Market Study

39 Restaurants Full-Service Restaurants (7221): establishments primarily engaged in providing food services to patrons who order and are served while seated (i.e., waiter/waitress service) and pay after eating. Establishments that provide these types of food services to patrons with any combination of other services, such as carryout services are classified in this industry. Limited-Service Restaurants (7222): establishments primarily engaged in providing food services where patrons generally order or select items and pay before eating. Most establishments do not have waiter/waitress service, but some provide limited service, such as cooking to order (i.e., per special request), bringing food to seated customers, or providing off-site delivery (cafeterias, snack/ juice bar, ice cream/soft serve shops, cookie shops, popcorn shops, donut shops, coffee shops, bagel shops). Special Food Services (7223): establishments primarily engaged in providing one of the following food services (2) a location designated by the customer; or (3) from motorized vehicles or non-motorized carts. Food Service Contractors: establishments may be engaged in providing food services at institutional, governmental, commercial, or industrial locations of others based (cafeteria, restaurant, and fast food eating-place) on contractual arrangements with these types of organizations for a specified period of time. Management staff is always provided by the food services contractor. Caterers: providing single event-based food services. These establishments generally have equipment and vehicles to transport meals and snacks to events and/or prepare food at an off-premise site. Banquet halls with catering staff are included in this industry. Examples of events catered by establishments in this industry are graduation parties, wedding receptions, business or retirement luncheons and trade shows. Mobile Food Services: establishments primarily engaged in preparing and serving meals and snacks for immediate consumption from motorized vehicles or non-motorized carts. The establishment is the central location from which the caterer route is serviced, not each vehicle, or cart. Included in this industry are establishments primarily engaged in providing food services from vehicles, such as hot dog carts and ice cream trucks. Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) (7224): establishments primarily engaged in preparing and serving alcoholic beverages for immediate consumption (bars, taverns, nightclubs). Shopping Center Definitions This study utilizes the shopping centers typologies defined by the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) as follows: Convenience Centers: Convenience centers are 30,000 sf or less, unanchored, and generally will service a trade area of up to one mile. These centers include banking, carryout foods, florists, mail centers, small restaurants, small food markets, and professional services such as real estate and financial consulting. The centers typically include six to eight businesses. St. Armands Circle Market Study 35.

40 Neighborhood Centers: Neighborhood centers are anchored with a full-sized supermarket and typically range from 60,000 to 100,000 sf. They service a trade area of two to three miles and can include apparel, banks, carryout food, hardware, mail centers, restaurants, sporting goods and professional services such as financial consulting and real estate. Community Centers: Community centers typically range from 150,000 to 300,000 sf and are almost always anchored with a full-sized department store. They also include junior anchor retailers selling books, crafts, shoes, and sporting goods. Community centers often include large home improvement stores and medium-sized discount apparel stores. Their service area is typically five to seven miles in suburban locations. Lifestyle Centers: Lifestyle centers average 150,000 to 200,000 sf and feature popular apparel, book, and home furnishing stores, as well as cinemas and a wide selection of themed restaurants. The centers are frequently planned as walkable areas with main streets. Recently, lifestyle centers have included large anchors such as department stores, public libraries, and supermarkets. These centers typically have a trade area of four to six miles when developed in suburban settings. Lifestyle centers that include civic, employment, and residential buildings along with the retail land use are defined as town centers. Regional Centers: Regional centers average trade areas of eight to 12 miles and are anchored with multiple department stores. The centers can range from 800,000 to 1,500,000 sf, and often include cinemas along with 200,000 sf of national brand fashion. Rationale The rationale for the findings in this study follows: Strong daytime employment base: There are over 33,400 employees within a 10-minute drive of the study area. These daytime consumers expend $73.5 million annually in the local economy and supplement retail demand of the residential consumer base. Strong trade area incomes: Residents living within the primary trade demonstrate income levels that are more than double regional and state figures. High incomes translate to a significant amount of disposable income that these residents spend in the retail market. This is further reinforced by the dominance of the Silver and Gold tapestry segment, a group known for retail expenditure. Potential for tourism expenditure: Sarasota County hosted 929,000 unique visitors in the fiscal year. These tourists generated $311.5 million in consumer expenditures and factor into the success of many retailers throughout the county. Furthermore, 57.1 percent of visitors reported visiting St. Armands Circle and likely contribute significantly to captured retail expenditure by study area merchants. 36. St. Armands Circle Market Study

