CLIMATE CHANGE & THE CARIBBEAN 3 TAKE AWAY MESSAGES

Transcription

1 CLIMATE CHANGE & THE CARIBBEAN 3 TAKE AWAY MESSAGES

2 Climate Change... Distinct changes in measures of climate (rainfall, temperature, wind speed, etc.) lasting for a long period of time due to human actions.

3 Climate Change... Distinct changes in measures of climate (rainfall, temperature, wind speed, etc.) lasting for a long period of time due to human actions. CO 2 40% CH 4 50%

4 Climate Change... Distinct changes in measures of climate (rainfall, temperature, wind speed, etc.) lasting for a long period of time due to human actions.

5 Climate Change... Distinct changes in measures of climate (rainfall, temperature, wind speed, etc.) lasting for a long period of time due to human actions. Climate Change & the Caribbean 3 take away messages

6 Note Our Climate is changing! We are in a regime of unfamiliar climate variability our climate is not behaving as it used to It s gotten hotter Day time temperatures Rain is more variable Total Rainfall Night time temperatures Intense Rainfall Stephenson et al (204) ~ degree rise since preindustrialized times. () Very variable rainfall pattern + some places getting wetter, some getting drier + (3) nature of rain is changing

7 Note Our Climate is changing! We are in a regime of unfamiliar climate variability our climate is not behaving as it used to More extremes present Sea levels are rising at about a rate of 3.5 mm/yr (post 993) Changing climate leads to changing weather and extreme events. Higher Sea Levels Negril Tree 2003 tree line 2003 base of beach 97 tree line 97 base of beach 200 m

8 Note Our Climate is changing! We are in a regime of unfamiliar climate variability our climate is not behaving as it used to Hotter temperatures + Variable Rain + More extremes + Higher sea levels Unfamiliarity in magnitude (e.g. much hotter on land or ocean) or timing (e.g. dry when we expect wet or wet when we expect dry) or frequency (e.g. more storm events) or duration (e.g. longer droughts). Onset of an unfamiliar new climate regime. SO WHY TAKE NOTICE?

9 Note Our Climate is changing! Caribbean is extremely climate sensitive Embedded Climate Patterns We pattern our lives around climate. Topography and size We live on steep slopes or on limited coastal plains. Livelihood, Wellbeing and Water Economy (Agriculture, Tourism, Fisheries, Mining), Health and Wellbeing (diseases and recreation) and Critical livelihood sectors (Water) bound up with climate 9

10 Note Our Climate is changing! Unfamiliarity is transforming our sensitivity into a vulnerability... Food Fires Education Energy Livelihoods Economy 204 Drought Climate impacts total life!!!

11 CC & the Caribbean TAKE AWAYS Note Our climate is changing!

12 Account Our Climate will keep changing! Our future will see unprecedented climate change. 2 Account! Models Scenarios or Storylines of future global development Future Climate Temperature Rainfall Extremes Sea Level Rise

13 Account Our Climate will keep changing! Our future will see unprecedented climate change. hotter times drier conditions 2 Account! -4 degrees by century s end 30-98% of days annually will be hot by the 2090s Only 2% cool by the 2080s Still variable but less ~30% drier. Shorter rainy season Longer, more severe droughts

14 Account Our Climate will keep changing! Our future will see unprecedented climate change. more intense events higher sea levels 2 Account! Storms, with higher rainfall rates and stronger winds. Impacts from a 2m SLR on Jamaica Land area lost (%). People displaced (%). Damage or loss to power plants (20%) Tourism resorts damaged or lost (8%). Loss or damage of airports (60%). Loss of roads (2%). Loss or damage to port structures (00%) - UNDP/CARIBSAVE (200)

15 Account Our Climate will keep changing! Our future will see unprecedented climate change. -4 degrees hotter 30% drier More intense extremes -2 m sea level rise 2 Account! Unprecedented climate change SO WHY TAKE ACCOUNT?

16 Pervasive Account Our Climate will keep changing! Our future will see unprecedented climate change. Unprecedented climate = Unprecedented impacts!! 2 Account! Unequally Distributed Expanding

17 Account Our Climate will keep changing! With unprecedented climate, life as we now know it is under serious threat. We must account for climate in our developmental planning. 2 Account! Water Agriculture We are heading towards a water deficit. Challenge to deliver safe & adequate water to all. Some areas are becoming less suitable for agriculture, while the interior is becoming better suited for crops. Challenge of food security & nutrition.

18 Account Our Climate will keep changing! With unprecedented climate, life as we now know it is under serious threat. We must account for climate in our developmental planning. 2 Account! Coastal infrastructure & livelihoods Health Increasing challenge to deliver adequate health care in an already over-burdened system.

19 CC & the Caribbean TAKE AWAYS Note Our climate is changing! 2 Account! Account Our climate will keep changing! 9

20 Action Our Climate demands we change! WHO? 2 Account! 3 Action! WHY? We can t know what we know about how climate is and will later alter Caribbean life and existence and do nothing!

21 Action Our Climate demands we change! WHAT? Mitigation Adaptation Education 2 Account! changing so we reduce the amount of greenhouse gases we put in the atmosphere Energy changing in order to live with the changed climate Farming practices engendering behavioral change 3 Action! Waste Water harvesting Sea walls Conscious, convinced & convicted about the issue Forests Policies

22 Action Our Climate demands we change! 2 Account! 3 Action! WHAT? Mitigation changing so we reduce the amount of greenhouse gases we put in the atmosphere WHAT CHARACTERISTICS? Impactful but sensitive Transformative but just Technological but human Urgent but timely Adaptation changing in order to live with the changed climate Acknowledges responsibility and responsibilities Inclusive as opposed to prescriptive Education engendering behavioral change

23 CC & the Caribbean TAKE AWAYS Note Our climate is changing! 2 Account! Account Our climate will keep changing! 3 Action! Action Our climate demands we change! 23

24 THANK YOU