EVACUATION SIMULATION FOR BUILDING DAMAGE CAUSED. Shiori KUBO Rei FUJITA Hidenori YOSHIDA Lalith WIJERATHNE Muneo HORI

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1 EVACUATION SIMULATION FOR BUILDING DAMAGE CAUSED Shiori KUBO Rei FUJITA Hidenori YOSHIDA Lalith WIJERATHNE Muneo HORI

2 BACKGROUND Starting evacuation time for the people escaping from Tsunami Death by the collapse building,4.4% Burn death,1.1% Unknown,1.1% Drowning,92.4% Fig.1 Cause of death by the Great East Japan Earthquake (made by NPA s document) Early Starting evacuation time Rapid and independent-minded evacuation behavior is important Fig.2 Fact-finding investigation about the evacuation from Tsunami - 1 Reference:MLIT Starting evacuation time for the people who were about to be engulfed or engulfed by Tsunami Late 50~60%: Delay of evacuation judgment 20%:Occurrence of obstacles to evacuation behavior Early Safety depends on the way of evacuation Starting evacuation time Fig.3 Fact-finding investigation about the evacuation from Tsunami - 2 Reference:MLIT Late

3 BACKGROUND Rapid and independent-minded evacuation behavior Advance preparation is indispensable based on forecast and supposition Difficult to create various scenarios and methods for evacuation Numerical simulation is needed

4 PAST STUDIES KIYONO etc. : Simulation of Evacuation Behavior in a Disaster by Distinct Element Method Simulation space is limited Examined the adequacy of the model by comparing the result of fact-finding investigation about the evacuation with Broad the evacuation space simulation is not which targeted is applied to the Aonae area in Okushiri island when the Southwest Hokkaido Earthquake was occurred in FUJIOKA etc. : Multi Agent Simulation Model for Evaluating Evacuation Management System Against Tsunami Disaster Ground response and building damages by earthquake is not considered Regarding evacuation as information judgments and associated behaviors, gauge the impact of the evacuation guide by dividing evacuee and evacuation guide In this study Evacuation simulation considering building damages over the wide range of city Grasp the influence on the evacuation behavior from the extent of damage

5 STUDY FLOW HORI etc. : Develop the Integrated Earthquake Simulation (IES) Simulate ground response, structural response and evacuation for constructed city model on the basis of GIS data Ground Response Analysis / Tsunami Simulation Predict the transmitted earthquake motion and tsunami Structural Response Analysis Predict the building damage Exploration data of ground structure Measured data of earthquake and tsunami Construct the fault model Data of the individual building (structural form, properties, etc.) Construct the structure model Evacuation Behavior Simulation Drove evacuation Person s behavior data (moving speed, criterion for judgment, etc.) Construct the evacuation model

6 STRUCTUAL RESPONSE ANALYSIS Model each floor with mass points and linear springs MDOF:Multi Degree of Freedom Input time historical acceleration wave into the bottom of the structure Decide the structural form and properties of structure from its shapes such as the bottom and height of structure provided from GIS data Analysis results are visualized by story drift q Structure Timber Structure RC Structure SRC Structure Discrimination Method Height Less than 12 m Less than 50 m Other than those above Area Damping Constant Property Density (kg/m 3 ) Less than 100 m Less than 70 m Other than those above

7 Acceleration (gal) Acceleration (gal) INPUT EARTHQUAKE MOTION Earthquake Wave The Southern Hyogo Prefecture Earthquake in 1995 The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake Time (sec) Fig.4 Acceleration waveform of the Southern Hyogo prefecture earthquake in 1995 Observing Station Kobe City Kurihara City (Tsukidate) Cycle Shortish Cycle Short Cycle Time (sec) Fig.5 Acceleration waveform of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake Predominant Period T 0 (s) Observation Time(s) 1.0~2.0 0~48 0.2~0.5 30~150

8 ANALYSIS TARGET AREA Center of the Takamatsu City Ogimachi, Block 1 and 2 Plane View Plane View Takamatsu High School Takamatsu City Hall The Hyakujushi Bank, Limited Low-rise apartment house Old Kagawa Prefectural Central Hospital Bird's Eye View Bird's Eye View Kagawa Prefectural Government Takamatsu City Hall Low-rise apartment house The Hyakujushi Bank, Limited

9 Result of SRA - Area 1 (Input wave:the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake in 1995)

10 Result of SRA - Area 1 (Input wave:the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake in 1995)

11 Result of SRA - Area 1 (Input wave:the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake in 1995)

12 EXTRACT BUILDING DAMAGE Structural Response Analysis Construction of the city model supposed to be blocked by the building damages Ignoring building damage Concerning building damages H q Affected zone of damage H y(%) Damaged Structure

13 SIMULATION CONDITIONS Area 1 Area 2 Yobancho Community Center Target Areas and Evacuation Areas Takamatsu-Kougei High School Takamatsu High School Old Yobancho Elementary School Kagawa University, faculty of education north gate Takamatsu Central Park Acceptable Story Drift(q) The Extent of the Impact Damage(%) Model Size Agent Type (Hyogo Earthquake Data) (Hyogo Earthquake Data) (Tohoku Earthquake Data) (Tohoku Earthquake Data) East and West 1245m North and South 900m 20 Resident (Voluntarily Evacuate) East and West 600m North and South 400m Agent Total Number Agent Property Walking speed is supposed to follow a normal distribution with 0.4 of standard deviation and 1.2m/s of average

14 Result of MAS - Area 1 (Input wave: The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Acceptable story drift: 0.010, The extent of the impact damage: 20%)

15 Completion of evacuation(%) Agent total number (people) circumvention change the evacuation area Takamatsu High School Takamatsu Central Park Ignoring building damage Ignoring building damage delay evacuation 40 Undamaged model 20 Tsukidate Tukidate wave model Time(s) 700 increasing the 600 evacuees Undamaged model Tukidate Tsukidate wave model Fig.6 Evacuation v.s. Time Fig.7 Total number of evacuees of each evacuation area

16 Result of MAS - Area 2 (Input wave: The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, acceptable story drift: 0.010, the extent of the impact damage: 20%)

17 Completion of evacuation(%) Ignoring building damage change the evacuation route increasing the travel distance backtracking delay evacuation Time(s) Fig.8 Evacuation v.s. Time Undamaged model Tukidate Tsukidate wave model

18 CONCLUSIONS Add the building damages based on the result of SRA to the city model for evacuation simulation Found that the evacuation behavior and time in concerning structure damages are different from those in ignoring building damages

19 FUTURE TASKS Ground response analysis in which the ground properties of Takamatsu is considered Examinations of the detailed discrimination method about building form and properties in SRA Simulations in considering the addition of agents such as injured persons, evacuation guides and traffics of the vehicle

20 Thank you for your attention