PREMFIRE. Final Presentation, ESRIN, 17 January Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

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1 Final Presentation, ESRIN, 17 January 2003 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

2 AGENDA! Overview! Objectives! Architecture! Reference System! Field Device System! Communication System! Project Main Activities! Scenarios for Evolution! Highlights! Business Strategy 2 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

3 O VERVIEW An system existing at CNIG (RISE) was the starting point Requirements defined by ESRIN/CNIG ESA Open Competition tender limited to Portugal Project awarded to consortium Critical Software / IGP Total budget ~ 180K ; Total Duration 12 Months The primary final user is SNPC (Portuguese Civil Protection) Aimed at being deployed in other Mediterranean Countries 3 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

4 OBJECTIVES (1) To extend the RISE system into the field of operations 4 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

5 OBJECTIVES (2) To implement Fire Risk Map Generation features and an integrated automatic alert system Meteorological Data Automatic Fire-Risk Alert Messages NOAA LANDSAT Central Repository 5 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

6 OBJECTIVES (3) To integrate Wireless communication capabilities To integrate GIS capabilities To integrate positioning capabilities (raster images and vectorial layer) 6 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

7 ARCHITECTURE Central Repository Fire Risk Map Reference Sub-system Wireless Communication Sub-system Meteorological Data NOAA LANDSAT Field Device Sub-system 7 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

8 REFERENCE SUBSYSTE M (1) Administration Tool " Parameter setting, user management, Fire Risk Maps Generation (FPI) Automatic Alert System Reference Server (Central Repository) " Stores information required for fire combat and prevention 8 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

9 REFERENCE SUBSYSTE M (2) Meteorological Data Central Repository USER FPI Generation and Automatic Alert System NOAA FPI Configuration LANDSAT Administration Tool 9 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

10 FIELD DEVICE SUBSYSTE M (1) PDA provides " Wireless communication capabilities (based on GPRS), " Navigation capabilities (based on GPS) Cartographic information Download and Visualization Emergency Situations Management Infrastructures Management Reference Server information update 10 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

11 FIELD DEVICE SUBSYSTE M (2) = + + Field Device PDA (Hand Size) GPS Card (Positioning) GPRS Card (Mobility) 11 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

12 FIELD DEVICE SUBSYSTE M (3) Central Repository " Multiple Accesses " Mobility " Positioning " Offline/online modes Wireless Communication System 12 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

13 CO M M UN ICATION SUBSYSTE M (1) Modular structure (portability in mind) Presently using GPRS or GSM technology May use other technologies (TETRA, TETRAPOL, UMTS, etc..), Only dependent of availability of hardware cards for these alternative technologies 13 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

14 CO M M UN ICATION SUBSYSTE M (2) OR Mobile Phone (infrared link) Wireless Cards 14 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

15 PROJECT M AIN ACTIVITIES Users Requirements definition, Solution evaluation and specification Fire Risk Map methodology definition Software development FPI generation and automatic alert system, Administration tool, FPI configuration and Field Device application Communication System definition and implementation System integration System transference Project WP Project Management & Quality Assurance WP Analysis, Design and Requirements Definition WP Fire risk maps methodology WP Software Development WP Development of the telecommunication testbed WP System Integration and Service Implementation WP System Validation, Testing and Review 15 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

16 SCEN A RIOS FOR EV O L UTION (1) " Infrastructures Enhancement " Completing the infrastructures set of operations " Generic module to insert any type of infrastructures " Enhanced Integration " Migrating the field device software code to C++ " Integrating both field device components " Communication technologies " Deploy other wireless communication technologies (Tetra, UMTS) " Portability Enhancement " The GPS coordinates " The GIS module (adaptable files to allow any coordinate system) 16 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

17 SCEN A RIOS FOR EV O L UTION (2) " Leverage the existing infrastruture into other application fields " Maritime pollution prevention and combat (e.g. oil spills) " Natural disasters (floods, earthquakes, volcano, etc..) " Large event management " Security (Police, national guard,..) " Etc 17 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

18 SCEN A RIOS FOR EV O L UTION (3) Fire Risk Maps " Development of fuel models and respective dead fuel moisture extinction values, specifically related to forest classes used on land cover maps available in Portugal " Utilization/combination of NDVI data from new sensors with spatial resolution of 1-km or greater " Identification of the suitable historical period for the acquisition of maximum and minimum NDVI historical values " Optimisation of best interpolation methods for 10-hour time lag dead fuel moisture estimation " Identification and inclusion of representative human induced variables in feasible models of fire risk 18 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

19 HIGHLIGHTS 1. Mobile system 2. Hand size system 3. Automatic Alert system for fire prevention 4. User-friendly (visual) interfaces. 5. Full-duplex communications (near real-time) 19 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

20 PRE MFIRE BUSINESS STRATEGY - is not an END but the BEGINNING - Productize and market - Business opportunities to exploit - Commercialize solution - Leverage infrastructure into other domains - Demonstrate capabilities and know-how through - What we have done so far: - Product Image, Commercial Brochure - Dissemination in Workshops/Conferences - Presentation to potential customers - Presentation to potencial integration partners. 20 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

