BUST TO BOOM Planning in Western North Dakota. Oil Industry Job Projections. Oil Rigs and Wells. Oil Well Locations & Rigs 10/1/2012

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1 BUST TO BOOM Planning in Western North Dakota Cindy Gray, AICP Senior Associate Lance H. Bernard Associate Cindy Gray, AICP Lance H. Bernard SRF Consulting Group, Inc. Phil Carlson, AICP Tina Goodroad, AICP Stantec MnAPA September 2012 Phil Carlson Senior Planner Tina Goodroad, AICP Senior Planner SRF s Western ND Experience Comprehensive Plans, Transportation Plans, or Land Use/Growth Management Plans for: Williston, ND Wilton, ND Tioga, ND Parshall, ND Bowman, ND Watford City, ND Killdeer, ND Crosby, ND Bottineau, ND* Surrey, ND* Oil Industry Job Projections Environmental Documentation and Highway Design for: Williston NW Bypass and Temporary Truck Reliever Route Williston 18th St. Grade Separation ND Highway 23 two major segments On going technical assistance & training (Vision West ND, Killdeer, and Williston) Source: Lynn Helms, NDDMR Oil Rigs and Wells Oil Well Locations & Rigs Source: Lynn Helms, NDDMR 1

2 Oil Well Locations and Rigs Oil Well Statistics North Dakota Well and Rig Forecast Summary Year Wells Rigs June, , Source: Lynn Helms, NDDMR , , , Hydraulic Fracturing: Fracking Fracking Fracking Fracking 2

3 What is needed to Drill a Well? Truck Servicing a Well Site TRUCKS! TRUCK DRIVERS! PLACES FOR TRUCK DRIVERS TO SLEEP! Truck Statistics Typical Bakken Oil Well Truck Trip Generation One way Truck Trips/Day Source: Truckload Timelines and Lynn Helms, NDDMR, July, 2012 Traffic Growth Major Highway Projects US Highway 2/85 through Williston 9,500 ADT in 2008 with 15 20% trucks 27,000 ADT in 2011 with 35% trucks Some highways are at 40 50% trucks and volumes have tripled or quadrupled 3

4 Bypass Route Alternative & Temporary Truck Reliever Route Severe Housing Shortage 6,000 housing units per year needed in ND during the next decade. Major shortage in Western ND, but felt throughout the state In the meantime, temporary housing and creative housing solutions are abundant. Creative Housing Solutions Crew Camps Williams County, ND Under a bridge in Williston Crew Camps (a.k.a. Man Camps) Developing Crew Camp Area North of Williston Some crew camps use hot bedding, in which oil workers on opposite shifts share sleeping quarters. 4

5 Hotels Hotels are part of the housing solution. Hotel development is abundant (at least six new hotels in Williston in the last three years). Prices in Williston are similar to staying in a major metropolitan area. Availability is extremely limited. Mobile Homes Isolated Developments Springbrook, ND Over 2,000 Acres of Proposed Development Existing City Population of 26. Developer is challenging legality of Springbrook s status as a city. Challenging legal issues. Neighbor against neighbor, family against family Unusual Residential Proposals 700 Unit Hotel Killdeer is approximately 1,000 people Plan adopted in December, proposal submitted in April. City denied. RV Parks Desperation Year round living quarters. 5

6 Industrial Land Uses Pipeyards West of Williston in Williams County Killdeer Industrial Site Natural Gas Processing Plant, Tioga Tanks and Trucks Infill Development Along US Highway 2/85 in Williston Redevelopment Opportunities Agricultural Buildings The farmer applies for a building permit for an agricultural building and after construction, it s occupied by an oil related business. 6

7 Major Oil Company Investment with no Annexation Professional Considerations Often working with City Auditors or a staff person who is not a planner. Staff are sometimes under severe stress. High level of frustration and stress among long time residents Hess Oil Corporate Offices, Tioga, ND Displacement of long-time residents due to cost of living Professional Considerations Often solving basic human needs as a first priority Design and attention to details is often of lesser concern than meeting needs. STRONG property owner rights philosophy Lack of understanding that development presents opportunity to work with developers for parks, trails, sidewalks, etc. Other Planning Issues Redevelopment Opportunities Workforce housing ordinance for essential public services (e.g. schools, hospital, city/county employees) Crew camp ordinances Oil well setbacks Pipelines (gas and crude oil) Truck Parking Power Transmission Lines Concession Stands Emergency Services 7

8 Employee Shortages In case you re thinking Western ND isn t beautiful NDSU Agricultural Extension Station, Williston, ND 8

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10 While You re Busy Making Other Plans Stories From the Edge in Minot s Boom Phil Carlson, AICP Tina Goodroad, AICP Stantec, St. Paul Forces that will shape Minot s future Planning Oil Agriculture Minot Air Force Base Railroads Health Care Education It is not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. Charles Darwin 10

