GCM (~100 km) UCM (~100 m) RCM (~10 km)
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1 Urban climate projections for Central European cities and modelling tools for urban planning Maja Žuvela-Aloise NWP Applications, ZAMG, Vienna, Austria GCM (~100 km) UCM (~100 m) RCM (~10 km)
2 Regional Climate Simulations at the ZAMG Greater Alpine Region 50km 10km Climate simulation past and future based on SRES Scenarios Carpathian Mountains Climate simulation past and future based on SRES Scenarios Austria 4km DISTURBANCE Hindcast-Simulation based on ERA40 10km
3 Regional Climate Modelling at ZAMG - Applications - past and future climate simulations with special focus on high mountain regions (e.g. Alps, Carpathians) Folie 3 - Spatial resolutions: 10-25km, near future: up to below 3km for convection permitting simulations incl. urban parameterisation - Climate Service: continuous ongoing hindcast simulations for impact applications; close collaboration to impact researchers and climate data centers - Sensitivity studies for a better representation of extreme events in the model simulations (heavy precipitation, flood events, drought periods affecting the Greater Alpine Region) ZAMG leads the WG on Evaluation in the CCLM-Community. Very welcome to contact: Dr. Ivonne Anders Ivonne.Anders@zamg.ac.at
4 Project STORM Safeguarding Cultural Heritage through Technical and Organisational Resources Management H2020: Disaster Resilience & Climate Change: Science and innovation for adaptation to climate change Project duration: 6/2016 5/2019 Coordinator: Ingegneria Informatica S.p.A., IT Web:
5 Urban climate in Central European cities and global climate change Long-term goals: establishing a network of urban climatologist in CE modelling of urban climate for cities in complex terrain with variable size and architecture downscaling of future climate scenarios for CE cities standardization of method through usage of Local Climate Zones (LCZ) classification system raising public awareness and providing support for city planning Project duration: 10/2014 9/2015 Funding: International Visegrad Fund (No ) Web:
6 Future climate scenarios EURO-CORDEX - Coordinated Downscaling Experiment - European Domain (EUR-11) IPCC Scenario rcp Mean annual number of summer days (T max 25 C), model ensemble average (11 members) Vienna, AT Brno, CZ Bratislava, SK Szeged, HU Krakow, PL
7 Urban climate model MUKLIMO_3 3D Mikroskaliges Urbanes KLImaMOdell (Sievers and Zdunkowski, 1986; Sievers, 1990; Sievers, 1995) Application for assessment of heat load in urban areas and urban planning Horizontal resolution: m Vertical resolution: m, finer resolution near surface Simulation duration: 24 h Input data: orography and land use Initial and boundary conditions: 1D vertical profile of time-varying atmospheric conditions at the reference station Output data: diurnal cycles of air temperature, wind speed and direction, relative humidity and heat fluxes Parameterization of buildings and vegetation 3-layered vegetation model 15-layered soil model
8 Urban climate: short and long-term simulations MUKLIMO_3 Weather Climate Initialization of the urban model with weather forecast data Calculation of climate inidices with the cuboid method (Früh et al., 2011)
9 Operational weather forecast ALARO: 4.8 km AROME: 2.5 km INCA nowcasting: 1 km MUKLIMO_3: 200 m Limitation of the MUKLIMO_3 model: - no precipitation - no anthropogenic heating - not fully coupled with the mesoscale model - long computational time (6 48 h for 1 day) - model uncertainties: parameterisation, validation
10 Local Climate Zones in Central European Cities Vienna, AT Inhabitants: Elevation: m Krakow, PL Inhabitants: Elevation: m Bratislava, SK Inhabitants: Elevation: m Brno, CZ Inhabitants: Elevation: m Szeged, HU Inhabitants: Elevation: m LCZ Classification: Stewart and Oke, 2012 Method: Bechtel and Daneke, 2012
11 Idealized simulations of Urban Heat Island Vienna, AT Krakow, PL prevailing wind direction Cuboid point: Temperature and wind field, h=5 m, t=1600h T cmax =25 C, rh cmin =40%, v cmax = 3 m/s Bratislava, SK Brno, CZ Szeged, HU
12 Simulations of current climate ( ) Vienna, AT Krakow, PL Bratislava, SK Brno, CZ Szeged, HU
13 Future climate scenarios for Vienna IPCC Scenario RCP4.5 Input: EURO-CORDEX (EUR-11) min.: 7.2 max.: 82.8 mean: 45.4 SU min.: 16.0 max.: 99.0 mean: 61.6 SU min.: 21.3 max.: mean: 70.0 SU SU mean annual number of summer days (T max 25 C)
14 Future climate scenarios for Vienna IPCC Scenario RCP8.5 Input: EURO-CORDEX (EUR-11) min.: 7.2 max.: 82.8 mean: 45.4 SU min.: 16.1 max.: mean: 63.0 SU min.: 40.0 max.: mean: 93.4 SU SU mean annual number of summer days (T max 25 C)
15 Possible heat load mitigation strategies in urban planning Green City: more vegetation, less pavement, enlargement of parks, green traffic corridors, green center vs. green residential areas White City: increase of albedo of roofs and/or walls Shaded City: higher buildings vs. low buildings Blue City: more water surfaces, lakes instead of parks Grey City: changes in building density, build-up vs. forest area expansion
16 Land use category Modelling experiments for urban planning strategies Reference simulation Modified land use Difference in SU
17 Diff. in number of summer days Green City: Increase of city parks Park areas total number of grid cells defined as parks in the reference simulation: 1158 (ha) 10 % - 30% -> localized cooling 100 % -> strong cooling (unrealistic) +10% +30% +100%
18 Blue City: Water temperature all parks modified into water T W = 18 C T W = 23 C
19 Diff. number of summer days City of Vienna: urban development plan New plan for open space and green network intended for pedestrians and cyclists Simulation of planned green areas good coverage of critical areas with excessive heat prioritizing the implementation expected limited local cooling minor cooling effects
20 White City: Roof albedo Albedo = 0.30 Albedo = 0.50 Reference Folie 20 albd = 0.2 albw = 0.3 Albedo = 0.70 Albedo = 0.90
21 White and Green Roofs potential in Vienna Albedo Albedo Green roofs 100% Green roof potential
22 Grey City: Effect of urbanization on urban heat load URBAN SPRAWL Land use modification Difference in mean annual number of summer days URBAN DENSIFICATION and SPRAWL
23 Summary Urban heat islands enhance heat stress and health risks for the urban population. Warming trend in global/regional climate and city growth contribute to excessive heat load in urban areas. Sustainable urban development is needed to mitigate and to adapt to a changing climate. Using urban climate models it is possible to quantify the trends in urban heat load and evaluate efficiency of possible mitigation/adaptation strategies in urban planning.
24 Calculation of climate indices using the cuboid method Conditions potentially leading to heat stress (T max 25 C) air temperature (T), relative humidity (rh) and wind speed (v) T, rh and v are representing the 3 dimensions of a cuboid structure
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