21 FINAL NOTES - will only be a success in the short-term when fully deployed at SNPC in Portugal. - success in the medium/long term should be measured in terms of new markets and business it is able to bring to the company. 21 Copyright Critical Software SA Allrightsreserved

22 - - Prevention and Mitigation of Fire Hazard in Portugal FIRE RISK MAPS METHODOLOGY Final Meeting [ESA - Rome, 17 January 2003] Mário Caetano Hugo Carrão Sérgio Freire Portuguese Geographic Institute, Portugal 1

23 Summary Introduction & Goals Fire Risk Mapping Proposed Methodology & Data Sets Verification & Validation Conclusions 2

24 : Goals - Project sponsored by European Spatial Agency (ESA) - Implement forest fire-fighting system in Portugal 1. Prevention and mitigation purposes 2. Real-time 3. Field usage - WP 300: R & D methodology for forest fire risk mapping The approach is based on the combination of Earth Observation (EO) information with ancillary data of natural parameters 3

25 Concepts / Definitions Fire Risk: - Likelihood of fire when there is ignition Portugal: arson is a very significant cause of forest fires (arson is very difficult to model, but human activity can be considered) - Within prevention and pre-supression planning phases Ideally represented by: Single figure Evaluated daily Using measured or predicted data Viegas,

26 Fire Risk in Portugal Methods employed by the Instituto de Meteorologia (IM): Angstrom Fire Index: 1960 Modified Nesterov Index: 1988 FFRI: 1994 FWI: Defines risk class by region - Computed for 60 weather stations Meteorological indices based on conventional variables 5

27 Fire Risk Mapping To estimate and represent cartographically: Probability of fire occurrence and potential severity of fire Different approaches: Time scale Variables Long-term: STRUCTURAL - Variables do not change in short lapse of time - More permanent planning of fire-fighting resources Short-term: term: DYNAMIC - Parameters change continuously over time - Decisions on pre-suppression and suppression activities during fire season 6

28 Fuel Types Topography Elevation Slope Aspect Soils Fire History Population Roads Climate... Fire Risk Mapping Methods Temperature Precipitation Relative Humidity Solar Radiation Wind... METEOROLOGICAL e.g., FWI, FFDI, KBDI, SPI, PDSI, HAINES NDVI VEGETATION STATUS / STRESS e.g., NOAA/NESDIS EFPP STRUCTURAL e.g., Chuvieco, MEGAFiRES, JRC, FLAMMAP, CRIF, STORMS DYNAMIC e.g., NFDRS, ICONA, FFRI, FPI NEW APPROACH: ADVANCED or INTEGRATED 7

29 : Integrated Approach Structural Component - Based on Chuvieco et al. (1989, 1997) and Aranha and Gonçalves (2001) Dynamic Component (meteorological component and vegetation status component) - Based on Burgan et al., 1998 (Fire Potential Index - FPI) Both approaches already tested in Mediterranean areas Useful Products: (Daily) Integrated Forest Fire Risk (IFFR) Map Fire Potential Index (FPI) Map (Yearly) Structural Fire Index (SFI) Map 8

30 Integrated Forest Fire Risk Generic flow - chart STRUCTURAL COMPONENT METEOROL. COMPONENT VEGETATION COMPONENT SLOPE ASPECT DAILY Temp Relative Hum. HISTORICAL NDVI DATA SET DAILY NDVI ELEVATION ROADS URBAN State of weather 10 H FUEL MOISTURE COMPOSITE UPDATED LAND COVER MAP RECLASSIFY INTERPOLATION MAX. NDVI MIN. NDVI NDVI MAX. 10-DAY COMPOSITE DEAD FUEL EXT. MOISTURE % FUEL MODEL MAP 10 H FUEL MOISTURE MAP MAX. LIVE RATIO MAP REL. GREENNESS MAP COMBINE NORMALIZE CONVERT TO FRACTION FRACTIONAL 10-H MOISTURE LIVE FUEL RATIO MAP STRUCTURAL INDEX MAP (255-0) F P INDEX MAP (0-100) YEARLY INTEG. FOREST FIRE RISK MAP (1-3) 9

31 Integrated Forest Fire Risk Generic flow - chart STRUCTURAL COMPONENT METEOROL. COMPONENT VEGETATION COMPONENT SLOPE ASPECT DAILY Temp Relative Hum. HISTORICAL NDVI DATA SET DAILY NDVI ELEVATION ROADS URBAN State of weather 10 H FUEL MOISTURE COMPOSITE UPDATED LAND COVER MAP RECLASSIFY INTERPOLATION MAX. NDVI MIN. NDVI NDVI MAX. 10-DAY COMPOSITE DEAD FUEL EXT. MOISTURE % FUEL MODEL MAP 10 H FUEL MOISTURE MAP MAX. LIVE RATIO MAP REL. GREENNESS MAP COMBINE NORMALIZE CONVERT TO FRACTION FRACTIONAL 10-H MOISTURE LIVE FUEL RATIO MAP STRUCTURAL INDEX MAP (255-0) F P INDEX MAP (0-100) YEARLY INTEG. FOREST FIRE RISK MAP (1-3) V & V 2001 FIRE DATA BURNT AREA MAP 2001 LSAT TM Nov