41 Incentive Programs Figure 24: Many of Sarasota s existing storefronts are outdated and do not meet generally accepted modern shopping center standards as shown above. Above left: Winter Park, Florida and above right: Petoskey, Michigan storefronts. The greater Sarasota region, including St. Armands Circle, is considered a desirable location for many retailers and developers to deploy new businesses. However, additional resources can be implemented by the city or Chamber of Commerce to attract targeted stores and restaurants into the city or to a specific location. Please find below GPG s recommended incentive programs, organized in the priority of effectiveness, for the city to consider: 1. Business Recruitment: The city should consider retaining a qualified business recruitment consultant and/or staff member to identify and approach potential retailers and restaurants to open a new business in the city as a whole, or at a specific location. As a part of this activity, the city should be active in the International Council of Shopping Centers, attend and set up booths at regional and national leasing conventions and advertise the city in trade magazines. The recruitment agent should also comb a broad section of Florida for prospective businesses and network with industry insiders to identify retailers and restaurants for St. Armands Circle. 2. Facade Enhancement: Surprisingly, many of Sarasota s business storefronts, signage and awnings are dated, tattered and below generally accepted industry standards. Unfortunately, St. Armands Circle will appear even more outdated as new shopping centers open. GPG recommends the city begin the following three-part program to improve the appearance of its storefronts: a. Financial Assistance Program: Implement a revolving matching fund to provide low interest loans for storefront, signage and awning improvements. b. Design Assistance: Offer low cost, professional storefront, interior visual merchandising and store planning design assistance to existing and incoming businesses. c. Signage Design Regulations: Implement new St. Armands Circle storefront, awning and signage regulations to meet or exceed modern shopping center standards, as will be constructed at the region s new shopping centers. St. Armands Circle Market Study 37.

42 3. Sunset Policy: Implement a sunset policy requiring existing properties to adapt the city s new (above) storefront, signage and awning design standards within five years of the new design code. Are too Many Restaurants Locating in the St. Armands Circle Commercial Area? Does the Proliferation of Restaurants, Bars and Other Food Related Businesses Present a Current or Potentially Future Problem? This study finds that the St. Armand s Circle commercial area statistically does not have too many restaurants represented by an $89.1 million trade area retail gap in prepared food related categories, which could result in 24,600 sf of additional restaurant development and $10.8 million in sales by The potential for future development breaks down into 3,000 sf of drinking places ($1.8 million in sales), 3,900 sf of full-service restaurants ($2.3 million in sales), 10,000 sf of limited-service restaurants ($4.0 million in sales) and 7,600 sf of special food services ($7.6 million in sales). A vibrant restaurant component is essential to the success of an urban shopping district and ensures healthy levels of pedestrian activity throughout the day and evening, which in turn translates to a safe and well-received commercial area. However, current restaurant occupancy and the potential for continued development present specific challenges. Retailer interviews conducted during an initial field analysis reveal that some existing restaurant practices are resulting in conditions perceived as detrimental to St. Armands Circle, namely dirty or under-maintained storefronts, trash and excessive noise. While not specifically noted, restaurants, especially those serving alcohol, generally require more police resources than other retail categories. Additionally, there is a concern that vacated retail locations filled with restaurants willing to pay a higher rent could result in a decreased supply of suitable retail space and an overall shift in the ratio of restaurant to retail offerings. Although this study finds a demand for additional restaurants in St. Armands, GPG cautions that too many restaurants will further erode the shopping district s existing critical mass of retailers, with the potential to eventually create an entertainment district. GPG recommends St. Armands attempt to regain its historical balance as a premium shopping destination, balanced with supporting restaurants and cafes. The study proposes the following recommendations to mitigate any negative effects of additional restaurant development: 1. Review existing codes and consider revisions to ensure restaurant frontages are routinely cleaned and maintained. If needed, hire additional code enforcement staff. 2. Review existing shared space maintenance and waste management practices and consider an assessment for increased services. The current opt-in maintenance fee paid by participating merchants should be replaced by a district wide-assessment collected and administered by the city. 3. Review recent public safety history in connection with district restaurants and bars and assess police department resources to deal with additional nightlife capacity. 4. Consider a legacy distinction for existing retail uses that encourages building owners and/or landlords to attempt for a specified period of time to fill vacated spaces with a like or similar retail use. Support effort by maintaining a business directory of merchants and operators who would likely move downtown in the future and their desired site conditions. 38. St. Armands Circle Market Study