11 Minot Median Home Sale Prices Median Home Sale Prices ND, Bismarck, Grand Forks, Minot Average Sales Price $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 39% of US 78% of US $301,900 $299,100 $266,000 $242,700 $116,820 $126,818 $127,507 $143,525 $164,579 $216,900 $171,385 $221,435 Minot >US +47% Minot US 27% $ * * Sales data are January thru September Sources: Minot Board of Realtors; National Association of Realtors Minot Residential Building Permits Minot Population Projections 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Minot Population Projections Historically and Current Some see more dramatic rise soon Actual (*2010 estimate) 1959 Projection 1969 Projection 1974 Projection 1979 Projection 1986 Low Projection 1986 High Projection 1995 Projection 2002 Projection 2010 Historic Growth 10, Low Projection 2010 Medium Projection * High Projection Limits to Minot Growth: The Donut Analogy You set out 10 donuts for 10 office staff at 8 am They are gone by 9 am This does not translate to a demand for 10 donuts every hour, or 80 donuts in an 8 hour day There is a limit to the demand growth we see now may not continue at this pace for a long time Perceived demand Actual Donuts Consumed Population Projections Ondracek & Witwer study concludes Minot will grow to about 56,000 then level off and even decline moderately after 2026 If oil boom is years vs years, then what? Assumed Minot pop. of 70,000 80,000 in 20 years 11

12 Minot 1966 Color = developed areas in 1966 Black line = 2010 City Limits Blue line = 2 mile growth area Minot 2010 Color = developed areas in 2010 Black line = 2010 City Limits Blue line = 2 mile growth area Minot 1966 Center of Minot in 1966 Minot 2010 Center of Minot has moved south commercial development near South Bypass Minot Growing Five Key Elements Minot Master Plan Airport, RR and Industrial area 2010 Minot developed area Future Residential and Commercial growth mostly NW, SW, & SE Due to shadow of airport, RR and industrial areas 1) Revitalized Downtown 2) Greenway Connections 3) Compact Development 4) Housing Opportunities 5) Transportation 12

13 How We Plan How We Plan Natural Features Water Wetlands Floodplain Steep Slopes Manmade Features Roadways Parks/Trails Commercial Areas Institutional Uses Existing Elements Future Elements Greenway Corridors Roadways Commercial Areas Multi Family Parks/Trails Topography Planning Minot Minot Concept Plan High Low Airport Livingston Creek Souris River Downtown Railroad Hub Dakota Square Mall Puppy Dog Coulee 1 st Larson Coulee 2 nd Larson Coulee Start with the existing wetlands, river valley, and coulees Add the Greenway proposed for the Souris River valley Together these form the backbone of a green connection system for the City Minot Concept Plan Minot Concept Plan Add the existing park and trail system Add new parks and trails in growth areas at the edges of the City and in redeveloping areas inside the existing City Add the existing and future major Commercial and Industrial areas 13

14 Minot Concept Plan Minot Ring Route Expansion Add the existing and future major roadways to complete the Concept Plan for the future of Minot Includes potential new Ring Route around SW and SE Minot, similar to West Bypass and NE Bypass Possible SW & SE Ring Route Draft Future Land Use Plan Shows existing and future City development color code for various land uses Six Growth Areas (plus Downtown) shown as they are expected to develop Future roadway system, park system, greenway connections shown Draft Growth Phasing Plan Shows potential development in future Growth Areas by phase Each phase represents 3 10 years of growth Goal is compact, orderly development Planning Souris River Flooding Spring 2011 Life is what happens to you while you re busy making other plans. John Lennon 14

15 Souris River Project Plans suggest a new wide Greenway along the river bounded by a wall or dike to contain flood waters This Greenway creates an opportunity for park and trail connections to and from Downtown to Oak Park and Roosevelt Park and points beyond Greenway Potential Other cities, such as Bismarck and Grand Forks have developed attractive park and trail systems in flood prone areas near the river Oak Park Oak Park Downtown Roosevelt Park Greenway Connections While the floods have been personally devastating to many Minot residents and businesses, the Souris Valley Project provides an opportunity to create a lasting benefit to the community and not just for flood protection The Comprehensive Plan will incorporate the Souris Valley Project into the overall Plan generally and more specifically with neighborhood plans to be developed later Approval Process Land Use Plan Generalized uses Officially adopted Zoning Detailed uses, standards Official, legal Project Plan Follows Plan, Zoning Approval by Planning Commission, City Council How We Plan Planning Basics Minot Planning Back to Basics Existing Elements Future Elements Greenway Corridors Roadways Commercial Areas Multi Family Parks/Trails 15

16 Minot Planning Back to Basics First: look at the land: wetlands, soils, topography Minot Planning Back to Basics Original plat had 85 units on top of wetlands Minot Planning Back to Basics Issues: Avoid wetlands Add parks, trails Connect to road system Shorter blocks Minot, ND Minot What It Can Be BUST TO BOOM Planning in Western North Dakota Cindy Gray, AICP Lance H. Bernard SRF Consulting Group, Inc. Phil Carlson, AICP Tina Goodroad, AICP Stantec MnAPA September