32 Structural Component 25-m resolution sample 3 Fire Risk Classes: Low, Medium, High SLOPE ASPECT ELEVATION ROADS URBAN UPDATED LAND COVER MAP COMBINE STRUCTURAL INDEX MAP (255-0) YEARLY Legend 11

33 Fuel Model Map 25-m Dead Fuel Moisture of Extinction - Based on Rothermel Updated Land Cover Map RECLASSIFY DEAD FUEL EXT. MOISTURE % FUEL MODEL MAP Legend 12

34 Meteorological Component DATA: Temperature Relative humidity State of weather (cloudiness and occurrence Collected at 2:00 PM 60 weather stations of precipitation) METHOD: 1. Compute 10-hour timelag dead fuel moisture of extinction for each station (Fosberg( & Deeming,, 1971) 2. Interpolate across study area (IDW) 13

35 Vegetation Status NDVI DATA: Maximum historical MAX. NDVI MIN. NDVI Minimum historical 10-day composites Obtained from NOAA-AVHRR imagery NDVI Values METHOD: Calculate Maximum Live Ratio & Relative Greenness MAX. & MIN. NDVI (JRC, 4.4 Km) 14

36 NDVI 10- Day Composites, 4.4Km Produced by MVC method from daily NDVI (JRC) Composite September July June August NDVI Values Study area 15

37 Maximum Live Ratio Map Percentage of live fuel load for a given pixel when vegetation is at maximum greenness 16

38 Fire Potential Index (FPI) Map 550-m resolution sample July Fire Risk Classes: Low Medium High Very high FPI Values 17

39 Integrated Forest Fire Risk (IFFR) Map 550-m resolution samples July Fire Risk Classes: Low Medium High IFFR Fire Risk Classes 1

40 Verification & Validation Test Period: 2001 Fire season (June - September) Study Area: Districts: Castelo Branco, Guarda, Viseu, Coimbra e Bragança (665 Freguesias; ha) WRS 203/32 Corresponding to LANDSAT WRS 203/32 Selected for occurrence of numerous and large fires (Approx fires and ha area burned) METHOD: Correlation between fire occurrence and computed indices values 2

41 Burnt Area Map 09/04/ FIRE DATA 11/11/2001 DATA: V & V BURNT AREA MAP 2001 LSAT TM Nov Landsat 5 TM, 9/04/2001 Landsat 7 ETM, 11/11/2001 Ignition points (DGF) METHOD: Change detection in 2001 (MapUp) & visual analysis (RGB 743) RGB 432 RGB 432 RGB 432 3

42 Structural Fire Index vs. Burnt Area SFI Fire Risk Classes Burnt Areas 4

43 Structural Fire Index (SFI) Structural Fire Index (SFI) Study Area (ha) Burnt Areas (ha * 10) Area (ha) SFI SFI Class Class Area (ha) Class Area (%) Burnt Area (ha) Burnt Area (%) Burnt Area/ Total Area (%) High Medium Low Total

44 Fire Density for FPI Fire Density Number Pixels * 1000 (Fires/ Pixels)* Number Pixels Fires / Pixels Fire Potential Index (FPI) 0 6

45 FPI Mean Values Before Fire Day FPI Mean Values Before Fire Days Mean FPI Fire Day - 4 Fire Day - 3 Fire Day - 2 Fire Day - 1 Fire Day Mean FPI STD Days before fire events 7

46 Fire Density for IFFR Fire Density Number Pixels * (Fires/ Pixels)* Number Pixels Fires / Pixels Integrated Fire Risk (IFR) 8

47 IFFR Mean Values Before Fire Day IFFR Mean Values Before Fire Days Mean IFFR Fire Day - 4 Fire Day - 3 Fire Day - 2 Fire Day - 1 Fire Day Mean IFFR STD Days before fire events 9

48 Conclusions Advanced multi-step method to assess daily forest fire risk Integrates proven approaches to combine different data sources Yields several fire risk maps and useful products (RG, Max. Live Ratio, etc.) Some flexibility concerning data requirements Capability to accommodate further improvements Fuel Models (extinction moisture) Optimization of best interpolation methods Identification and inclusion of representative human induced variables 10

49 European Space Agency (ESA) Aknowledgements Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC) Instituto de Meteorologia (IM) Direcção Geral das Florestas (DGF) Robert Burgan (USDA Forest Service, USA) Paulo Barbosa (JRC) Giorgio Libertà (JRC) Ana Sebastian (JRC) José Aranha (UTAD) This research was funded by ESA under the project (ESA Ref. AO/1-3880/01/I-SB). 11

50 - - Prevention and Mitigation of Fire Hazard in Portugal Mário Caetano mario.caetano@igeo.pt Portuguese Geographic Institute, Portugal igeo.pt 12