43 Recommendations about the Balance of Retail for Broad Appeal to the Trade Area With a trade area composed of high incomes, strong tourism and a median age nearly double the national average, the current retail composition is an unfocused mix ranging from discount beach stores to luxury national retailers. Historically, St. Armands was a center of upscale to luxury retailers, restaurants and department stores that have unfortunately slowly left. However, as a nationally recognized tourist destination, St. Armands should focus on targeted premium specialty retailers and restaurants such as Allen Edmonds, Club Monaco, Coach, J. McLaughlin, Lacoste, Ralph Lauren and Shinola. Maintaining the high-end allure while encouraging a diversity of retailers with cross-generational merchandising should be the focus of St. Armands. The current stratification of value-intensive t-shirt and tourist shops confuses the shopping district between a sought-after shopping destination and an ordinary coastal town and jeopardizes the historic identity and economic sustainability of St. Armands Circle. Recommendations about the Optimal Balance of Retail in the Targeted Area The St. Armands Circle area currently has an unbalanced business mix of discount tourist shops and quick service food mingled with luxury retailers and gourmet restaurants. The area s large population of visitors, above-industry sales figures and strong demographics indicate a potential to significantly upscale its merchandise mix. In economic terms, the optimal balance of retail could be considered as sufficient categories and number of retailers to meet the trade area demand of residents, workers, tourists and students as such that there is no surplus demand. However, taking into consideration the current tenant composition of St. Armands Circle in comparison with similar shopping districts, we are able to understand the successful balance of desired shopping districts. This analysis suggests St. Armands Circle should focus efforts in recruiting retailers in the following upscale to luxury categories: apparel and accessories (including jewelry), department store type goods, a gourmet grocery, health and personal care (pharmacy) and shoes. Commercial Pedestrian Generators to Anchor the Targeted Commercial Area St Armands Circle is a historic walkable shopping district with a wide range of retailers and popular restaurants that attracts a steady stream of pedestrian traffic throughout the day. While no single store or restaurant is the dominant generator of traffic, the diversity of offerings and daytime and evening appeal ensure significant foot traffic throughout the day. A grocery store, pharmacy and a hardware store could increase regular pedestrian traffic from trade area residents in and out of the tourist season. Limits of Study The findings of this study represent GPG s best estimates for the amounts and types of retail projects that should be supportable in the study area. Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this study reflect the most accurate and timely information possible and are believed to be reliable. This study is based on estimates, assumptions, and other information developed by GPG independent research effort, general knowledge of the industry and consultations with the client and its representatives. This study is designed as objective third party research and GPG does not recommend that any or all of the supportable retail be developed in the study area. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, its agent and representatives or in any other data source used in preparing or presenting this study. This report St. Armands Circle Market Study 39.

44 is based on information that was current as of June 25, 2014 and GPG has not undertaken any update of its research effort since such date. This report may contain prospective financial information, estimates, or opinions that represent GPG s view of reasonable expectations at a particular time, but such information, estimates, or opinions are not offered as predictions or assurances that a particular level of income or profit will be achieved, that particular events will occur, or that a particular price will be offered or accepted. Actual results achieved during the period covered by our prospective financial analysis may vary from those described in our report, and the variations may be material. Therefore, no warranty or representation is made by GPG that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will be achieved. The actual amounts of supportable retail could be significantly higher or lower depending on multiple market and not market variables including the type, design and quality of the new development. It is plausible that a walkable retail development, with well-designed buildings and public realm, could draw visitors from beyond this study s estimated trade area boundaries and considerably outperform the site s location and limited market potential. This would require an extraordinary development team and retailer mix unique to the market, including anchor retailers. On the other hand, a poorly implemented commercial center or badly managed businesses could underperform the location. This study should not be the sole basis for programming, planning, designing, financing, or development of any commercial center. This study is for the use of The City of Sarasota for general planning purposes only, and is void for other site locations or developers. -- END OF ANALYSIS St. Armands Circle Market Study

45 Gibbs Planning Group Appendix EXHIBIT A St. Armands Circle Market Study 41.

46 Appendix EXHIBIT B1 Gibbs Planning Group 42. St. Armands Circle Market Study

47 Appendix EXHIBIT B2 Gibbs Planning Group St. Armands Circle Market Study 43.

48 Appendix EXHIBIT B3 Gibbs Planning Group 44. St. Armands Circle Market Study

49 Appendix EXHIBIT B4 Gibbs Planning Group St. Armands Circle Market Study 45.

50 Appendix EXHIBIT B5 Gibbs Planning Group 46. St. Armands Circle Market Study

51 Appendix EXHIBIT B6 Gibbs Planning Group St. Armands Circle Market Study 47.

52 Appendix EXHIBIT C1 Gibbs Planning Group 48. St. Armands Circle Market Study

53 Appendix EXHIBIT C2 Gibbs Planning Group St. Armands Circle Market Study 49.

54 Appendix EXHIBIT D1 Gibbs Planning Group 50. St. Armands Circle Market Study

55 Appendix EXHIBIT D2 Gibbs Planning Group St. Armands Circle Market Study 51.

56 Appendix EXHIBIT E Sarasota Market Retail Report 52. St. Armands Circle Market Study

57 Appendix EXHIBIT F Sarasota Market Office Report St. Armands Circle Market Study 53.

58 Appendix EXHIBIT G Gibbs Planning Group 54. St. Armands Circle Market Study

59 Appendix EXHIBIT H Gibbs Planning Group St. Armands Circle Market Study 55.

60 Appendix EXHIBIT I Gibbs Planning Group 56. St. Armands Circle Market Study

61 Appendix EXHIBIT J Gibbs Planning Group St. Armands Circle Market Study 57.

62 Appendix EXHIBIT K Gibbs Planning Group 58. St. Armands Circle Market Study

63 Appendix EXHIBIT L Gibbs Planning Group St. Armands Circle Market Study 59.

64 Appendix EXHIBIT M Gibbs Planning Group 60. St. Armands Circle Market Study

65 Appendix EXHIBIT N Gibbs Planning Group St. Armands Circle Market Study 61.

66 Appendix EXHIBIT O Gibbs Planning Group 62. St. Armands Circle Market Study